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Going to war didn't work out well for the Allies; within a year France, the low countries, Denmark, and Norway were occupied by Hitler's Germany.

If they had read Mein Kamph they might have known that Hitler would soon break the treaty and invade the USSR.
1] Would a trade embargo be effective?
2] Would the US support or subvert it?
3] Would it make Germany more likely to invade Russia?
4] Would it make Germany go to war with France and England?
5] Could France and England benefit from delaying the start of the war?
6] Could they stab Germany in the back when it was fully committed in Russia?
7] What would Italy do?
8] What would the US do?
9] What would Japan do?

Any thoughts?
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Russ Williams
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Steve1501 wrote:
1] Would a trade embargo be effective?
2] Would the US support or subvert it?

Presumably the various US companies who continued to do business with Germany when the US was actually at war with Germany would not care about respecting a mere trade embargo. :/
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Steve
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russ wrote:
Steve1501 wrote:
1] Would a trade embargo be effective?
2] Would the US support or subvert it?

Presumably the various US companies who continued to do business with Germany when the US was actually at war with Germany would not care about respecting a mere trade embargo. :/

Never the less, total trade would decline, right?

And Hitler still wants to have living space in Russia, not in France, right?

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Steve1501 wrote:
Going to war didn't work out well for the Allies; within a year France, the low countries, Denmark, and Norway were occupied by Hitler's Germany.


The allies thought Hitler would back off when he saw their war machines building up; he didn't.

Quote:
If they had read Mein Kampf they might have known that Hitler would soon break the treaty and invade the USSR.


Yes maybe, but they hoped it would be too late for him by then.

1] Would a trade embargo be effective?
No. They had tried against Italy, Germany had provided for Mussolini. The same would have happened.

2] Would the US support or subvert it?
No support. The US didn't react much when Germany sent their submarines to attack British cargo ships near the US East coast.

3] Would it make Germany more likely to invade Russia?
Possibly. Without a threat in the west, Hitler might have considered taking down Russia first.

4] Would it make Germany go to war with France and England?
Yes, actually Hitler attacked before his supplies went too far down.

5] Could France and England benefit from delaying the start of the war?
No. they were playing the long game, which made sense at the time. Hitler cut short.

6] Could they stab Germany in the back when it was fully committed in Russia?
The Western leaders were committed to international law and peace, see Locarno and Munich. They would not have attacked unprovoked.

If anything, they would have thought, "let the dogs eat each other."

7] What would Italy do?
Support Germany as Germany had supported them in 1936. Use this to strengthen their position in Africa and the Balkans. Bargain their way into a major diplomatic role.

8] What would the US do?
See above.

9] What would Japan do?
Continue their campaigns in China.
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Antonie van der Tweel
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1. A trade embargo is never effective.
2. Most company's in the US already dealing with Germany would continue doing that.
3. As said in the original post, Germany was going to invade the USSR some time soon.
4. No, Hitler and his staff were surprised by the British declaration of War over Poland.
5. No, they would simply given the Germans more time for plan Z.
6. If they didn't go to war over Poland, why would they over an invasion of the USSR; the USSR would be seen as ac greater enemy than Hitlers Germany.
7. Italy would continue with preparations for an invasion of Greece.
8. Nothing.
9. That is a good question. It was never clear to me why the Japanese did not invade the USSR even before Germany did.
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Steve1501 wrote:
1] Would a trade embargo be effective?

Probably not.
Steve1501 wrote:
2] Would the US support or subvert it?

US would ignore trade embargo.
Steve1501 wrote:
3] Would it make Germany more likely to invade Russia?

No. The operative words are more likely; Germany was going to invade Russia regardless.
Steve1501 wrote:
4] Would it make Germany go to war with France and England?

Ultimately, Hitler was going to attack France anyway to settle the old score from the First World War. He hoped that Britain would stay out, but as history bears out, he was not deterred by British intervention.
Steve1501 wrote:
5] Could France and England benefit from delaying the start of the war?

They could, but would they? Considering the actual sitzkrieg in the West between September '39 and May '40, it doesn't seem as though buying additional time really mattered.
Steve1501 wrote:
6] Could they stab Germany in the back when it was fully committed in Russia?

Again, they could, but would they? Britain certainly wouldn't go it alone; it needed France and France needed Britain. But they didn't attack Germany when it was fully committed to Poland, or later when it invaded Denmark and Norway. They waited for Germany to invade France. I don't believe they would stab Germany in your hypothetical.
Steve1501 wrote:
7] What would Italy do?

Support Germany. Probably invade the Balkans as it actually did.
Steve1501 wrote:
8] What would the US do?

Stay out.
Steve1501 wrote:
9] What would Japan do?

Japan was on its own course, and it believed the US presence in the Far East and the US embargo were the biggest obstacle to its imperial ambitions. Japan would've gone to war with the US, British Commonwealth, and Netherlands as it did in 1941 -- in other words, when it was ready.
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Steve1501 wrote:


If they had read Mein Kamph they might have known that Hitler would soon break the treaty and invade the USSR.


Any thoughts?


Perhaps they had read Mein Kampf and wanted him to go to war with USSR because a) it would ultimately lead to his downfall, which satisfies their wish to eliminate any central european influence, and b) because it would solidify their 'socialist experiment' in what was Russia, thus keeping the folk-spirit there under a rein, or else weaken Stalinism enough (whilst still being central europe's downfall) to enable the west to go in and ostentatiously 'save' Russia thus injecting more western instruction there.
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The trade embargo would have been as effective in stopping German expansion as the trade embargo has been in stopping Russian expansion. (Ask the Crimeans and Ukrainians what I mean.)

The question is then what do England and France do when Germany invades Yugoslavia? When Italy takes over Albania? When Italy invades Greece and Germany joins them to save them?

With no France 1940, there is probably no Soviet/Finland Winter War.

If Germany invades Russia and wins, what do they do with it? (Think Yugoslavia x 10.)

With France not conquered, Japan cannot take Indochina without declaring war on France. And, they needed Indochina to protect their flank to the Dutch East Indies.

Japan went to war because we embargoed oil. That would still have happened, as would have Pearl Harbor.
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avdtweel wrote:

9. That is a good question. It was never clear to me why the Japanese did not invade the USSR even before Germany did.

Because the 1939 border war with the USSR convinced them it was not a good idea.
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Without the huge quantity of equipment -- especially trucks and vehicles -- taken from the invasion of the West, a German invasion of Russia in 1940 or 1941 wouldn't necessarily do much better.

Moreover, without the Manstein/Hitler hookup to tweak the plans of the invasion of France and reinforce Hitler's hold over military decision-making, the Wehrmacht perhaps remains more in the (more conservative) hands of Brauchitsch and Co. Does that mean a more limited set of initial goals in an invasion of Russia, especially fighting with a Wehrmacht that is significantly less motorized than it would be after victory in the west? Probably.

Italy loses in Greece, again, forcing a(nother) German decision on whether or not to invade the Balkans in support. Would the WAllies get off the fence then? Maybe, but timing -- especially in conjunction with the 'when' of an attack on Russia -- will be a huge determining factor on whether the Germans bother with the Balkans.
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Germany continues to arm and goes to war in 1942, as planned. With better weapons, closer to advanced rockets and jets, etc. Much worse for the allies.
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>Germany continues to arm and goes to war in 1942, as planned. With better weapons, closer to advanced rockets and jets, etc. Much worse for the allies.

Plus politically and diplomatically disastrous as well. With that sort of fecklessness, the Nazis might well have won. One can argue-I would-the Allies took a stand much too late, but better late than never.
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DiamondSylph wrote:
Without the huge quantity of equipment -- especially trucks and vehicles -- taken from the invasion of the West, a German invasion of Russia in 1940 or 1941 wouldn't necessarily do much better.


And, presuming no Lend Lease, the Soviets would have had a much tougher time of it, particularly as concerns logistics. The end result might have been Unentschieden, and a negotiated peace.
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Steve1501 wrote:

If they had read Mein Kamph they might have known that Hitler would soon break the treaty and invade the USSR.


Who says that Mein Kamph hadn't been read by the British and/or the French. The book was available in multiple languages and it seems very irresponsible not to read it. Could this explain part of the reason why France and Great Britain did not declare war on the Soviet Union when they invaded Poland on the 17th of September, 1939? Did the western allies already suspected that allied Nazi German and Soviet Russia would go after each other sooner rather than later? Perhaps Mein Kamph had been read.
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huskerdude wrote:
The question is then what do England and France do when Germany invades Yugoslavia? When Italy takes over Albania? When Italy invades Greece and Germany joins them to save them?

With no France 1940, there is probably no Soviet/Finland Winter War.

If Germany invades Russia and wins, what do they do with it? (Think Yugoslavia x 10.)

With France not conquered, Japan cannot take Indochina without declaring war on France. And, they needed Indochina to protect their flank to the Dutch East Indies.

Japan went to war because we embargoed oil. That would still have happened, as would have Pearl Harbor.

Italy took over Albania in April 1939, so nothing changes there. Germany won't invade Yugoslavia and Greece if the British aren't there. They'll just sit back and laugh at Mussolini's plight. The British and French will ignore Italy since they already had their hands full trying to build up an advantage over Germany. Historically it was Italy who declared war.

Mearsheimer argues in Conventional Deterrence that the British and French would never have been able to build up their forces to the extent they thought necessary to prevail in an offensive. They had been deterred from helping Czechoslovakia by the prospect of having to attack the Siegfried Line at odds of 7-1. The British thought they would need to contribute an impossible 40 divisions before an offensive would be feasible.

The Winter War was 1939-1940, so it was not contingent on France 1940 and will happen on schedule. The Soviets were caught with their pants down redeploying and reorganizing in 1941. So if Germany attacks in 1942 as proposed by Jason they'll get stuffed. The lack of Lend-Lease won't be noticeable. Historically it wasn't significant until 1943 when the Soviets were already winning on their own. And they could have made enough trucks to make up for the absence of Lend-Lease ones. They just wouldn't have been able to convert the truck factory to production of light tanks (T-60 and T-70) and SU-76 SPGs. Production of real tanks would have been unaffected.

Oil was embargoed because Japan occupied Indochina. So there will be no embargo or Pearl Harbor. Japan will stick to finishing off China.
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Tank production would have been affected. The US sent so many locomotives to the USSR, that the Soviets didn't have to build any, and converted he factories to tank production.
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Lend-Lease locomotives were trivial, and like the trucks they only started arriving after the Soviets had already turned the tide. It's doubtful whether the Soviets would have even bothered to make up the shortfall. The Soviets started the war with 27,900, lost about 4000 (bringing their total to 23,800 in 1943), produced 442, and received 1966 via L/L, so the L/L contribution was ~6.5% and comprised ~7.5% of the final stock. In 1942 the Soviets sidelined a lot of their rolling stock because they didn't control enough railroad to accommodate it.
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Ronald - sadly, no. France was open to a Russian alliance at the time of the Czech crisis but the UK vetoed the idea. Churchill was also open to a Russian alliance - but Chamberlain's government was not. Lord Halifax in particular was more inclined to seek an appeasement peace with Germany than to ally with communist Russia.

Under Chamberlain, the UK came within inches of declaring war against Russia over Finland during the winter war. There were British troops set to be sent to the Finnish front to fight the Russians, when the German invasion of Norway cut off their route - they wound up diverted to the Narvik campaign instead.

There was no realistic prospect of any alliance with Russia until the Chamberlain government fell, and the successor was named as Churchill rather than Halifax (which was politically a matter of inches in the historical event, in 1940, incidentally...). Halifax may well have expected Germany to eventually fight Russia, but if it did he wanted the UK neutral with if anything a slight inclination toward Germany in the matter.

In 1940, the country needed a government of national unity and Eden and labor wanted Churchill, so that sort of benighted conservatism couldn't take the helm - thankfully. But Halifax was more popular in the Tory party in 1940 than Churchill was - Churchill was the man who "told you so" and that was rather resented than appreciated by most of the government (not back bench) British conservatives.
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I owe you-all my thoughts.

Going to war didn't work out well for the Allies; within a year France, the low countries, Denmark, and Norway were occupied by Hitler's Germany. So, maybe a different plan would have been better.
. . . The Allies didn't attack Germany in Sept. or October of '39 because they were not ready for war. UK especially. After that it was clear that the whole force of the Ger. Army would soon oppose them and the winter came. So, in this timeline with no war declared the Allies can step up preparations for war while trying diplomatically to convince Hitler not to worry about that.


0] If they had read Mein Kamph they might have known that Hitler would soon break the treaty and invade the USSR.
. . . So, their best plan is to prepare, wait, and stab Ger. in the back as soon as he is fully committed in Russia.

1] Would a trade embargo be effective? No, Hitler could trade with Stalin. But, they needed to do "something" and going to war didn't do much to help Poland then or after the war either. This is "something".

2] Would the US support or subvert it? Not support.

3] Would it make Germany more likely to invade Russia? Certainly yes.

4] Would it make Germany go to war with France and England? No, like water off a ducks back, it wouldn't harm Germany enough to matter at all.

5] Could France and England benefit from delaying the start of the war? Yes. Ger. would invade Russia in the spring/summer of '40. As soon as that happened Ger. production would mostly just replace losses. This would allow the Allies to gain on Germany in terms of production. French doctrine would still be terrible. Without defeats there would be no incentive to improve.

6] Could they stab Germany in the back when it was fully committed in Russia? Of course they could. And they should. Germany is far more of a threat to France than Russia will ever be. And, England has always opposed whatever power seemed like it might unite Europe against England. Balance of power and all that. Would they though? Hard to say.

7] What would Italy do? Mostly nothing. He invaded Greece to "one-up" Hitler. Once Poland is crushed the "war" will be over for a while. Just like after Austria was taken. With no war going on Italy does nothing. If/when Hitler invades Russia, what earthly reason would Italy have to get involved?

8] What would the US do? This is a big question. I doubt there would be much done to prepare for war. The 2 ocean fleet is under construction so that continues. No drat law. Little expansion of the army. But, an expansion of the Army Air Corps.

9] What would Japan do? They are in China. The rape of Nanking has already happened. The US opposes this. It will continue to oppose it. Perhaps with arms going into China through Fr. Indo-China. Japan can't invade without war with France (and England Probably). So, I think they don't. Therefore there is no embargo. OTOH, the US might impose an embargo after some other provocation like another rape of a city. If it does, Japan will follow the same course. However, with outa war in Europe FDR has no reason to be as inflexible. Maybe some compromise could be worked out.

These are my thoughts.

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JasonC wrote:


Under Chamberlain, the UK came within inches of declaring war against Russia over Finland during the winter war. There were British troops set to be sent to the Finnish front to fight the Russians, when the German invasion of Norway cut off their route - they wound up diverted to the Narvik campaign instead.



I agree.

In my opinion this was one of the biggest turning points in WW2. If I remember well the french government actually fell over this issue (not supporting Finland).

People often say that Hitler's biggest mistake was declaring war on Russia or the USA. I personally think that invading Norway was the biggest mistake. Had he not done so, I think France and Britain would have sent troops to Finland to fight the Russians. But Hitler did not know that this was being considered by the Western allies, so it is not exactly a mistake. But certainly a huge turning point.

The western allies fighting both Germany and Russia at once, now that is a "what if". It must be remembered that during the fall of 1939 and the winter of 1940 that the west and Germany were barely fighting. Also that until the invasion of France, Russia was considered a bigger enemy than Germany.
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Stalin was planning on invading Germany as much the other way around
Just waiting for the capitalists to destroy each other first
and then clearing the continent and be seen as "liberators" from fascism
Germany was supported in the West to address such contingency
but as history shows, it couldn't do it by itself

If the western powers didn't declare war on Germany from the start
either UK/Fra would end up fighting the URSS when it invaded France
or the US would have entered the war to prevent a rising regional hegemon
or during the Cold War, the Iron Courtain would have reached the Rhin
 
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Pastor_Mora wrote:
Stalin was planning on invading Germany as much the other way around


Umm, no. Just no.
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wifwendell wrote:
Pastor_Mora wrote:
Stalin was planning on invading Germany as much the other way around


Umm, no. Just no.


Depends on how you define "planning" - Zhukov proposed one in May 1941 and in January 1941 the Soviets held a 10-day map wargame on it. Where they ready for it ? No - but they did have the plans for it, just like every major general staff had and has.
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eddy_sterckx wrote:
wifwendell wrote:
Pastor_Mora wrote:
Stalin was planning on invading Germany as much the other way around


Umm, no. Just no.


Depends on how you define "planning" - Zhukov proposed one in May 1941 and in January 1941 the Soviets held a 10-day map wargame on it. Where they ready for it ? No - but they did have the plans for it, just like every major general staff had and has.


Which is meaningless. Those plans are mostly prospective, they did not imply any serious commitment to carry it out. With the level of animosity between Germany and USSR, it would be shocking if none of these countries had plans in case war broke out, just like the US and the USSR had during the Cold War.
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