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Subject: Quantum No-Reveal 9er Experimental Game rss

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The Cassandra Automatic Vote Tally System

Your Moderator has enabled the Cassandra Automatic Vote Tally system
for this game. In order for it to function correctly, your votes will
need to be formatted correctly. The following rules will explain what
you will need to do:

Players
1. All votes must be bolded

2. The entire vote statement must be bolded and enclosed in brackets:
[vote jmilum]

3. If your game allows, and you [vote nightfall] your vote will
be locked. Your moderator may have disabled nightfall votes.

4. Vote tallies will be automatically posted to the game thread
regularly if the tally has changed. The Tally and Vote Logs (for each
game day) are also available on the Cassandra game page.

5. If your vote is not counted be sure to check the Vote Log page and
see if it was marked invalid and why.

6. Case does not matter and simple typos will not cause the vote to fail.

7. You may [vote no lynch] if your game allows it.

8. Non voting players will be listed in the tallies. This will only be
correct if the Moderator notes which players have been killed (see below)

9. Editing a vote post will invalidate the vote and it will not be counted.


Moderators
1. The moderator will need to post [Dawn] when the day begins
(after the night results are posted) and [Dusk] when the lynch
deadline has passed and the day is over. Votes will not be counted
after [Dusk] has been posted. They will be registered again
after [Dawn] is next posted.

2. You may include a day number in the dawn and dusk post for
informational purposes, but it will not be used by the system.
Cassandra will increment an internal counter each time it sees
[Dawn] no matter what day is shown in a dawn post (i.e.
[Dawn 3] the three is allowed but ignored)

3. After dusk has been posted, the Moderator may go to the game page
on Cassandra to request a Final Tally to be posted before the normal
scan period has elapsed (i.e. Game Y gets scanned at 45 min. after the
hour, if it lynches at 7pm the moderator may request a tally to be
posted from the game page before 7:45pm. it will also be posted
regardless of whether or not it has been changed since the last
posting) - Do this by clicking on the 'Force Vote Tally' link.

4. You will need to note which players were killed via the lynch or at night by
either posting [killed jmilum] in the thread, or by going to the game
page and editing the player list. When posting in the thread, be sure to post
[dusk] before posting the lynch kill, and post [dawn] before
posting the night kill.
Example:
A. lynch time has passed so post [dusk]
B. goto the game page and select a final tally to be posted
C. check the final tally and post [killed melsana]
D. after the night deadline has passed post [dawn]
E. post the night kill with [killed kima]

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.
Your Moderator has chosen to allow Nightfall votes.
Your Moderator has chosen to allow No Lynch votes.

Vote Log Page: http://cassandrawerewolf.com/game/2031921/votes
Vote Tally Page: http://cassandrawerewolf.com/game/2031921/tally
 
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Christopher
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Welcome to the experiment! I'm sorry I was unable to determine any of your roles with certainty, but I'm sure things will get sorted out soon enough! Feel free to make use of any of your potential abilities until I determine you don't have one. One thing is for certain though, there are two wolves among you, and you have to try to root them out, or the experiment will become a complete disaster!

You should each have a N0 Seer view, a N0 Sorcerer view, and your probabilities of being each of the 6 roles. You should also each have orders to:
- View for Wolf if Seer
- View Role if Priest
- NK if Wolf
- View for Seer if Sorcerer
Please let me know if anything appears to be missing.

We started with 30240 possibilities. Today we are down to 19860.

[dawn]

First lynch is tomorrow. You may post.
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Day (she/her)
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I may or may not be a Wolf, but I'm definitely wolfing
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Yeah!

[vote lj]
 
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David Chapman
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[vote Whirling]
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (9/9) - # - Voted by

ljtrigirl - 1 - Smugs(1)
whirlingdervish - 1 - Jedit(2)

Not Voting: Kortemaki, ljtrigirl, Mimikyu, Royalflush, TWM03, whirlingdervish, zenofkermit


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 4:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 4:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Jedit - 1 - whirlingdervish(2)
Smugs - 1 - ljtrigirl(1)

Not Voting: Kortemaki, ljtrigirl, Mimikyu, Royalflush, TWM03, whirlingdervish, zenofkermit
 
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Jeremy Likens
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So... how does D1 strategy work in a game like this?
 
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Day (she/her)
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I feel like generally, we should all be hedging and playing for Village, in the general likelihood that, today at least, we are more likely to be Good than Evil.

I also think claiming Seer N0s is fine?

I don't think we're likely to know, or even suspect, our roles before the game is over, unless we go to an F3.

Finally, no kill today? It gives us more possible views and things to work with.
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Jeremy Likens
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I suppose [vote TWM03] seems like a decent place to start until I figure out a better strategy.
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (9/9) - # - Voted by

ljtrigirl - 1 - Smugs(1)
whirlingdervish - 1 - Jedit(2)
TWM03 - 1 - Royalflush(3)

Not Voting: Kortemaki, ljtrigirl, Mimikyu, TWM03, whirlingdervish, zenofkermit


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 4:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 4:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Jedit - 1 - whirlingdervish(2)
Royalflush - 1 - TWM03(3)
Smugs - 1 - ljtrigirl(1)

Not Voting: Kortemaki, ljtrigirl, Mimikyu, TWM03, whirlingdervish, zenofkermit
 
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David Chapman
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Smugs wrote:
I feel like generally, we should all be hedging and playing for Village, in the general likelihood that, today at least, we are more likely to be Good than Evil.

I also think claiming Seer N0s is fine?

I don't think we're likely to know, or even suspect, our roles before the game is over, unless we go to an F3.

Finally, no kill today? It gives us more possible views and things to work with.

No, we lynch today. We can't lose by it, and a lynch narrows the worlds faster than a set of actions.
 
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Jeremy Likens
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Smugs wrote:
I feel like generally, we should all be hedging and playing for Village, in the general likelihood that, today at least, we are more likely to be Good than Evil.
Agreed.

Quote:
I also think claiming Seer N0s is fine?
Is it though?

What if three of us clear Player X. I think we just condemned Player X to be nk'ed by wolves. No?

Quote:
I don't think we're likely to know, or even suspect, our roles before the game is over, unless we go to an F3.
I think there might be some strategy that would help us enable ourselves to be one role or another later on.

Quote:
Finally, no kill today? It gives us more possible views and things to work with.
True.

Although, as long as the lynch is someone other than me, I'm okay with it. Then we just have to ensure that the player we lynch is likely to be a wolf.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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I don't really know what to do, but Royalflush was both of my N0s, so I really don't want him to die either way, I think?


I'm probably going to nightfall the last person to post.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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[vote TWM] Hi!

I lied, I'm NFing the last person to vote. On D1, that's as good a reason as any.
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (9/9) - # - Voted by

TWM03 - 2 - Royalflush(3), ljtrigirl(4)
ljtrigirl - 1 - Smugs(1)
whirlingdervish - 1 - Jedit(2)

Not Voting: Kortemaki, Mimikyu, TWM03, whirlingdervish, zenofkermit


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 4:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 4:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Jedit - 1 - whirlingdervish(2)
ljtrigirl - 1 - TWM03(4)
Royalflush - 1 - TWM03(3)
Smugs - 1 - ljtrigirl(1)

Not Voting: Kortemaki, Mimikyu, TWM03, whirlingdervish, zenofkermit
 
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David Chapman
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Also people should be looking at their percentages. We have nine players, so everyone would be 22% wolf, 33% villager and 11% everything else if the worlds were evenly distributed. If your numbers are above or below that, then views have eliminated worlds.

Simple example: initially there are 72 worlds concerning any two players, which look like this

W1/W2 W1/Se W1/So W1/V1 W1/V2 W1/V3 W1/Pr W1/Hu
W2/W1 W2/Se W2/So W2/V1 W2/V2 W2/V3 W2/Pr W2/Hu
Se/W1 Se/W2 Se/So Se/V1 Se/V2 Se/V3 Se/Pr Se/Hu
So/W1 So/W2 So/Se So/V1 So/V2 So/V3 So/Pr So/Hu
V1/W1 V1/W2 V1/Se V1/So V1/V2 V1/V3 V1/Pr V1/Hu
V2/W1 V2/W2 V2/Se V2/So V2/V1 V2/V3 V2/Pr V2/Hu
V3/W1 V3/W2 V3/Se V3/So V3/V1 V3/V2 V3/Pr V3/Hu
Pr/W1 Pr/W2 Pr/Se Pr/So Pr/V1 Pr/V2 Pr/V3 Pr/Hu
Hu/W1 Hu/W2 Hu/Se Hu/So Hu/V1 Hu/V2 Hu/V3 Hu/Pr

Both player 1 and 2 have 8/72 worlds where they are Seer and 16/72 worlds where they are Wolf.

If player 1 would view player 2 as Wolf if 1 was the Seer, then the six worlds in which 1 is Seer and 2 is not Wolf go away. Now 1 has only a 2/66 chance of being Seer, but 2 has a 16/66 chance of being Wolf.

 
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I've considered attempting to all target the same person with either a sorcerer or seer view. We need a player to be an "anchor" and have an increased chance of being a certain role so that we can narrow possibilities faster.
I don't know if we can trust each other to do the same thing though. I'd like to think we can.

I'm viewing this game as more of a puzzle in the early stages.
 
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I'm super uncomfortable actually lynching somebody day one if we all have the same odds.
 
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David Chapman
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ljtrigirl wrote:
I don't really know what to do, but Royalflush was both of my N0s, so I really don't want him to die either way, I think?


I'm probably going to nightfall the last person to post.

Would you mind telling us what the results are?
 
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David Chapman
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Mimikyu wrote:
I'm super uncomfortable actually lynching somebody day one if we all have the same odds.

We don't. Anyone who has been viewed as Wolf or Seer has a higher chance of being that role.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Jedit wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
I don't really know what to do, but Royalflush was both of my N0s, so I really don't want him to die either way, I think?


I'm probably going to nightfall the last person to post.

Would you mind telling us what the results are?

I mean, they're guaranteed negatives. What else would they be?
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Jedit wrote:
Mimikyu wrote:
I'm super uncomfortable actually lynching somebody day one if we all have the same odds.

We don't. Anyone who has been viewed as Wolf or Seer has a higher chance of being that role.

Aren't night zero actions supposed to be clears?
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OHHHHH
I get it now. We don't have the same odds. Whoever is cleared more often has a lower chance of being a wolf.
Likewise some should have a lower chance of being seer if they pop up more in n0's
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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I regret claiming my clears now.

I think we should probably arbitrarily lynch D1 and then start game solving on D2.
 
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Jeremy Likens
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ljtrigirl wrote:
I regret claiming my clears now.

I think we should probably arbitrarily lynch D1 and then start game solving on D2.
I don't regret it.

I think I'm probably the lowest on the list to lynch or nk now.

If you want to be good, I'm less likely to be a wolf. If you want to be evil, I'm less likely to be the seer.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Royalflush wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
I regret claiming my clears now.

I think we should probably arbitrarily lynch D1 and then start game solving on D2.
I don't regret it.

I think I'm probably the lowest on the list to lynch or nk now.

If you want to be good, I'm less likely to be a wolf. If you want to be evil, I'm less likely to be the seer.

I just feel like three of us are going to randomly turn out to be evil, and if we all play for good and math things out, they just randomly lose.
 
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