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Subject: No Reveal 15er* XII rss

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Patrick Hill
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BerenCamlost wrote:
pilotbob wrote:
The late move from Fan to Noob, actually points to evil more than not.

The wolves know the NKs would out noob as a wolf for sure... and that vote can be looked on as cred bussing.

I am glad someone said this, because it's what my slightly tipsy mind was thinking but I couldn't process.

I also did not wantt to say aumerle was using the word "shiny" wrong.
 
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Patrick Hill
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Aumerle wrote:
acox89 wrote:
[vote nets]

If he's not lynched today he will be tomorrow. Hopefully we hear something from Beren in the meantime.

I also am likely out for the evening. Happy New Year everyone!

I agree with this move. If we lynch Beren with no chance of defense today, we are risking the small (but possible) chance that Beren is real BG and said he was a villager yesterday because why come out as BG like that?

[vote Nets]

Nothing personal, seriously.

I don't think it's likely but it's possible and if we go down that road, once Beren is gone we could be costing the game for ourselves since bob moves into the circle of trust.

Nets is still in the circle of unproven folks so would likely be the tomorrow lynch as acox pointed out.

Of course what sucks about this is if Beren came out today and claimed BG we could just kill Beren/bob today/tomorrow in whatever order and get a wolf. If he does it tomorrow it's probably a lynch or lose situation tomorrow between Beren and bob. However, I will likely be dead and not have to deal with that so best wishes to whoever has to make that call.

And also Happy New Year to everyone and to all a good night

To the remaining wolf(ves) - I'm leaving my door unlocked, taking some sleeping pills and prefer a quick strike to the heart vs being chased around the house horror movie style. Thanks!

Hats off Aumerle.

I have comments on what I'd do if I were BG and had the same RL situation but I don't think it's relevant at this point and don't want it to be a datapoint. I'll comment after the game ends.
 
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Patrick Hill
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Jedit wrote:
Sorry, got a chest infection and been trying to sleep it off. At least I'm cleared, mostly.

I feel like Nets/Beren is the most likely team, Nets getting frustrated with Beren being absent and effectively leaving him as the only evil. If Nets is truthful, then I'm looking within only a couple of people depending on who survives the night.

This is actually terrible logic about a me and nets team. Nets could very well havee been a wolf, but I don't believe abets would (1) take out frustration at a wolf partner to a whole village. He's got a flair for the dramatic but he isn't cruel.

Now, I am going to give Nets some benefit of the doubt and say he's good. If so, I believe wolves were probably whirling and absolutely noob. If wolves are exactly noob, mrfan and acox then we lose. I don't think acox gets lynched before me due to my absence in general.

So in my world, good!Nets means one wolf left in mrfan and acox or both of them are wolves and we're doomed or pilotbob is a wolf and the BG is dead and we are doomed.
 
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Patrick Hill
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Aumerle wrote:
As a side note, is anyone else clicking refresh every 2 seconds, hoping/not hoping for a Beren post?

I was at a very loud karaoke bar in Hackney.
 
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Patrick Hill
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Farren wrote:
BerenCamlost wrote:
I am not sure why you did t if Nets was here and I was not given that he doesn't seem to be his typical "fake mad" wolf self. I, however, can be absent regardless or being good or evil. I am good however and will apologize now to team good if my presence loses us the game. I am in London so it's already 2019!

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year indeed.

So we've got an uncountered BG when a BG's presence was firmly established, two Seer-cleared people, and three people who all have reasonably solid credibility based on past actions.

Is it mrfan, acox, or both?

If both, I think we lose. Let's say we lynch mrfan and acox is a wolf. Tonight, one of pilot, jedit, you dies (pilot if he's legit). We are at four. Let's assume we no lynch. Then one of that same group dies and it's me, acox and the last clear. Well, I think I die there and evil acox wins.
 
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Patrick Hill
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Farren wrote:
BerenCamlost wrote:
Netslummer wrote:
I still would rather die but if we can kill a wolf instead, im happy.

I'm leaving work (half day) and will be mobile. I'll check in occasionally.

[vote beren]

This lynch paired with the fed tthet you just said Noob's views should be viewed as FUD would ha e made me switch to you if I had ever showed up. I don't understand how these two thoughts are cohesive?

Nets is dead. Why are you trying to question him?

Rhetorical. I checked to make sure I was not dead before posting. I knew he was dead. He could still have been evil with a living partner.
 
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Patrick Hill
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BerenCamlost wrote:
Netslummer wrote:
Pilotbob!!!

Barring a cc this game is solved for me. Beren and fan are our wolves unless acox is super deep wolfing us

And?

Also rhetorical in case it wasn't clear.
 
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Patrick Hill
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acox89 wrote:
Jedit wrote:
The_Rorab wrote:
How many of you actually think I'm evil versus are defaulting to a Villager claim out of curiosity?

If you think my play of NFing so I can't self-save, and claiming Villager to be the alternative lynch is me being evil then I must have hoodwinked you all into thinking I'm a better player than I am to make that kind of cockamamie evil play laugh

But I dig - I think that if Noob is real (which even if he's uncountered could still be true if a N0 kill was Seer), then evils are in Farren, Jedit, Bob likeliest and that's where shots and suspicions should go!

As per usual, it's been lovely to play with y'all! heart

It's a heck of a risk to fake claim Seer.

It's really not. Seer could be dead. Plus if your a wolf about to be lynched why not claim special?

Yeah, acox I think maaaaybe just jumps on Rorab here and not nets. It's tough because if both are good and he's evil, it does not matter. Though Rorab and acox have this adorable way of reading each other and I want to think acox's last minute defense of Rorab was genuine.
 
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Patrick Hill
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It's going to be very hard for me to not vote mrfan. I think we lose if acox or pilotbob are wolves no matter what.

Mrfan, if you're good, can you see a world I'm also good and justify it?
 
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Farren Bronaugh
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BerenCamlost wrote:
Farren wrote:
BerenCamlost wrote:
I am not sure why you did t if Nets was here and I was not given that he doesn't seem to be his typical "fake mad" wolf self. I, however, can be absent regardless or being good or evil. I am good however and will apologize now to team good if my presence loses us the game. I am in London so it's already 2019!

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year indeed.

So we've got an uncountered BG when a BG's presence was firmly established, two Seer-cleared people, and three people who all have reasonably solid credibility based on past actions.

Is it mrfan, acox, or both?

If both, I think we lose. Let's say we lynch mrfan and acox is a wolf. Tonight, one of pilot, jedit, you dies (pilot if he's legit). We are at four. Let's assume we no lynch. Then one of that same group dies and it's me, acox and the last clear. Well, I think I die there and evil acox wins.

No Lynch wouldn't really help matters much in a final 4 with two living clears. It's really only helpful in cases where there are no living clears - forces the wolf to remove a non-cleared person and narrow the pool. If the wolf has a cleared person to eliminate, it just means one less trusted voice for people to calibrate against.
 
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David Chapman
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Go home Beren, you're drunk. devil
 
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BerenCamlost wrote:
It's going to be very hard for me to not vote mrfan. I think we lose if acox or pilotbob are wolves no matter what.

Mrfan, if you're good, can you see a world I'm also good and justify it?

So I'm caught up.

Yeah, I think I get what you are saying. You are saying that if acox is evil, good!you will be lynched before him and so we will lose, having presumably already (mis)lynched me. And so you have to lynch me.

I don't think that quite right, though. You should vote for me if you genuinely think I'm more likely a wolf than acox or pilotbob. I absolutely agree that on the state of claims, pilotbob is almost clear. I think it's a bit circular to say we've lost if acox is a wolf, so no point voting him here.

I can absolutely see a world where you are good. I think in that world acox is the last wolf - I think I do lean to the pilotbob claim having been too great a risk for a wolf - esp3cislly as it required a tactical nokill.

Prior to seeing your posts this morning, I would definitely have rated you more likely wolf than acox. Now you've given us something to go on, I'm going to reflect when I have some time in a bit.

Hope you're enjoying London!
 
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[vote mrfan]

If you believe that Bob is the BG, then in the world where Beren is good you're not thinking acox is the last wolf because he would be the only possible wolf.
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (6/15) - # - Voted by

Mrfan - 2 - BerenCamlost(1), Jedit(2)

Not Voting: acox89, Farren, Mrfan, pilotbob


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 4:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 4:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

BerenCamlost - 1 - Mrfan(1)
Jedit - 1 - Mrfan(2)

Not Voting: acox89, Farren, Mrfan, pilotbob
 
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Jedit wrote:
[vote mrfan]

If you believe that Bob is the BG, then in the world where Beren is good you're not thinking acox is the last wolf because he would be the only possible wolf.

I think you are over reading into my use of the word thinking. I am not mechanically certain pilotbob is the bodyguard; I strongly believe him to be so. Thus, in good!beren world, I think acox is evil. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
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I told mod I could play today, but it turns out I am going out for game day so won't be able to.

So, Imma [vote mrfan] and probably won't be back again today. Sorry peeps.
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (6/15) - # - Voted by

Mrfan - 3 - BerenCamlost(1), Jedit(2), pilotbob(3)

Not Voting: acox89, Farren, Mrfan


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 4:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 4:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

BerenCamlost - 1 - Mrfan(1)
Jedit - 1 - Mrfan(2)
pilotbob - 1 - Mrfan(3)

Not Voting: acox89, Farren, Mrfan
 
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Farren Bronaugh
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mrfan wrote:
BerenCamlost wrote:
It's going to be very hard for me to not vote mrfan. I think we lose if acox or pilotbob are wolves no matter what.

Mrfan, if you're good, can you see a world I'm also good and justify it?

So I'm caught up.

Yeah, I think I get what you are saying. You are saying that if acox is evil, good!you will be lynched before him and so we will lose, having presumably already (mis)lynched me. And so you have to lynch me.

I don't think that quite right, though. You should vote for me if you genuinely think I'm more likely a wolf than acox or pilotbob. I absolutely agree that on the state of claims, pilotbob is almost clear. I think it's a bit circular to say we've lost if acox is a wolf, so no point voting him here.

I can absolutely see a world where you are good. I think in that world acox is the last wolf - I think I do lean to the pilotbob claim having been too great a risk for a wolf - esp3cislly as it required a tactical nokill.

Prior to seeing your posts this morning, I would definitely have rated you more likely wolf than acox. Now you've given us something to go on, I'm going to reflect when I have some time in a bit.

Hope you're enjoying London!

I don't like the highlighted portions above. Either one would be fine as a stand-alone comment, but together - one sounds like you're a point away from certainty; the other sounds like you're just barely over the line of uncertainty.

Why the shift mid-post?
 
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Probably my only check in today. Sorry guys, just not going to be around. I'm ok with [vote mrfan] today. If the game doesn't end, from my perspective we just need to lynch Beren tomorrow and that should be it.
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (6/15) - # - Voted by

Mrfan - 4 - BerenCamlost(1), Jedit(2), pilotbob(3), acox89(4)

Not Voting: Farren, Mrfan


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 4:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 4:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

acox89 - 1 - Mrfan(4)
BerenCamlost - 1 - Mrfan(1)
Jedit - 1 - Mrfan(2)
pilotbob - 1 - Mrfan(3)

Not Voting: Farren, Mrfan
 
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Farren Bronaugh
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Why is it that I'm seeing about a thousand flashing red warning lights here ?
 
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David Chapman
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Farren wrote:
Why is it that I'm seeing about a thousand flashing red warning lights here ?

You're not alone. But if as we assume there's only one wolf left, we know it's not you and Fan isn't going to vote himself. If there's two then of course we lose if Fan isn't one of them, but honestly that doesn't seem likely as it would mean Acox and Beren were both evil.
 
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Jedit wrote:
Farren wrote:
Why is it that I'm seeing about a thousand flashing red warning lights here ?

You're not alone. But if as we assume there's only one wolf left, we know it's not you and Fan isn't going to vote himself. If there's two then of course we lose if Fan isn't one of them, but honestly that doesn't seem likely as it would mean Acox and Beren were both evil.

I would really like to know how acox went from thinking Beren was the third wolf to thinking mrfan was the third wolf.
 
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Farren Bronaugh
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Problem is, perspective.

From any of the uncleared players' perspectives, there are three realistic possibilities for the game-state. From player A's perspective, the wolves are either B, C, or both.

So it's understandable that any of them would just tackle things from the perspective of "Eh, doesn't matter as long as I don't get lynched." Problem is, that's also an inherently an Evil perspective as well - just maybe has to get applied to two days instead of one.
 
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Farren Bronaugh
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Jedit wrote:
mrfan wrote:
mrfan wrote:
I get the point that in the world where whirling was a wolf, we are not at must lynch, and in that world noob is almost certainly a wolf, because aumerle wouldn't have put themselves in harms way.

And if we are at must lynch, and noob is the wolf, then farren is good, and so either the wolves are exactly nets, jedit, noob, or a wolf is bussing noob.

So from jedit or nets perspective, they do not lose today if they vote aumerle, but they might if they vote noob.
Except of course that the bussing wolf could snipe and it's game over.

Yeah, I don't think jedit's argument goes fully through.

Good point about the snipe.

[unvote all]

Jedit, this was what convinced you to unvote, yes? If mrfan's Evil, that was a major case of shooting himself in the foot.
 
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