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Pandemic Legacy: Season 2» Forums » General

Subject: Infection Deck tracking app rss

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Jason Anderson
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I'm playing Pandemic Legacy Season 2 with some co-workers and have found that keeping track of what's in the infection deck to be vital to having a chance of winning (or at least losing with fewer negative results). I made an iPhone app to help us with this.

https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/pl2-deck-manager/id138750894...

It's not perfect, but it's been very useful. Feedback is welcome, I'll see what I can do about suggested improvements.
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John Bruns
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I like the App. I would like to be able to enter the number of cards to be drawn. Ie. 9,2,2 etc. and have the probability of a given location occurring once, twice and three times. This is different from chance of the next card being drawn, but I think it would be more useful.

The reason I think this is that almost all decisions are made before deciding to make the total draw for the turn. The percentage you currently display is also useful. The number drawn could start at 9 for a new game and then switch to 2. It would count down for each turn. You could change automatically each epidemic. I don’t know if being able to override it is needed, but could be useful.

I was attempting to do this with pencil and paper, but the app is much better.
 
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Jason Anderson
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Hmm, I like the basic suggestion: "what is the probability of pulling more than one on the next epidemic". Like you said, I could track the number of epidemics that have happened to know what the infection counter is. I'll think of how I could display this...getting anything to be intuitive is difficult.

As I side note, in working on an undo button. In my own game I've pulled infection cards only to figure out that it was a mistake for one reason or another, it'd be nice to just undo.
 
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John Bruns
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Jason102 wrote:
Hmm, I like the basic suggestion: "what is the probability of pulling more than one on the next epidemic". Like you said, I could track the number of epidemics that have happened to know what the infection counter is. I'll think of how I could display this...getting anything to be intuitive is difficult.

As I side note, in working on an undo button. In my own game I've pulled infection cards only to figure out that it was a mistake for one reason or another, it'd be nice to just undo.


Actually the probability of putting a single card Of a particular city in the next draw is not currently represented. Consider the top 4 cards are known and you are currently drawing 3 in a turn. Let’s say that 2 of them are Washington. The probability reads 50%, but that is for the first draw. The actual odds of drawing at least one Washington card is 100%.

Calculating the odds in a single known stack is relatively easy, but when you start adding stacked layers, such as the game sets up, it becomes quite complicated. In fact, it was the topic of a 500 level math course I took years ago. If you are aware of this and up to it, I think it will greatly improve the product. If you don’t have the math background and would like help with the formulas, I would be willing to crack open my old textbook and see if I can find them for you. If you are interested just PM me.

PS. I like the undo idea.
 
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Jason Anderson
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The value currently shown is the probability that the next single card will be the given city. At the time, I decided that this was easiest because if the potential modifiers to the game itself (ex. Silent Night, or some infection card upgrades). Showing both values (next card & next infection pull) would probably be helpful.

I'll take a stab at the math and see if I can get something working.
 
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John Bruns
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Great! I did understand what you were currently displaying and realize without more state information, that is as good as you can do. By the way, I am not at all critical, as the app as current, keeps track of a lot of information and makes it nicely available. I was only making a suggestion that I think would improve things.

I also want to say that I was very pleased with the way you preserved spoiler information in the app. Let me mention to anyone worried about the app spoiling information about future cities on the board, that this is covered in a very clever fashion while still enabling you to update the app's state to cover what you have discovered in the game.

As for displays of multiple occurrences, I would do something like (made up percentages):

1(40%) 2(15%) 3(2%)

and I would only show 2 and 3 results if non zero.

I am playing a game with some friends and we are starting May next. We won’t be meeting for a couple of weeks.

 
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John Bruns
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I looked up my old probability text and the function you need is called the Hypergeometric Distribution Function.
 
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Jason Anderson
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I'll look it up. I've added a tracker for the current infection rate, based on the number of epidemic's that have happened (it is modifiable). I'll use that info to try and get statistics.
 
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Jonathan Elbers
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Thanks for the app. This is great help.

Last night I used it in a game and it worked fine, but we encountered one problem:

Spoiler (click to reveal)
We made a supply line from Denver to Mexico city (a straight line is possible), but selecting Mexico City is not possible in the app before drawing a line toward Los Angeles, so I can not add Mexico City to the Grid.
 
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Jason Anderson
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I've had a few meta data issues that we saw in our own game. I'll fix that one as well.
 
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John Bruns
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Spoiler (click to reveal)
It is probably best to allow any known city to be connected. It should also be easier to implement.


When you implement the odds, the hypergeometric distribution formula is for a specific number of occurrences. I think the number most people want is the cumulative odds for a given occurrence. That is the odds of at least one being drawn rather than the odds of exactly one being drawn. Luckily, once you have the odds of 1, 2, or 3 exactly being drawn, it becomes simple addition.

Looking forward to the update.
 
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Jason Anderson
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Just released an update. It doesn't show the probability of 2 or 3 cards yet, but properly shows the probability of a single card based on the infection rate. Also: a few other things thrown in.

Worth noting: my group is only starting September tomorrow, so anything that happens after that point isn't accounted for.
 
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John Bruns
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Jason102 wrote:
Just released an update. It doesn't show the probability of 2 or 3 cards yet, but properly shows the probability of a single card based on the infection rate. Also: a few other things thrown in.

Worth noting: my group is only starting September tomorrow, so anything that happens after that point isn't accounted for.


The update looks good. I like the undo.

Some additional suggestions:

1) When starting a new session, you know what the composition of the deck is and you know you will be drawing 9 cards. If you set a "infection rate" of 9 for this initial draw, it would assist you in where to supply the grid. After you draw the first 9, you could then set it to 2.

2) When an epidemic strikes, you know the odds for each city being hit. Could you display that in the epidemic window?

3) I am still hoping for the odds of a city being drawn more than once.

4) Allow any known city to be connected to the grid. This will eliminate meta-data connectivity issues. IF someone thinks they can connect lines, let them.

Thanks again
 
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Jenn B
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Based on the recon of North America (early game spoiler):

Spoiler (click to reveal)
I can't add Chicago via supply line in the app.
 
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Jason Anderson
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SocksRule wrote:
Based on the recon of North America (early game spoiler):

Spoiler (click to reveal)
I can't add Chicago via supply line in the app.


Spoiler (click to reveal)
Chicago is automatically added once Washington is recon'd. You won't see it in the infection deck until you start a new session, though.
 
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John Bruns
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Played yesterday using the app for the first time. It really was helpful.

Found one case where the percentages were off.

Due to the way epidemics happened, the infection deck had City A on top, and 2 copies of City B below it, followed by the remainder of the deck. We were still in the draw 2 cards phase and the odds showed City A correctly at 100%, but showed city B at 50%.

I suspect that there is an issue in correctly calculating the odds whenever the deck is between epidemic splits.

 
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Jason Anderson
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There was an issue with percentages, to the point it would say that there was > 100% chance of picking a city under certain circumstances. I released an update just yesterday that should hopefully fix this.
 
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Chris Hatfield
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First, you are an absolute saint. Love the app. Did have a question, most likely because I'm an idiot, but:

Spoiler (click to reveal)
are there different ways to remove cards? One way to remove an infection card in situations like Resilient Population, where the card goes back into the infection deck the next game, and another way to effectively destroy a card, where it does not go back into the deck the next game? I'm certain this feature exists, but I just haven't found the option.


Thanks man!
 
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