Race tightening a tad according to this.
The special election for an Arizona House seat is in a statistical dead heat in the final week of the race, according to a poll released on Monday.
A poll from Emerson College found physician Hiral Tipirneni (D) narrowly leading with 46 percent, compared to former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R), who is at 45 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error.
Monday’s poll is an outlier and a huge swing in the direction toward Democrats, with other recent polling showing Lesko winning by double-digit margins. The latest public poll on Friday from OH Predictive Insights and ABC 15 Arizona found Lesko leading by 10 points, 53 to 43 percent
Now this is an outlier poll, but may explain why the GOP has been pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into this race (one which would probably gotten 0 $ support in normal times)
Even with a 10 point lead in some polls the GOP realizes that they can't take anything for granted. Even in a district like this.
It’s Trump country; he carried the district by 20 points in 2016. And while Democrats recently saw success in a Trump +20 district, clinching the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th last month, it’s difficult to see how they could replicate that success in Arizona’s Eighth. It’s also a district that has “no Democratic heritage,” as Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report told Vox — like labor unions.
Republicans have strong roots in the region and make up 41 percent of registered voters — a clear advantage over Democrats, who only make up 24 percent of registered voters. It’s home to Maricopa County and Arpaio, who as sheriff was known for infringing on the constitutional rights of residents by assuming immigration status.
Despite Arizona’s fast-growing Latino population statewide, this district is nearly 90 percent white. Almost half the population is 55 or older. It includes the Sun City retirement community, a massive chunk of the district that consistently votes Republican.
Another way this election spells trouble for Democrats is that about three-quarters of the voters will submit their ballots by mail. The county the district is in has a permanent early voting list, which many in Sun City residents are on. In other words, there isn’t as much potential for a drop-off of Republican voters.
There may be internal polls showing a tighter race. Which would be a massive danger alone. If the race proves to be within 5 points, there may be a lot more in the GOP congressional delegations that will suddenly discover health problems/family issues/desires to reenter the private sector.