Mac Mcleod
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R60,D40, + RVP.


R46,D54,+RVP.

----

He has a lot of interesting little tidbits like scandals that may be well know, commentary on special elections, where the candidates have withdrawn from the race and so on.

All in all, a nice primer and foundation.

And i'm sure the political experts here will have some corrections.
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Andre
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The battle to neuter Trump will not occur in the Senate, but rather the House. The Dems have a better chance of taking that house over, than the Senate. Instructive, but probably inconsequential to the battle. The House elections will most assuredly be a referendum on Trump. If the Dems take control, it will send a strong message to Trump and cronies, that their days are numbered. Frankly, if the House goes Dem, I suspect that Trump will be rendered a lame duck, like no other President prior to him. Simply because the atmosphere is so charged, and the Dems will do their best to make sure, that, at least legislatively, his agenda is dead on the vine.

Not to mention, impeachment or censure may be more likely, when the Dems take control. There will still likely be spineless Repubs that would stand against impeachment in the Senate, so that is probably unlikely to happen. But life will become even more difficult for Trump, if the House goes Dem.

 
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Pontifex Maximus
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An example of how panicked the GOP is can be found in the AZ-8. A deep red district that Trump carried by 21 points and the GOP candidate leads by 14. In spite of this the national party is dumping in $500K in donations and other support.

I anticipate good news ahead, but realize we must work to get it

 
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Daniel Kearns
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Bloomington
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I'm sorry but I just don't believe the Democrats are going to pull this off.
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Pontifex Maximus
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:

An example of how panicked the GOP is can be found in the AZ-8. A deep red district that Trump carried by 21 points and the GOP candidate leads by 14. In spite of this the national party is dumping in $500K in donations and other support.

I anticipate good news ahead, but realize we must work to get it



500K is tiny in politics.


Much larger than 0$ which is what they would have expended normally in this situation and in this district. And that leaves less to go around to other districts as well.

What is does indicate is that the GOP realizes that very few, if any districts, can be seem as safe for them. That is a rather telling admission on their part
 
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Pontifex Maximus
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dkearns wrote:
I'm sorry but I just don't believe the Democrats are going to pull this off.


Probably not, but when the National Party dumps in 500$K in a race like this in a district like this when the GOP candidate has a lead like this (14%) it shows they are in pure panic mode. Here's hoping they are correct in their assesment
 
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mortego
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The best strategy for the GOP is to raise the voting age to 25 for registered Democrats only.

Note - sorry for the dripping sarcasm for the posters below.
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Trey Chambers
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Right now I'm kind of predicting a 50/50 split or 49D/51R. The Dems actually getting to 51 is very, very hard.

I think they win in Nevada, but they have a real chance of losing Missouri (Montana, ND, and Indiana aren't walk-offs either). Those might be the only ones that flip, which would put us back at 49/51.
 
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Greg Michealson
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dkearns wrote:
I'm sorry but I just don't believe the Democrats are going to pull this off.


I'm with you on this one. Democrats have a long history of fucking up the best of situations. I'm sure they can fuck up again.
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Bat Profile
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mrspank wrote:
dkearns wrote:
I'm sorry but I just don't believe the Democrats are going to pull this off.


I'm with you on this one. Democrats have a long history of fucking up the best of situations. I'm sure they can fuck up again.


No one could possibly grasp defeat from the jaws of victory like Democrats save Liverpool FC.
 
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Pontifex Maximus
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KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:

An example of how panicked the GOP is can be found in the AZ-8. A deep red district that Trump carried by 21 points and the GOP candidate leads by 14. In spite of this the national party is dumping in $500K in donations and other support.

I anticipate good news ahead, but realize we must work to get it



500K is tiny in politics.


Much larger than 0$ which is what they would have expended normally in this situation and in this district. And that leaves less to go around to other districts as well.

What is does indicate is that the GOP realizes that very few, if any districts, can be seem as safe for them. That is a rather telling admission on their part


You are actually completely wrong on how much money you think 500K is in politics (regardless of the fact that they may not usually donate money to a campaign like this).

In 2012, for example, the average election campaign for a major candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives was $1,689,580. For the senate the average cost was $10,476,451.


They are talking about outside help from the National Party, not all contributions

Or as others put it

Quote:
This is a red seat, so they shouldn’t normally have to spend anything on this race, but Republicans are on defense,” said Mike Noble, a Republican pollster based in Arizona, adding that there has been a “heightened awareness and sense of urgency” after Conor Lamb’s victory in Pennsylvania “because you get in trouble when you’re asleep at the wheel.”


https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/27/arizona-special-el...

As said before $500K (which they have to spend now) is a lot more than $0 which they would usually spend for a seat like this.

Think I'll go with the analysis by the GOP Pollster actually.
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Mac Mcleod
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Kumitedad wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:
KrazyIrish89 wrote:
Kumitedad wrote:

An example of how panicked the GOP is can be found in the AZ-8. A deep red district that Trump carried by 21 points and the GOP candidate leads by 14. In spite of this the national party is dumping in $500K in donations and other support.

I anticipate good news ahead, but realize we must work to get it



500K is tiny in politics.


Much larger than 0$ which is what they would have expended normally in this situation and in this district. And that leaves less to go around to other districts as well.

What is does indicate is that the GOP realizes that very few, if any districts, can be seem as safe for them. That is a rather telling admission on their part


You are actually completely wrong on how much money you think 500K is in politics (regardless of the fact that they may not usually donate money to a campaign like this).

In 2012, for example, the average election campaign for a major candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives was $1,689,580. For the senate the average cost was $10,476,451.


They are talking about outside help from the National Party, not all contributions

Or as others put it

Quote:
This is a red seat, so they shouldn’t normally have to spend anything on this race, but Republicans are on defense,” said Mike Noble, a Republican pollster based in Arizona, adding that there has been a “heightened awareness and sense of urgency” after Conor Lamb’s victory in Pennsylvania “because you get in trouble when you’re asleep at the wheel.”


https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/27/arizona-special-el...

As said before $500K (which they have to spend now) is a lot more than $0 which they would usually spend for a seat like this.

Think I'll go with the analysis by the GOP Pollster actually.


Oh he's a GOP political wonk, what would he know about what constitutes normal spending in GOP elections? whistle
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Xander Fulton
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abadolato01 wrote:
Frankly, if the House goes Dem, I suspect that Trump will be rendered a lame duck, like no other President prior to him. Simply because the atmosphere is so charged, and the Dems will do their best to make sure, that, at least legislatively, his agenda is dead on the vine.


Of course, the extent of how much of a sore looser Trump is happens to be fairly well documented.

Wonder what a 2-year government shutdown would look like, given Trump will sign no budget into law if the Democrats don't completely roll over on every issue...
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