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Too long, didn't watch? Trump is dead set on blowing up the Iran deal, and is surrounding himself with yes-men who agree, but he has zero plan on how to replace it and seemingly plans to solve the issue with war against Iran.

I've long worried that the only way Trump wins in 2020 is to embroil us in a war, and the American voters will be too skittish to want to change horses in the middle of such an international crisis. He may even be planning to jump the gun and get things going before the November midterms in order to keep Republican majorities in both houses.

Ugh.
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I've told my brother 5 fucking times (including on Sunday) we didn't give Iran 'our money' and saying Hilary 'would have been worse' isn't a goddamn excuse for voting for Twitler. Oh, he also thinks Orange Jesus isn't in any serious trouble and that he stopped 10's of thousands of Syrians from entering the country.

For fucks sake I'm not even sure why I bother.
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Here's a little indication on how well and truly fucked we may be. (Story from March)

Quote:
Just eight months ago, at a Paris gathering, Bolton told members of the Iranian exile group, known as the Mujahedeen Khalq, MEK, or People’s Mujahedeen, that the Trump administration should embrace their goal of immediate regime change in Iran and recognize their group as a “viable” alternative.

“The outcome of the president’s policy review should be to determine that the Ayatollah Khomeini’s 1979 revolution will not last until its 40th birthday,” Bolton said. (The 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution will be on February 11, 2019.) “The declared policy of the United States should be the overthrow of the mullahs’ regime in Tehran,” Bolton added. “The behavior and the objectives of the regime are not going to change and, therefore, the only solution is to change the regime itself.”

As the Iranian expatriate journalist Bahman Kalbasi noted, Bolton concluded his address to the exiles with a rousing promise: “And that’s why, before 2019, we here will celebrate in Tehran!”




https://theintercept.com/2018/03/23/heres-john-bolton-promis...

So if Trump withdraws from the agreement, what do one expect the Iranians to do? Trump has managed undercut the moderates in the regime and has lived up with their worst fears of the US's intentions. As in his hand picked security advisor is publicly advocated the overthrow of the present government there.

F'ing brilliant. Specially thanks to all of those too stupid to figure out the existential threat Trump posed to not only our democracy, but our lives as well. But hey, much more important to keep Hillary out of the Oval Office because...emails.



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Wendell
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Also, backing out of a deal to stop a country from becoming nuclear is TOTALLY the way to show a country that has already become nuclear that you can TOTALLY trust the word of the United States.
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Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?
 
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TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


The dude who made those decisions didn't even know there was a Sunni/Shia divide in the Muslim world. You think we had deep plans??

The US did the best possible favor for Iran any country has ever done for another by getting rid of Saddam. As dumb as that administration was, I don't see it thinking the war in Iraq was a good first step to invading Iran.
 
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double ninja
 
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EMBison wrote:
The dude who made those decisions didn't even know there was a Sunni/Shia divide in the Muslim world. You think we had deep plans??

The US did the best possible favor for Iran any country has ever done for another by getting rid of Saddam. As dumb as that administration was, I don't see it thinking the war in Iran was a good first step to invading Iran.
You have to think like conspiracy theorist, the Project For A New American Century allegedly made Bush dance and how hard is it to get Trump to dance even when you aren't even in his circle? I'm not saying it's true or anything, but I would be interested to hear the theories.
 
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I wonder if Trump can get Putin to come down through Turkmenistan and they can split up the country ala Poland in 39. Much more friendly for each other than squabbling over Syria
 
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TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


Well that's one god-damned slow developing conspiracy.
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Honestly, at this point, it (WWIII) seems the only way to be sure.

I'm ready for whatever.
 
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wifwendell wrote:
TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


Well that's one god-damned slow developing conspiracy.
The best ones would be.
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TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


That would definitely fall only in the conspiracy theory realm.

I think Afghanistan has only 9-11 as a rationale, but conspiracist thoughts on Iraq lean towards controlling oil fields and countering Iran.

What I don't get is that commentators are not drawing direct comparisons on the path Obama (or any prior administration) took with Iran to the road Trump is heading down with N. Korea. He distrusts everything about the inspection reports and their conclusions yet is creating (potentially) the same construct in Asia. That is less of a concern because the far right is anticipating the Middke East War.

I'm not scared, just disgusted.
 
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TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?

This quote was an actual thing during the run-up to the Iraq War: “Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Tehran.”

Yeah, guys like John Bolton absolutely wanted to invade Iran after the Iraq War. For them, Baghdad was just a preparatory war.
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wifwendell wrote:
TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


Well that's one god-damned slow developing conspiracy.

The god-damed interminable Iraq War derailed a very real project. (A very real project for some, but not everybody was keen on it.)

http://www.jstor.org/stable/4122038
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bowen wrote:
TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?

This quote was an actual thing during the run-up to the Iraq War: “Everyone wants to go to Baghdad. Real men want to go to Tehran.”

Yeah, guys like John Bolton absolutely wanted to invade Iran after the Iraq War. For them, Baghdad was just a preparatory war.


I'm still amazed we got to the end of W's presidency without attacking Iran. Cheney was raring to go.
 
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TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


One of the stated reasons for invading Iraq was to establish bases to help maintain peace in the mideast. (Kind of like Europe post-WWII.) It's not a stretch to say this was to contain Iran, if not invade.
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qzhdad wrote:
TheChin! wrote:
Are there any conspiracy theories out there that say the whole reason we invaded Afghanistan and Iraq was to prepare for eventual war in Iran?


One of the stated reasons for invading Iraq was to establish bases to help maintain peace in the mideast. (Kind of like Europe post-WWII.) It's not a stretch to say this was to contain Iran, if not invade.


There was a nice two part Frontline recently about the standing power-balance conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

They basically said that attacking Iraq and Afghanistan was a huge boon to Iran and dramatically strengthened Iran's position relative to Saudi Arabia.
 
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wifwendell wrote:

I'm still amazed we got to the end of W's presidency without attacking Iran. Cheney was raring to go.

This, plus McCain’s campaign rhetoric on Iran, are what (IMHO) won Obama the Peace Prize. I’ve certainly never heard a better justification.
 
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dkearns wrote:
There was a nice two part Frontline recently about the standing power-balance conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

They basically said that attacking Iraq and Afghanistan was a huge boon to Iran and dramatically strengthened Iran's position relative to Saudi Arabia.


While Middle East geopolitics is a very layered and complicated affair (no shit, Vic), you can get a reasonable first-order picture of who supports whom and where does everyone stand by drawing a map around four proxy, low intensity conflicts for hegemony that pitch regional powers, plus how other agents relate to these conflicts:

- Between Saudi Arabia and Iran
- Between Israel and Iran
- Between Saudi Arabia and Qatar
- Between the US and Russia

Iran definitely has strengthened its position as a result of the collapse of the American rearguard in Iraq and the failed toppling of Assad - to the point that they are close to securing a land route to the Mediterranean and their popularity has increased in large parts of the region. In a way, this strengthening of the Irani position has exacerbated the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Qatar (last year's diplomatic offensive was clearly an attempt to reassert Saudi Arabia's hegemony in the conservative Sunni political space in the region) and is also behind the surge of Western weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, as the Saudis are getting more and more mired in the Yemeni civil war, which has the potential to become Saudi Arabia's own Vietnam, against the Iran-backed Houthis.
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The bad part of the Iran deal is that Iran and most of the rest of the Middle East actors took the deal as the US allying with Iran and giving them a green light for naked aggression so long as they stick to conventional warfare, at least in the near term. The solution is not to dump the deal but to divest Iran of this notion in such a manner that they and others in the region perceive that the US is serious.
 
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whac3 wrote:
The bad part of the Iran deal is that Iran and most of the rest of the Middle East actors took the deal as the US allying with Iran and giving them a green light for naked aggression so long as they stick to conventional warfare, at least in the near term. The solution is not to dump the deal but to divest Iran of this notion in such a manner that they and others in the region perceive that the US is serious.


Oh yeah right Iran thinks they were allied with the US again.
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Wendell;

Try listening to to some actual damned political speeches from the Middle East.
 
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whac3 wrote:
Wendell;

Try listening to to some actual damned political speeches from the Middle East.


You are telling me Iran feels like it is allied to the United States? Really? That's laughable.
 
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Wedell;

For goodness's sake, don't be willfully obtuse. No, Iran does not think it's literally a US ally. They just may as well be because the US and Europe have made it abundantly clear no one from the US or Europe will interfere in Iran's regional aggressions so long as they stick to conventional weapons.
 
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