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Subject: This lack of stock is odd (what happened) rss

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Alex Norris
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Okay, I really feel like speculating on this lack of stock, because I think it is odd and it is very interesting. I feel like making a thread to see who can reduce the future correctly.

Possibility 1 (most likely): Fallout is a huge franchise. Video gamers have eaten up the stock of this board game because it is Fallout.

Possibility 2 (maybe): this was just a small print run, or we have only seen wave 1 of the first print run

Possibility 3 (unlikely): there was some licensing issue or IP problem, and Bethesda asked FFG to pull the game from shelves. This seems unlikely since they already did the game Doom, but I could still see it as a possibility. I know there is a sea of legal paperwork to make things like this, and something could have been missed or infringed on. (This idea came from the fact hat FFG has this game listed as “not yet released on their website”)

Please leave your own ideas, and then after a few months we can see which idea is the right one!

Thanks for your participation
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Ryan Rau
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I could see this being a combination of #1 and #2
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Nathan Ehlers
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Eh. It's Christmas time and the game went to major retailers. It's a recognizable IP, so uncle Bernie would pick it up for his niece without knowing what it is exactly. The MSRP is the right place to make it a good gift for the video or board gamer in your life.

I'm not surprised, but I do expect it to be restocked fairly quickly since Asmodee/FFG is much more atuned to the toy market these days. You might not get a copy in time for Christmas at this point, but that's how things usually work with popular toys.
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Paul DeStefano
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I'm not sure I would define the lack of stock of an anticipated and popular product destined to sell out as 'odd'. This is nothing compared to the crippling supply problem FFG had at the launch of Star Wars Destiny.
Especially since many FLGS have piles of Fallout.
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Ryan DeLano
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It's definitely not odd, especially for FFG. More often than not, their initial print run of new games is sold out fairly instantly. See Arkham Horror LCG, Star Wars Destiny, etc.
 
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Alex Norris
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Praxus wrote:
It's definitely not odd, especially for FFG. More often than not, their initial print run of new games is sold out fairly instantly. See Arkham Horror LCG, Star Wars Destiny, etc.


I think it’s odd because there was almost no buzz for this game on BGG. That was my direction with this. I see now that I forgot to insert this in the original post.
 
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Geoff Speare
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I find this lack of stock disturbing.
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Nathan Ehlers
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I don't think it's a game for the bgg crowd (which, makes up a very small percentage of the board gaming world). Even the most gracious reviews so far are trending towards negative on the game. I think it's a game being pedaled on the IP for fans of the IP.
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Jean-Philippe Thériault
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Fallout is a huge video game franchise, but board gaming is still a bit of a niche hobby. FFG has to weigh carefully the two when deciding how much to produce. Also, it's Xmas.

ALL the board gaming companies are doing major releases and there's only a few manufacturers that make board game parts. It's possible FFG had to deal with the factories already being busy building games for other people and not having the volume they wanted. I received three Kickstarters within the last 2 weeks and another one is getting here in two days, and that's not including all the new stuff going direct to FLGSs. FFG itself released Game of Thrones Catan, new Sid Meier's Civ and an expansion to Mansions of Madness in the last month or so (as well as LCG releases). Asmodee their parent company just released Pandemic Legacy S2 which was pretty much a guaranteed hit, so they could have had to make tough decisions about production and made sure more of those got made. And so on.

Let's just say that being too hot for the amount you produced is a way more desirable problem than being stuck with inventory. So a company will likely keep their sales estimates on the conservative end.
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Shelby Babb
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galfridus wrote:
I find this lack of stock disturbing.


Don't you mean "I find -your- lack of stock disturbing."

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Geoff Speare
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San Dee Jota wrote:
galfridus wrote:
I find this lack of stock disturbing.


Don't you mean "I find -your- lack of stock disturbing."



You are free to use this more appropriate line, with proper hand gesture of course, at the FLGS of your choice.
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Alex Norris
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galfridus wrote:
I find this lack of stock disturbing.


I find it disturbing that FFG has this game listed as “not yet released”
 
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Alextnorris wrote:
Praxus wrote:
It's definitely not odd, especially for FFG. More often than not, their initial print run of new games is sold out fairly instantly. See Arkham Horror LCG, Star Wars Destiny, etc.


I think it’s odd because there was almost no buzz for this game on BGG. That was my direction with this. I see now that I forgot to insert this in the original post.


This.

They announced it a few months back, but the release of it was pretty quiet and reviews were the same.

By the time I realized it was launched on BF, most places were already OOS. I lucked into a copy purely because a friend runs our local GameStop and he hooked me up with the one copy they received.
 
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Ben Bosmans
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I have no problem with the out of stock status.

I preferred going along with Legacy of Dragonholt and other games until everyone has had a good number of sessions and I can evaluate if I need another fantasy based game on my shelves...



This being said ... I was never really a fan of the franchise. I think I bought 2 different copies of the video game ages ago and I never made it outside of the Ship/Start/bunker? in any serious way.

I hated the look/style and when I saw the rule book with the exact same style, I decided to wait and see the comments after >6 months...

So relax: more than enough boardgames to play these days. Fallout will be available for years to come.
 
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Brett Leeson
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Nothing really odd about it. I talked to someone at FFG on Friday when trying to track down my own copy, and it sounds like they just underestimated quite how high the demand for this would be. They did a good sized first run, using what they thought were optimistic but realistic sales estimates, and the demand outstripped it by a lot more than they expected. Not complicated.

As I was told; anybody who thinks they has a crystal ball and knows how fast something will sell is crazy. They knew Destiny would be big, they stocked a TON of it, and it still sold out faster than they imagined. Then they went big on the second wave of it.

They've done other video game licenses in the past - several iterations of Doom, Xcom...and those have been decent sellers for them but never really flown off the shelves. It sounds like they just didn't expect Fallout, based on their estimates, pre-orders, etc, to be *as* immediately in demand as it turned out to be. Happens sometimes.
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Alex Norris
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CrookedWook wrote:
Nothing really odd about it. I talked to someone at FFG on Friday when trying to track down my own copy, and it sounds like they just underestimated quite how high the demand for this would be. They did a good sized first run, using what they thought were optimistic but realistic sales estimates, and the demand outstripped it by a lot more than they expected. Not complicated.

As I was told; anybody who thinks they has a crystal ball and knows how fast something will sell is crazy. They knew Destiny would be big, they stocked a TON of it, and it still sold out faster than they imagined. Then they went big on the second wave of it.

They've done other video game licenses in the past - several iterations of Doom, Xcom...and those have been decent sellers for them but never really flown off the shelves. It sounds like they just didn't expect Fallout, based on their estimates, pre-orders, etc, to be *as* immediately in demand as it turned out to be. Happens sometimes.


This doesn’t explain why FFG has it listed as “not yet released” on their website
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Alextnorris wrote:
CrookedWook wrote:
Nothing really odd about it. I talked to someone at FFG on Friday when trying to track down my own copy, and it sounds like they just underestimated quite how high the demand for this would be. They did a good sized first run, using what they thought were optimistic but realistic sales estimates, and the demand outstripped it by a lot more than they expected. Not complicated.

As I was told; anybody who thinks they has a crystal ball and knows how fast something will sell is crazy. They knew Destiny would be big, they stocked a TON of it, and it still sold out faster than they imagined. Then they went big on the second wave of it.

They've done other video game licenses in the past - several iterations of Doom, Xcom...and those have been decent sellers for them but never really flown off the shelves. It sounds like they just didn't expect Fallout, based on their estimates, pre-orders, etc, to be *as* immediately in demand as it turned out to be. Happens sometimes.


This doesn’t explain why FFG has it listed as “not yet released” on their website


Lazy web support didnt change the icon?
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Alextnorris wrote:
CrookedWook wrote:
Nothing really odd about it. I talked to someone at FFG on Friday when trying to track down my own copy, and it sounds like they just underestimated quite how high the demand for this would be. They did a good sized first run, using what they thought were optimistic but realistic sales estimates, and the demand outstripped it by a lot more than they expected. Not complicated.

As I was told; anybody who thinks they has a crystal ball and knows how fast something will sell is crazy. They knew Destiny would be big, they stocked a TON of it, and it still sold out faster than they imagined. Then they went big on the second wave of it.

They've done other video game licenses in the past - several iterations of Doom, Xcom...and those have been decent sellers for them but never really flown off the shelves. It sounds like they just didn't expect Fallout, based on their estimates, pre-orders, etc, to be *as* immediately in demand as it turned out to be. Happens sometimes.


This doesn’t explain why FFG has it listed as “not yet released” on their website


William Aull is most likely correct. I've been checking FFG's website almost daily for several years and it's fairly common for things to not be updated properly, especially when it's a busy time of year. The Asmodee site is even worse. They still have the Conan Khitai expansion listed as "in development" and it came out months ago. It's best not to overthink this stuff.
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Alex Norris
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DancingFool wrote:
Alextnorris wrote:
CrookedWook wrote:
Nothing really odd about it. I talked to someone at FFG on Friday when trying to track down my own copy, and it sounds like they just underestimated quite how high the demand for this would be. They did a good sized first run, using what they thought were optimistic but realistic sales estimates, and the demand outstripped it by a lot more than they expected. Not complicated.

As I was told; anybody who thinks they has a crystal ball and knows how fast something will sell is crazy. They knew Destiny would be big, they stocked a TON of it, and it still sold out faster than they imagined. Then they went big on the second wave of it.

They've done other video game licenses in the past - several iterations of Doom, Xcom...and those have been decent sellers for them but never really flown off the shelves. It sounds like they just didn't expect Fallout, based on their estimates, pre-orders, etc, to be *as* immediately in demand as it turned out to be. Happens sometimes.


This doesn’t explain why FFG has it listed as “not yet released” on their website


William Aull is most likely correct. I've been checking FFG's website almost daily for several years and it's fairly common for things to not be updated properly, especially when it's a busy time of year. The Asmodee site is even worse. They still have the Conan Khitai expansion listed as "in development" and it came out months ago. It's best not to overthink this stuff.


But that’s the point! It’s exciting!
 
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Keith Hammons
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I don't think DOOM the boardgame flew off the shelves quite like this; perhaps they used that as a benchmark.
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My hunch in availability is that they likely ran a normal print for their forecast - but the distribution is spread out more than a normal game of theirs...

Gamestop has it as well this go round - so it's more widely available than a standard board game of theirs.
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magicbus1966 wrote:
I don't think DOOM the boardgame flew off the shelves quite like this; perhaps they used that as a benchmark.


Yeah, there's a few posts from someone who claims they talked to someone from FFG and they said they used X-Com and Doom as benchmarks, since those were their other games based on video games. I think they just didn't expect this, kinda like how they didn't anticipate the success of Arkham Horror LCG.
 
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Brett Leeson
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DancingFool wrote:
magicbus1966 wrote:
I don't think DOOM the boardgame flew off the shelves quite like this; perhaps they used that as a benchmark.


Yeah, there's a few posts from someone who claims they talked to someone from FFG and they said they used X-Com and Doom as benchmarks, since those were their other games based on video games. I think they just didn't expect this, kinda like how they didn't anticipate the success of Arkham Horror LCG.


That was me. I play over at the FFG Game Center in Roseville all the time, know some of the FFG employees, have done playtesting on a few different games over the years.

I don't think it was a big trade secret or anything but yeah what I heard was that at least in part they looked at the success of XCom and Doom (both of which, I got the impression, are decent sellers but as you said, maybe don't fly off the shelves) and the pre-orders they received, and took a stab at what the demand would be. And it turned out to be much higher than they'd anticipated.

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CrookedWook wrote:
DancingFool wrote:
magicbus1966 wrote:
I don't think DOOM the boardgame flew off the shelves quite like this; perhaps they used that as a benchmark.


Yeah, there's a few posts from someone who claims they talked to someone from FFG and they said they used X-Com and Doom as benchmarks, since those were their other games based on video games. I think they just didn't expect this, kinda like how they didn't anticipate the success of Arkham Horror LCG.


That was me. I play over at the FFG Game Center in Roseville all the time, know some of the FFG employees, have done playtesting on a few different games over the years.

I don't think it was a big trade secret or anything but yeah what I heard was that at least in part they looked at the success of XCom and Doom (both of which, I got the impression, are decent sellers but as you said, maybe don't fly off the shelves) and the pre-orders they received, and took a stab at what the demand would be. And it turned out to be much higher than they'd anticipated.



Those are good news : such succes would mean expansions soon hopefully (but after a reprint for people who have missed the first print obv.).
 
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Mike Brown
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Either way plenty of other games to buy this time of the year. We can always come back to buying this down the road, their loss at this time for not fully understanding the market.
 
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