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Subject: The Rarity vs. Frequency Puzzle rss

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Richard Lewis
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Hello all,
There doesn't seem to be a product simulator out there for the old Mage Knight miniatures game. Is there a formula that allows one to convert the FRQ listed in most checklists into a rarity or draw percentage? Found a website that gets close to listing it, but not all miniatures are available. Has anyone out there cracked the draw algorithm yet? I have the miniatures that I have pulled for my own Rebellion Starter Set (Alpha) and four Series 1 Boosters, but do not have enough data to draw any conclusions. Let me know so I can create a true product simulator for this game. Otherwise, if anyone out there opens a sealed starter or booster, post it here so we can crack this thing.

Example:
Rebellion Starter (Alpha): 002, 007, 027, 049, 055, 060, 077, 090, 123, 127
Series 1 Booster: 002, 021, 065, 085, 133
Series 1 Booster: 022, 036, 038, 070, 115
Series 1 Booster: 013, 016, 017, 141, 155
Series 1 Booster: 006, 018, 054, 070, 123
 
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T Alson
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There were six overlapping rarity levels in the early sets, with collation reports varying wildly from set to set and even within a given set. The occasional addition of chase level pieces also skewed results.

Battle Planner had a booster draft tool that randomized figures in a given set. There is zero indication that it was as random as tangible product.

Good luck.
 
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Richard Lewis
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Thanks for pointing me towards the battle planner. More data than I have now at any rate.
 
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Richard Lewis
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Update:
Not sure if this has anything to do with the rarity scope, but I have discovered the following pattern; it has something to do with the casing of each miniature. Wizkids packaged their Mage Knight miniatures with clear, white, or blue casings. When one opens a starter set, one finds 6 miniatures with clear casings, 2 with white casings, and 2 with blue casings. Half this amount with a booster pack. It seems that four FRQ categories can appear within each casing:

Clear Casings: FRQ 1, 2, 3, or 4
White Casings: FRQ 2, 3, 4, or 5
Blue Casings: FRQ 3, 4, 5, or 6

I'm not sure if each FRQ has a 25% chance within each casing color, but it should be simple enough to extrapolate an algorithm from this data.
 
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T Alson
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Those were indeed a color coded rarity designator for packing. In early sets, white holders were for Unique rarity. In later sets, blue was for Uniques. Yellow and green were also in use in some sets for various rarity levels. Pretty sure I even found a pink one once.

I think you'll find that the actual packing was far more random than any algorithm might be able to replicate. Can I ask why you would want to bother?
 
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Richard Lewis
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I enjoy game analytics as a hobby; the older and more unknown the game, the better. I like componentry breakdowns especially and when I run into a game that (to my strange little mind) has yet had a complete breakdown, I'll get my hands on as much as I can and try to break the code. I have games on my shelf I've yet to play, but I have a complete analytical understanding of everything about it. Hell, I'll set up BattleLore (the good edition) just to look at it in its ready-to-play state. There's something very satisfying about the whole microcosm a game world creates I suppose.
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