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Per Glöde
Sweden
Svitjod
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One of the ideas behind the official event deck is to replace the die-rolls with a fair outcome distribution, to avoid players being hurt by bad luck. The current official rules for the dice deck is not very good at this: It suggest to use 31 die-rolls and the throw 5 away. IMHO the 31 roll cycle is too long to have any positive effect. If you are unlucky your numbers do not come up for the 5 first rounds, and the lucky player can get all his numbers in round 1 and 2. He can then invest in the same numbers as you, and thus eliminate the effect of your late lucky strike. The timing of the luck is as important as the number of outcomes of your number.

I suggest instead to sort the event deck in 3 X 10-card sub-decks, and use them in order 1, 2 and 3. The first deck contains all rolls where the first die is 3 or 4, the second deck where it is 2 or 5, and the last where it is 1 and 6. This makes a fair distribution with a 10 card cycle, your numbers are guaranteed to come up sooner or later, later meaning at most 10 rounds waiting in vain.
In the first two subdecks there are no '7'. This means The Robber is inactive in the start rounds.
The following description assumes ordinary dies to be used, but of course you use the event deck or some home-made replacements of 30 cards. The colors of the die in the describtion are not the same as on the dice event cards.

3X10 dice card variant:
During the first 10 2dr6 die-rolls, only results where the first die is 3 or 4 are accepted, except '7'. For the other die only one of each dr6 1..6 results are accepted.
41 , 42 , 44 , 45 = 5,6,8,9
31 , 32 , 33 , 35 , 36 = 4,5,6,8,9
46 = 10(A)
This leads to a nice ziggurat-looking distribution between 4 and 10(A) during the first 10 die-rolls:
56 89
456 89A

There will be one 4, two 5, two 6, two 8, two 9 and one 10.

During the next ten 2dr6 die-rolls, number 11..20, only results where the first die is 2 or 5 are accepted, except '7'. For the other die only one of each dr6 1..6 results are accepted.
51 , 53 = 6,8
21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 26 3,4,5,6,8
54 , 55 , 56 = 9,10(A),11(B)
This leads to a nice ziggurat-looking distribution between 3 and 11(B) during the next 10 die-rolls:
6 8
3456 89AB


Summing up, this leads to a nice volcano-like distribution between 3 and 11(B) during the first 5 rounds from start (20 die-rolls):
6 8
56 89
456 89A
3456 89AB


During the next ten 2dr6 die-rolls, number 21..30, only results where the first die is 1 or 6 are accepted. For the other die only one of each dr6 1..6 results are accepted. Now the '7' appears. The outliers '2' and '12' are skipped instead.
61 = 7
12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 = 3,4,5,6,7
62 , 63 , 64 , 65 = 8,9,10(A),11(B)
This leads to a flat distribution between 3 and 11(B) during the next 10 die-rolls, with an 7 on top:
7
3456789AB


Summing up, this leads to a nice pyramid-shaped distribution with a hole in the middle during the first 30 die-rolls:

6 8
56 89
456 89A
3456789AB
3456789AB


After the 30 cards, skip the card decks and commence with ordinary 2d6 dierolls.
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Jörg Baumgartner
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Re: Dice cards sorted in 3X12 subdecks to ensure a quicker fairness of the outcome
The numbers with 1 or 2 pips are suppressed until late in this cycle. Is that your intention?

With this method, it would be stupid to place initial settlements anywhere on a 2 or 12, and 3 and 11 are income poison for the first rounds, too. This means that there will be loser positions in inital setup. Rather than settle on a 3 or 11 you might as well take a harbor site with two land hexes with 3 or more pips adjacent.

Also robber placement would be critical in the initial phase. Only hexes with 4 or 5 pips matter, and can decide the game, especially since knight cards are unlikely in the first few turns.


Also, in combination with C&K this fucks up disrupts the distribution of progress cards, but then Catan: Seasons makes a better job at handling C&K with dice cards, anyway.
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Per Glöde
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Re: Dice cards sorted in 3X12 subdecks to ensure a quicker fairness of the outcome
Your observations are indeed correct, and the effects are intended. I would like to point out that there is a 50% chance to have at least one 2 or 12 during the first 12 dierolls, and 50% chance to have none. And there is a 50% chance to have a 12 during 24 dierolls, and 50% to have none. So the limitation of the outcome caused by my 3X12 card variant is not severely unnatural.
I think it is important to enforce a smoother distribution so that no player is lagging behind due to bad dierolls during the first 3-6 rounds, in spite of placing his investments in a sane way on 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10. A good start can decide the outcome of the game, since the rich get richer by design in this game.
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