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Subject: Quantum No-Reveal 9er Experimental Game rss

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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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cvb2009 wrote:
[killed ljtrigirl]

There are 115 worlds remaining.

In 79, there are no living wolves.
In 16.5, the hunter defies parity.
In 19.5, the wolves win via parity.

So, 1-158 - No wolves
159 - 191 - Hunter win
192 - 230 - Wolves win


cvb2009 previously rolled 1d230 = (196) = 196


Yeah, so I had a 13% chance of winning after getting lynched the final day WHILE have like absolutely no idea about how I should be playing the game given that I was a coin flip for either good or evil.

I think lynching Mimi would have given me the greatest chance of winning?
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Smugs wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
But for the record- I lied about almost everything all game because why the heck would you ever be honest?

Because that's more comfortable for me than lying? But also I was never in any danger of being Evil greater than 1/5.

Right, but that's only because things went down the way they did. A few things change, and you're likely to be evil having told the truth all game and backed into a corner.

Everyone started out with super low chances of being everything.
 
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Jason
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Please don't take this the wrong way cvb, but this game kind of feels like Monopoly werewolf. Even at the end, good had over 80% chance of winning and still lost. I hate dice and they hate me!
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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I think people should be making decisions towards trying to lock in a higher % of something early on.

I really think we should have lynched Korte that one day because it would have dramatically reduced the number of possible worlds and this last day wouldn't feel like a crapshoot.

I made a ton of moves specifically to narrow down my role as quickly as possible, but I still had a ton of worlds.
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Jason
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zenofkermit wrote:
Please don't take this the wrong way cvb, but this game kind of feels like Monopoly werewolf. Even at the end, good had over 80% chance of winning and still lost. I hate dice and they hate me!
But thanks for running it and it's been an interesting experiment!

I'd like to see the daily stats on everyone if you don't mind posting them.
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Day (she/her)
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ljtrigirl wrote:
Smugs wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
But for the record- I lied about almost everything all game because why the heck would you ever be honest?

Because that's more comfortable for me than lying? But also I was never in any danger of being Evil greater than 1/5.

Right, but that's only because things went down the way they did. A few things change, and you're likely to be evil having told the truth all game and backed into a corner.

Everyone started out with super low chances of being everything.

Yep, and that would have been the risk of that game. But it would have been fun for other people, I hope, so I don't mind. But I'm sure I would have played slightly differently if my percentages had varied.
 
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Jeremy Likens
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cvb2009 wrote:
[killed ljtrigirl]

There are 115 worlds remaining.

In 79, there are no living wolves.
In 16.5, the hunter defies parity.
In 19.5, the wolves win via parity.

So, 1-158 - No wolves
159 - 191 - Hunter win
192 - 230 - Wolves win


cvb2009 previously rolled 1d230 = (196) = 196

Definitely a crapshoot...

Grats!
 
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Jeremy Likens
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ljtrigirl wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Shit, I thought I'd switched to voting Flush. Sorry LJ. I might have won here, but my intention was to be voting Flush

It's fine. I'm pretty sure he was lying about as much as I was.

Like, today was just awful from a player POV, especially when I legit was 50/50 of being a wolf vs not. I had to both get a "mislynch" but have it be the right "mislynch".

I think today would have been much more straightforward and felt much less shitty if I was just trying to find the most evil person.
I was actually telling the truth 100% on the final day.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Cool experiment. I'd enjoy it maybe with a few caveats:

1) I think the lynch tallies should factor in, ie on D2, it should no longer have been possible for the 4 of us voting Jedit to have been the N1 NK.

2) I think everyone should start out with a role that they CAN'T have been. Like you roll a standard 9er, and then strike that from the options. Even for the three people that would roll villager, that'd be a ton of extra info.

3) The first and last lynches should both autowin unless they're relatively locked into an alignment to make being that less shitty.

I'd love to reach the end of the game with like 3-5 possible worlds instead of 250+. 3-5 makes for some really interesting endgame decisions.
 
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Jeremy Likens
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I did leave out the fact that LJ was also the Seer in the worlds where I was Sorcerer. Didn't figure that would help me...
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Royalflush wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Shit, I thought I'd switched to voting Flush. Sorry LJ. I might have won here, but my intention was to be voting Flush

It's fine. I'm pretty sure he was lying about as much as I was.

Like, today was just awful from a player POV, especially when I legit was 50/50 of being a wolf vs not. I had to both get a "mislynch" but have it be the right "mislynch".

I think today would have been much more straightforward and felt much less shitty if I was just trying to find the most evil person.
I was actually telling the truth 100% on the final day.

I genuinely don't understand how that's possible.
 
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Christopher
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So, who was evil?

100% - whirlingdervish (100% Wolf)
87% - Mimikyu (87% Wolf / 13% Seer)

48% - Jedit (48% Sorc / 30% Villager / 22% Priest)
35% - Smugs (35% Villager / 22% Hunter / 22% Sorc / 13% Wolf / 9% Priest)
30% - Royalflush (52% Villager / 30% Sorc / 17% Priest)

0% - TWM (52% Priest / 48% Villager)
0% - Korte (57% Villager / 35% Hunter / 9% Seer)
0% - LJ (78% Seer / 22% Villager)
0% - Kermit (57% Villager / 43% Hunter)
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Royalflush wrote:
I did leave out the fact that LJ was also the Seer in the worlds where I was Sorcerer. Didn't figure that would help me...

I actually assumed that was the case but thought arguing it would lose me the game.

I wanted to lynch Mimi because I think it would have been the best outcome for me all around.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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I TOLD YOU GUYS WE SHOULD HAVE LYNCHED MIMI!!!
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cvb2009 wrote:
So, who was evil?

100% - whirlingdervish (100% Wolf)
87% - Mimikyu (87% Wolf / 13% Seer)

48% - Jedit (48% Sorc / 30% Villager / 22% Priest)
35% - Smugs (35% Villager / 22% Hunter / 22% Sorc / 13% Wolf / 9% Priest)
30% - Royalflush (52% Villager / 30% Sorc / 17% Priest)

0% - TWM (52% Priest / 48% Villager)
0% - Korte (57% Villager / 35% Hunter / 9% Seer)
0% - LJ (78% Seer / 22% Villager)
0% - Kermit (57% Villager / 43% Hunter)

Mimikyu wrote:
Ok here goes nothing:

I hardclaim seer in 5% of the worlds.
I hardclaim priest in 1%.

I hardclaim both and then wolf in .5%.

I can't believe you guys. I hardclaimed seer then priest then admitted I was a wolf and you still didn't lynch me. Evil won this game fair and square. whistle
 
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Christopher
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This has the stats up to N3:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1t1yGslb0lXR0OZ3LAn6p2p7p...

I'll check back later with more thoughts, but I agree if I were to run it again, I'd like to see things more narrowed down by the time we get to the end. Sorry if it soured the experience for anyone.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Stuff I lied about:

I got double clears on Kermit N1 and NKed Korte.
I got double hits on N2, Seer on Mimi and Sorc on Whirling.
And then my %s several times.
 
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cvb2009 wrote:
So, who was evil?

100% - whirlingdervish (100% Wolf)
87% - Mimikyu (87% Wolf / 13% Seer)

48% - Jedit (48% Sorc / 30% Villager / 22% Priest)
35% - Smugs (35% Villager / 22% Hunter / 22% Sorc / 13% Wolf / 9% Priest)
30% - Royalflush (52% Villager / 30% Sorc / 17% Priest)

0% - TWM (52% Priest / 48% Villager)
0% - Korte (57% Villager / 35% Hunter / 9% Seer)
0% - LJ (78% Seer / 22% Villager)
0% - Kermit (57% Villager / 43% Hunter)

Ooh, so we're still not narrowed down to one world? Thought I might magically turn out to be a wolf... I was still on 8% last time I looked. Does one world not get selected for the winners to be determined?
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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cvb2009 wrote:
This has the stats up to N3:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1t1yGslb0lXR0OZ3LAn6p2p7p...

I'll check back later with more thoughts, but I agree if I were to run it again, I'd like to see things more narrowed down by the time we get to the end. Sorry if it soured the experience for anyone.

I think the endgame needs to be reworked somehow. I'm not sure how. Being the person that's lynched last in this game is fundamentally different from being lynched last in a full on werewolf game because it's due to a lot of random odds, and not that person's actual ability to play their role.
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Jeremy Likens
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Now that the games over, here's how to break it (wish I'd thought of this before we started, lol).

D1 - Vote No Lynch. All players agree to nk Player X.
N1 - All players nk Player X. Player X nk's Bob.
D2 - Player X is lynched. Player X becomes a guaranteed wolf as they were the only player with a valid nk. Wolf #1 lynched. Bob becomes 100% dead.

Also on D2, the players all agree to nk Player Y.
N2 - All player nk Player Y. Player Y nk's Sue.
D3 - Player Y is lynched. Player Y becomes guaranteed wolf as they were the only player with a valid nk. Wolf #2 is lynched. Game Over. Good wins.


Ultimately players should go along with this as it to their best advantage to do this. And ultimately, there's really no rhyme or reason as to why Player X and Y (and whoever gets unlucky enough to be the Sorcerer) lose. They just got chosen by the group.
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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I think maybe eliminating down starting worlds a lot more?

I think if you rolled a full 9er twice and removed those options, it might work?

Like, if I rolled Villager 2 and Sorcerer, you'd remove all possibilities where I was either of those roles from the beginning.

And if all N0s were Villagers, between the two of those changes, I think the endgame would be much more narrowed down and cleaner.

Plus the tally changes that I mentioned earlier.
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Jason
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I think the game does need some kind of simulated annealing in order for it to be more playable. By the F5 I think everyone should at least know what alignment they are, if not exact role. And the ending did seem kind of anti-climatic so maybe lock in roles once they reach a threshold and have a true F3 or F5.
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Christopher
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Mimikyu wrote:
How does viewing someone twice as a role make your odds increase of being that role? I tried it for a sorc on lj and it went way up to 43% whistle

It's not directly that your odds increased, it's that anyone who didn't repeat a view lost worlds as a result and so their odds decreased. In future, I think I'd ensure no repetition of views, randomizing if necessary.
 
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zenofkermit wrote:
Please don't take this the wrong way cvb, but this game kind of feels like Monopoly werewolf. Even at the end, good had over 80% chance of winning and still lost. I hate dice and they hate me!

No worries, Kermit, I know there were various issues that prevented this from being a true werewolf game, the ending being one of the biggest ones.
 
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ljtrigirl wrote:
Cool experiment. I'd enjoy it maybe with a few caveats:

1) I think the lynch tallies should factor in, ie on D2, it should no longer have been possible for the 4 of us voting Jedit to have been the N1 NK.

2) I think everyone should start out with a role that they CAN'T have been. Like you roll a standard 9er, and then strike that from the options. Even for the three people that would roll villager, that'd be a ton of extra info.

3) The first and last lynches should both autowin unless they're relatively locked into an alignment to make being that less shitty.

I'd love to reach the end of the game with like 3-5 possible worlds instead of 250+. 3-5 makes for some really interesting endgame decisions.

1) That's definitely a neat idea I hadn't considered prior to the start. I'd also consider running the tallies world by world rather than giving everyone a vote, which would eliminate that problem in the first place. At that point, I might want a priority on wolf kills to prevent the number of scenarios to track from multiplying.

2) I'm absolutely keen to try that, as I think it goes some way towards preventing Royalflush's coordination strategy for winning as well (NK then lynch a guaranteed wolf).

3) I can certainly accept that. It's not too different from the N0 15er rule.
 
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