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Subject: German Election Results rss

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Bojan Ramadanovic
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Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song
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Andre
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Per Trump, we're not supposed to care about Europe anymore. they aren't paying their fair share for NATO anyway.

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Junior McSpiffy
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bramadan wrote:

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


If you are trying to get ducks to have sex in a hurricane, it's not unfair to use a song as a mnemonic device.
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Dickie Crickets
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I'm not worried. The far-right gaining power in Germany... what's the worst that could happen?
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Mac Mcleod
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/05/22/world/europe/...


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Amid a migrant crisis, economic inequality, growing disillusionment with the European Union and a sense of lost national identity, right-wing parties in a growing number of European countries have made electoral gains. The right-wing parties included below range across a wide policy spectrum, from populist and nationalist to far-right neofascist.


It's not just germany.

Italy seems to be doing something correct (not "right").
 
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I can't tell. Is this the end of Merkel's term?
 
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Merkel will be chancellor again, but the coalition is going to be weaker than just the CDU/SPD grand coalition she was hopung for to keep AfD out of power.

Short term, this isnt a big deal. Merkel is still on charge and policy isnt going to change much, right now at leazt. Long term? If AfD can hold onto thier seats or start winning local elections, this is bad. Germany had been as immune to the right nationalistic populism of Hungary, Greece and Poland. To see AfD come so far so fast is a bit disheartening, if not surprising.....

Darilian
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Hail the return of our lost one.
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Mac Mcleod
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whac3 wrote:
Hail the return of our lost one.


Aye! Woot!

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Darilian wrote:
Merkel will be chancellor again, but the coalition is going to be weaker than just the CDU/SPD grand coalition she was hopung for to keep AfD out of power.

Short term, this isnt a big deal. Merkel is still on charge and policy isnt going to change much, right now at leazt. Long term? If AfD can hold onto thier seats or start winning local elections, this is bad. Germany had been as immune to the right nationalistic populism of Hungary, Greece and Poland. To see AfD come so far so fast is a bit disheartening, if not surprising.....

Darilian
yes, anothor term for Mutti Merkel, which I think is a bad thing all in all. Such a long term as head of government stifles new ideas, leads to tunnel vision and increases the chance that the coalition will not see the end of it's term. That said, perhaps now that she is forced to work with liberals (economically right and socially left) and greens she may be forced to accept new policies.

On the AfD, let's face it, it was inevitable that eventually the (not center) right found it's own voice in Germany as well. WW2 is long past, and Nazi comparisons are not particularly apt, despite the AfD housing some pretty ugly voices. In fact, 12.6% of the votes is rather tame. The max potential for such a party is around 20% of votes in a general election, if our PVV (Geert Wilders) is anything to go by.

What I found shocking to learn in the various reporting around the elections is how many Germans live in poverty despite it being the richest nation in the EU. Wealth inequality is at play here. Another strike for progressive taxation and wealth redistribution.
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bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?


It is interesting on a number of levels.

AfD is primarily popular in the east. Merkel is going to have to do something to balance the east and west, the have-nots and the haves, so as to prevent AfD digging in in those areas.

FDP has roared back from the dead (they were wiped out last time) and are looking likely to be in the ruling coalition.

The coalition is likely to be a very fragile one - CDU/CSU and the FDP isn't really enough. Merkel would like to add in the Greens. The Greens and FDP agree on a lot of aspects of social liberalism but are poles apart when it comes to economic policy.

As for refugee policy then I think outwardly nothing will change. The policy has toughened up over the past year or so anyway. The massive influx of refugees has lessened, there still is an influx, but there is not perceived to be the mass movement across Europe. Finally there has been enough time that recent refugees are beginning to integrate well into their new communities - although local politicians say that is despite little support from the Bundestag.

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Michael
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Darilian wrote:
Merkel will be chancellor again, but the coalition is going to be weaker than just the CDU/SPD grand coalition she was hopung for to keep AfD out of power.

Short term, this isnt a big deal. Merkel is still on charge and policy isnt going to change much, right now at leazt. Long term? If AfD can hold onto thier seats or start winning local elections, this is bad. Germany had been as immune to the right nationalistic populism of Hungary, Greece and Poland. To see AfD come so far so fast is a bit disheartening, if not surprising.....

Darilian


It took me a while to comment, because after voting I went to a game night yesterday. Politics were a subject, but my massive last minute win at Machi Koro (orchards and wheat, baby) was more important.

Darilian is right, Merkel will be Chancellor again, but the coalition will change. The Social Democrats are expected to pull out which leaves us with just one likely possibility right now:

A coalition of CDU (conservatives, Merkel's party), FDP (liberal democrats, that's liberal in the classic sense, you Yanks) and the Greens. Negotiations will be tough though, because the Greens and the FDP don't get along very well.

As to AfD, their success is regrettable, but it's more of a change in party dynamics than a change in the political spectrum of the population, if you ask me.

These people have always been around in similar numbers, it's just that now there's a party that manages to unite them, when in earlier times they used to split their votes among several of the more conservative established parties and some extreme right fringe parties.

Right now they manage to bundle a lot of fears and concerns into some success, but ultimately they are a very divided and ineffectual bunch themselves and will probably lose some appeal when they have to do actual work in parliaments. I expect them to stay around, but more around the 5 to 10 percent mark.

Merkel's CDU has lost many conservatives to AfD because she is perceived to give up lots of traditonal conservative positions, just like Social Democrats are losing voters to the more traditionally left wing party The Left. A process we have seen in many countries in the past two decades I think.

Edit: slightly ninjaed by Andy and Jasper who make good points about the coalition and refugee policy.
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Merkel MUST form a coalition with FDP and Greens, it is the only way for the next government, if they don't find consent it means new elections.

What I think is good that the grand coalition is over, everyone has gotten tired with it, if black, yellow and green are able to form a new coalition then I hope it will be good for Germany and Europe.

If not? I'm a bit scared of another election process, maybe the AfD could gain even more voters?
OTOH - maybe the voters think better of it next time.

Interesting times.
The "duel" of Trump and Kim is more disturbing by far though.
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Andy Leighton
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being wrote:
Merkel MUST form a coalition with FDP and Greens, it is the only way for the next government, if they don't find consent it means new elections.


Well technically I suppose she could try to form a minority government with the FDP. Although that would be difficult and would probably rely a lot on good will from the SPD and Greens when it came to crunch votes. It doesn't seem likely to last the full term but could get them through this tricky period without immediately having another election which may not be any more decisive.

Quote:
If not? I'm a bit scared of another election process, maybe the AfD could gain even more voters?
OTOH - maybe the voters think better of it next time.


Another interesting point is how the voters will react to Petry (one of AfD's leaders and more moderate voices) walking out and saying she will sit as an independent.
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Jasper
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andyl wrote:
being wrote:
Merkel MUST form a coalition with FDP and Greens, it is the only way for the next government, if they don't find consent it means new elections.


Well technically I suppose she could try to form a minority government with the FDP. Although that would be difficult and would probably rely a lot on good will from the SPD and Greens when it came to crunch votes. It doesn't seem likely to last the full term but could get them through this tricky period without immediately having another election which may not be any more decisive.
A minority coalition certainly CAN work and sit out it's full term. It just requires a huge amount of political legwork by it's leaders and enough support by the party to insure not every issue is blown up to crisis proportions. It's actually a very charming form of coalition if it works, as it is very flexible and can achieve policy breakthroughs on many issues. However, Merkel seems very ill suited to this style of leadership, so I don't think it will happen.

Quote:
If not? I'm a bit scared of another election process, maybe the AfD could gain even more voters?
OTOH - maybe the voters think better of it next time.
My gut feeling is new elections will put the CDU and Merkel in a very negative light, possibly even engendering a crisis of leadership. It will almost certainly be beneficial to AfD, they still have everything to gain.

I think Merkel is willing to compromise quite a bit to make the larger coalition work. And she's a crafty enough politician to get away with it, while seeming to not give away much at all. Like or loathe her, she is very good at what she does.
 
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It was interesting to see that in Germany as in the US, the greatest support for anti-immigration parties was from parts of the country with the fewest immigrants.
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Trey Chambers
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bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


Uh, your white power supremacist party got 13%. Ours gets 45% or more and wins a lot of elections, often with some voter suppression. So, yea, we have bigger problems here, sorry.
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Lee Fisher
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Can someone translate into Die Macher terms?
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


Uh, your white power supremacist party got 13%. Ours gets 45% or more and wins a lot of elections, often with some voter suppression. So, yea, we have bigger problems here, sorry.


Oh look it's a "conservatives and the Republican party are white supremacists" gag. It's been soooo long since we've seen one of these posts around here


Would you care to explain the "fine people on both sides" at a white supremacist march comment in a way that makes it clear Trump is not a white supremacist?
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


Uh, your white power supremacist party got 13%. Ours gets 45% or more and wins a lot of elections, often with some voter suppression. So, yea, we have bigger problems here, sorry.


Oh look it's a "conservatives and the Republican party are white supremacists" gag. It's been soooo long since we've seen one of these posts around here


Sorry, I guess I meant "the party that most white supremacists vote for", not "the party of white supremacists". It's just getting harder and harder to tell the difference between the two these days.
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


Uh, your white power supremacist party got 13%. Ours gets 45% or more and wins a lot of elections, often with some voter suppression. So, yea, we have bigger problems here, sorry.


Oh look it's a "conservatives and the Republican party are white supremacists" gag. It's been soooo long since we've seen one of these posts around here


Sorry, I guess I meant "the party that most white supremacists vote for", not "the party of white supremacists". It's just getting harder and harder to tell the difference between the two these days.


How funny since white supremacists are an exceedingly small group in both numbers and as a percentage of the population. You can just as easily make a stupid comment like the Democrats are "the party that most black supremacists, communists, and other radical groups vote for" and you would technically be just as correct.

I've never said the Republicans don't have more issues with groups like white supremecists then the Democrats do before you try that tactic. Bringing up republicans in a conversation about german politics is asinine at best.


Yea, I forgot how much power and influence black supremacists and communists have in our society.
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Mac Mcleod
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


Uh, your white power supremacist party got 13%. Ours gets 45% or more and wins a lot of elections, often with some voter suppression. So, yea, we have bigger problems here, sorry.


Oh look it's a "conservatives and the Republican party are white supremacists" gag. It's been soooo long since we've seen one of these posts around here


Sorry, I guess I meant "the party that most white supremacists vote for", not "the party of white supremacists". It's just getting harder and harder to tell the difference between the two these days.


How funny since white supremacists are an exceedingly small group in both numbers and as a percentage of the population. You can just as easily make a stupid comment like the Democrats are "the party that most black supremacists, communists, and other radical groups vote for" and you would technically be just as correct.

I've never said the Republicans don't have more issues with groups like white supremecists then the Democrats do before you try that tactic. Bringing up republicans in a conversation about german politics is asinine at best.


Okay, it's not funny. It's deadly serious. To me, mainly because I believe the nationalist/racist/white supremacist constellation of beliefs is more likely to lead to rash conflicts and outright war- even with nuclear nations. Then secondarily because it turns potential profitable citizens into cost centers by unnecessarily criminalizing citizens as well as driving them to criminality due to despair in the first place.

That said, ~9% of americans think being a white supremacist is okay as of august 21,2017*. That's roughly 22 million american citizens. That's WAY too many.

What are your feelings on white supremacists Krazy?
Are they okay?
Would they make a good neighbor? I don't.
Do you think they are prone to violence? I do.
Do you think they deny equal rights to non-white citizens? I do.
Do you think they are good for our democracy? I don't.

*
http://theweek.com/speedreads/719794/poll-9-percent-american...

“As you grow older, you’ll see white men cheat black men every day of your life, but let me tell you something and don’t you forget it—whenever a white man does that to a black man, no matter who he is, how rich he is, or how fine a family he comes from, that white man is trash”
― Harper Lee, To Kill a Mockingbird
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Trey Chambers
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maxo-texas wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Shampoo4you wrote:
bramadan wrote:
Is RSP asleep or too much in a Trump stupor?

Best showing for populist right and worst for two core mainstream parties in Germany since WW2.
Prospect for a slim, ideologically divided majority and political instablity in the heart of EU.
Rightward swing by CSU (not to mention FDU) and almost no chance for any accomodation with Marcon on fiscal union getting through Bundestag.
What happens to refugee policy now?

I was expecting 11 page thread here but there is nothing except
hurricanes and sex-with-ducks song


Uh, your white power supremacist party got 13%. Ours gets 45% or more and wins a lot of elections, often with some voter suppression. So, yea, we have bigger problems here, sorry.


Oh look it's a "conservatives and the Republican party are white supremacists" gag. It's been soooo long since we've seen one of these posts around here


Sorry, I guess I meant "the party that most white supremacists vote for", not "the party of white supremacists". It's just getting harder and harder to tell the difference between the two these days.


How funny since white supremacists are an exceedingly small group in both numbers and as a percentage of the population. You can just as easily make a stupid comment like the Democrats are "the party that most black supremacists, communists, and other radical groups vote for" and you would technically be just as correct.

I've never said the Republicans don't have more issues with groups like white supremecists then the Democrats do before you try that tactic. Bringing up republicans in a conversation about german politics is asinine at best.


Okay, it's not funny. It's deadly serious. To me, mainly because I believe the nationalist/racist/white supremacist constellation of beliefs is more likely to lead to rash conflicts and outright war- even with nuclear nations. Then secondarily because it turns potential profitable citizens into cost centers by unnecessarily criminalizing citizens as well as driving them to criminality due to despair in the first place.

That said, ~9% of americans think being a white supremacist is okay as of august 21,2017*. That's roughly 22 million american citizens. That's WAY too many.

What are your feelings on white supremacists Krazy?
Are they okay?
Would they make a good neighbor? I don't.
Do you think they are prone to violence? I do.
Do you think they deny equal rights to non-white citizens? I do.
Do you think they are good for our democracy? I don't.

*
http://theweek.com/speedreads/719794/poll-9-percent-american...

“As you grow older, you’ll see white men cheat black men every day of your life, but let me tell you something and don’t you forget it—whenever a white man does that to a black man, no matter who he is, how rich he is, or how fine a family he comes from, that white man is trash”
― Harper Lee, To Kill a Mockingbird


22 million Americans explains a lot of Trump's votes in spite of his rather lengthy list of transgressions.
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Sean;

Face it: the current POTUS is the face of contemporary white supremacy. This is simply a fact. What you or anyone chooses to do with or about that fact is something else but pretending it is not a fact makes no sense. It simply is.
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
whac3 wrote:
Sean;

Face it: the current POTUS is the face of contemporary white supremacy. This is simply a fact. What you or anyone chooses to do with or about that fact is something else but pretending it is not a fact makes no sense. It simply is.


I never said that he was not. Someone went after me trying to get me to answer for some post that was not mine. I don't even know why the heck he was asking me.

I was commenting to someone else about whether the entire party represents "contemporary white supremacy."

I am reluctant to want to brand any party that way but the Republicans do seem to be going along with Trump. Making excuses for them went beyond the ridiculous a long time ago. If they're not the white supremacist party I think in practice they may as well be. I say that as someone who registered to vote in the US as not affiliated with a party but who only ever really voted Republican.
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