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Subject: A game for 19, you guessed it... with Mike! rss

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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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Farren wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
Sorry I had to bail so early, I just thought that it'd be better with me having to replace out so early.

Ended up seriously discombobulating me after that TT business, that's for sure.

I wanted to try and figure you out!
 
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hibou
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With Trigun being this lock consensus good read for so many people, I find it really bizarre that she's alive. There's a threshold where if she's still alive she should probably be murdalated.
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MajaiofDreams wrote:
RoyalApe wrote:
MajaiofDreams wrote:
I found the freaken Seer on my FIRST VIEW! Got them killed immediately and we still lost..


seers are worthless.

but oh did I really want another view or two these last couple of days.

Are you joking or serious when you say seers are worthless???

I mean in this game it kind of was because the moment I get the seer killed 3 out of my 5 evil buddies all got locked in claim wars with good specials, so it was simple process of elimination to eliminate team wolf.

😡😢

Mostly serious.

Death to all seers!

The only thing I like about Seers is pretending to be them when I'm not.
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Smugs wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
Sorry I had to bail so early, I just thought that it'd be better with me having to replace out so early.

I'm grateful, I enjoyed the hell out of this game!

Because I was in it. 😁
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ljtrigirl wrote:
Farren wrote:
ljtrigirl wrote:
Sorry I had to bail so early, I just thought that it'd be better with me having to replace out so early.

Ended up seriously discombobulating me after that TT business, that's for sure.

I wanted to try and figure you out!

Good luck. I've been trying for years.
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If milk had been dead n1 then lkynching mimik d2 becomes the correct play discounting reads
It's not really fair to say that anyone who has a read on mimik being good is wrong for having the read, so it's conceivable for goods to leave him alive the entire game and be right
So saying that lynching mimik is "correct" without an aux seer is wrong although it's definitely what people with random reads should be doing
However you have to be right enough if the time to make up for the times where it's wrong to leave him alive, and I'm basically never going to not lynch someone who I think is remotely balanced because they could be tinker
 
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ThatAblaze wrote:
So Smugs.. you really thought my claim was so bad that you HAD to counter it?

Yeah, but also hedge that if you are the BG, then I'm offering cover.
 
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Smugs wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
So Smugs.. you really thought my claim was so bad that you HAD to counter it?

Yeah, but also hedge that if you are the BG, then I'm offering cover.

I think it was good
I believed you over ablaze fwiw
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Day (she/her)
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Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
Smugs wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
So Smugs.. you really thought my claim was so bad that you HAD to counter it?

Yeah, but also hedge that if you are the BG, then I'm offering cover.

I think it was good
I believed you over ablaze fwiw
Alright you two. robot

You can eat my heart between the two of you, I'll just have to take consolation from what the wolves believed.
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Gg everyone!
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Kevin
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I thought smugs play was good - but never the actual BG. Shrug.
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MajaiofDreams wrote:
I found the freaken Seer on my FIRST VIEW! Got them killed immediately and we still lost..


What made you decide to view me?
 
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RoyalApe wrote:
I thought smugs play was good - but never the actual BG. Shrug.

I watched the game, and I never believed Smugs' claim for one second! It screamed Smugs doing a thing
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Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
I'm with you, even though I didn't end up voting for it. I think if the village had been reading things differently we would have voted for Ame or left it be. We didn't just vote into hunter claims there, we voted into the CC war for the weaker role that would shed light on the CC for the more important role, and solving it like that boxed in evil a lot.
 
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Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not ,sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?

I mean, now that we know the roles, we spent a lynch on the hunter for basically no gain which seems very bad

I think the best play is to leave the hunters alive for the entire game and lynch noob near must lynch if we believe ser. If we believe noob I think it's good to lynch dejo but that's because it means auxes are ser and majai , and dejo is so likely a wolf that lynching her and not having to potentially detough the mimic makes up for the times where we're wrong. The only info we get from the hunters points towards noob being fake like what happened this game, it's virtually impossible to get info which points to ser being fake which makes solving it more relevant if we believe noob

But if we believe ser which we did, we can lynch noob and majai and then we have to find the one evil outside the hunters
If dejo or amy is wolf and we fail to find the theoretical mimic there then it's worse but what seems much more likely is that an aux is in the hunters and lynching dejo is just freerolling the chance that we're lkynching the actual hunter and wasting a lynch
If you think dejo is wolf if evil then it's probably fine to lynch there assuming roughly equal chances of fee and amy being real but I don't think there was a particularly good reason to think that and I thought the reverse was more likely especially when she self voted
If we lynch noob and the theoretical mimic in the pool then we stilll win by leaving wolfDejo alive but if amy is fake then it's obviously just going to always be bad assuming she's mimic
 
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Rob
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The_Rorab wrote:
RoyalApe wrote:
I thought smugs play was good - but never the actual BG. Shrug.

I watched the game, and I never believed Smugs' claim for one second! It screamed Smugs doing a thing

You thumb this Blaze but I was convinced until like D5 you were an aux
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ThatAblaze wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
I'm with you, even though I didn't end up voting for it. I think if the village had been reading things differently we would have voted for Ame or left it be. We didn't just vote into hunter claims there, we voted into the CC war for the weaker role that would shed light on the CC for the more important role, and solving it like that boxed in evil a lot.

The main problem with this though which I described in the above post is that the only way it can solve the priests is if it points to noob being fake if we see or assume that one of the hunters is a mimic
There's no info we can get from the hunters that makes ser look more real than noob, so it only solves it in the direction we were already leaning
Like, I don't think Amekins flipping wolf changed whether or not the village was going to lynch noob
 
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The_Rorab wrote:
The_Rorab wrote:
RoyalApe wrote:
I thought smugs play was good - but never the actual BG. Shrug.

I watched the game, and I never believed Smugs' claim for one second! It screamed Smugs doing a thing

You thumb this Blaze but I was convinced until like D5 you were an aux
That's business as usual.
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
I'm with you, even though I didn't end up voting for it. I think if the village had been reading things differently we would have voted for Ame or left it be. We didn't just vote into hunter claims there, we voted into the CC war for the weaker role that would shed light on the CC for the more important role, and solving it like that boxed in evil a lot.

The main problem with this though which I described in the above post is that the only way it can solve the priests is if it points to noob being fake if we see or assume that one of the hunters is a mimic
There's no info we can get from the hunters that makes ser look more real than noob, so it only solves it in the direction we were already leaning
Like, I don't think Amekins flipping wolf changed whether or not the village was going to lynch noob
It's a good thing you didn't make this argument during the game or I would have demanded your head.

(because it sounds evil)
 
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ThatAblaze wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
I'm with you, even though I didn't end up voting for it. I think if the village had been reading things differently we would have voted for Ame or left it be. We didn't just vote into hunter claims there, we voted into the CC war for the weaker role that would shed light on the CC for the more important role, and solving it like that boxed in evil a lot.

The main problem with this though which I described in the above post is that the only way it can solve the priests is if it points to noob being fake if we see or assume that one of the hunters is a mimic
There's no info we can get from the hunters that makes ser look more real than noob, so it only solves it in the direction we were already leaning
Like, I don't think Amekins flipping wolf changed whether or not the village was going to lynch noob
It's a good thing you didn't make this argument during the game or I would have demanded your head.

Why?
Did you believe noob?
 
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It's true though
If you either gain information or not with a play, but the only info it can provide will point towards what you believe, then it's basically meaningless

If the whole village had believed noob then it does become relevant because in that world we re actually giving ourselves a chance to correct a mistake
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ThatAblaze wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
I'm with you, even though I didn't end up voting for it. I think if the village had been reading things differently we would have voted for Ame or left it be. We didn't just vote into hunter claims there, we voted into the CC war for the weaker role that would shed light on the CC for the more important role, and solving it like that boxed in evil a lot.

The main problem with this though which I described in the above post is that the only way it can solve the priests is if it points to noob being fake if we see or assume that one of the hunters is a mimic
There's no info we can get from the hunters that makes ser look more real than noob, so it only solves it in the direction we were already leaning
Like, I don't think Amekins flipping wolf changed whether or not the village was going to lynch noob
It's a good thing you didn't make this argument during the game or I would have demanded your head.

(because it sounds evil)
I mean, if the village always responds to X with Y and never with the slightly sub-optimal option Z then that really makes it an easy ride for evil.
 
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ThatAblaze wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
ThatAblaze wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?
I'm with you, even though I didn't end up voting for it. I think if the village had been reading things differently we would have voted for Ame or left it be. We didn't just vote into hunter claims there, we voted into the CC war for the weaker role that would shed light on the CC for the more important role, and solving it like that boxed in evil a lot.

The main problem with this though which I described in the above post is that the only way it can solve the priests is if it points to noob being fake if we see or assume that one of the hunters is a mimic
There's no info we can get from the hunters that makes ser look more real than noob, so it only solves it in the direction we were already leaning
Like, I don't think Amekins flipping wolf changed whether or not the village was going to lynch noob
It's a good thing you didn't make this argument during the game or I would have demanded your head.

(because it sounds evil)
I mean, if the village always responds to X with Y and never with the slightly sub-optimal option Z then that really makes it an easy ride for evil.

What are x y and z in this example
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
What are x y and z in this example
X is the dual CC between hunters and priest, y is to not solve either of them, and z is to point the hunter's claimed brutals at each other and solve that claim while the priest is still alive.
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Can we talk about the dejo lynch?
I feel like it's not only bad in a vacuum but also reallly bad from a meta standpoint
If lynching dejo there is the correct play then Amekins can always decide to counter there as aux and we end up lynching the hunter, which can't be correct
It's very complex though so I'm keen for a discussion

I disagree that it was the wrong play (obviously, I suggested it ). I don't think it's always the right play, but I didn't have a Good read of Dejo really. So while I thought she was more likely Good than Ame, I wasn't convinced that she was Good. Like, I'd have believed probably most of the rest of the Villager pool ahead of her if they'd claimed it. I thought she was definitely a Wolf if Evil, so worth killing to get rid of that possibility. Also, I'm not ,sure that the defy parity thing is so strong.

Can you map out what you think the best play is there, especially now we know the roles?

I mean, now that we know the roles, we spent a lynch on the hunter for basically no gain which seems very bad

I think the best play is to leave the hunters alive for the entire game and lynch noob near must lynch if we believe ser. If we believe noob I think it's good to lynch dejo but that's because it means auxes are ser and majai , and dejo is so likely a wolf that lynching her and not having to potentially detough the mimic makes up for the times where we're wrong. The only info we get from the hunters points towards noob being fake like what happened this game, it's virtually impossible to get info which points to ser being fake which makes solving it more relevant if we believe noob

But if we believe ser which we did, we can lynch noob and majai and then we have to find the one evil outside the hunters
If dejo or amy is wolf and we fail to find the theoretical mimic there then it's worse but what seems much more likely is that an aux is in the hunters and lynching dejo is just freerolling the chance that we're lkynching the actual hunter and wasting a lynch
If you think dejo is wolf if evil then it's probably fine to lynch there assuming roughly equal chances of fee and amy being real but I don't think there was a particularly good reason to think that and I thought the reverse was more likely especially when she self voted
If we lynch noob and the theoretical mimic in the pool then we stilll win by leaving wolfDejo alive but if amy is fake then it's obviously just going to always be bad assuming she's mimic

Okay, I think I get it. I didn't at the time, because I was concerned you were saying "why don't we leave these two people who might both be Wolves alive til near the end of the game" which scared the hell out of me. I guess if I'd actually looked at what I was proposing there, I'd have recognised it as unlikely.
 
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