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Subject: Minimum Result in US Midterm to make you Happy? rss

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Bill Cook
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I want to see a movement like this country hasn't seen in ages. Where Americans of all stripes come out in record numbers and vote Republicans out of office and Democrats in. I want this to be seen as the most stunning rebuke of a US president and his policies in history. I want the message to be so strong, and the Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress to be so strong that we do a complete 180 on policies in Washington.

But that's not going to happen.

So I've been thinking about what is the minimum that could happen that I could walk away from happy. Democratic majority in the House, with at least a few seat cushion to cover shenanigans. Clean victory for Gillium in Florida. At least one prominent idiot-conservative (Steve King, etc.) suffers humiliating loss. And while I'm on the fence in "requiring" this, Stacy Abrams winning in Georgia.

Would love to hear from others - especially conservatives - on what it will take to make them happy.
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Jeff Brown
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EMBison wrote:
I want to see a movement like this country hasn't seen in ages. Where Americans of all stripes come out in record numbers and vote Republicans out of office and Democrats in. I want this to be seen as the most stunning rebuke of a US president and his policies in history. I want the message to be so strong, and the Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress to be so strong that we do a complete 180 on policies in Washington.

But that's not going to happen.

So I've been thinking about what is the minimum that could happen that I could walk away from happy. Democratic majority in the House, with at least a few seat cushion to cover shenanigans. Clean victory for Gillium in Florida. At least one prominent idiot-conservative (Steve King, etc.) suffers humiliating loss. And while I'm on the fence in "requiring" this, Stacy Abrams winning in Georgia.

Would love to hear from others - especially conservatives - on what it will take to make them happy.


Really just a democratic majority in the house with a few seats as cushion I think would go a long way to staving off the apocalypse at least for a little while. I am trying to keep my expectations low otherwise.
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Edgar the Woebringer
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Not looking to be "happy", looking to be "relieved."

So, there isn't really a threshold of yes or no...more like: the more GOP politicians are removed from power, the more relieved I will be. Looking for "stopping power" here, it's the sum of my hopes that we can limit the bleeding and restore some semblance of integrity to the government.

I don't have any hopes or expectations that this would end the ongoing civil war. That is caused by the populace, the people they elect are just the symptom.
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Pontifex Maximus
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House flipping is definitely a minimum. We need the increased oversight (any is more than none). And keeping the far right in the House in check is critical.

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Daniel Kearns
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As long as people who wanted to vote got to vote, I'm happy.

The voter suppression thing is very troubling to me. Having people shine a light on shit like Georgia and Kansas has been enlightening in a bad way.
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Andre
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House has a comfy Dem majority.

Senate is lost, so simply maintain what the Dems currently have would be nice.

Dem governors get elected en masse, winning most of the races, so they have the veto power over re-apportionment process in 2020.

Steven King voted out, laughs. That guy is as white nationalist as we're going to get, in Congress.

As long as Trump is worrying about the troubles the Dems might bring him from the House, he will be negated from doing any more damage to this country. That is all one can really hope for, before people come to their senses by 2020 (hopefully). Odd that I even have to put a qualifier in that last statement, I seriously thought that would be a given by now, given the freak show currently occupying the White House.
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Trey Chambers
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If the House flips, I'm throwing a party (attendance: me).

The Senate is way more important, but that's such a long shot. I'd just be happy with any kind of rejection of Trumpism at this point.
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mortego
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What would make me happy at the minimum?

Election:House Majority

What would make me happy, in general?

Election: House & Senate majority

Then: Mueller Investigation Is released & Trump and all his cronies get put away. Pence immediately resigns. McConnell trips and falls. World peace happens.

laugh
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mike hayes
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My minimum hope for the US Midterm Elections lies not just in the seats-outcome but in an intelligent, structured long-term continuation of effort by all those electors who want something better than Trump.

Lack of structure was a distinguishing feature of "The Other Side" whether it was those with a hatred of the Washington Swamp or (in the UK)those with a hatred of immigrants or of Europe who voted for Brexit.

Whether you are a goodie or baddie, throwing your weight behind a nation's change in direction is useless unless well-planned implementation follows.

A metaphor. It might be necessary to escape from a prison-camp. Jumping over the wire is not enough. It helps to have provisions, to learn skills to avoid capture and to have researched the route to safety.

Another metaphor. Playing chess, what should you do if you feel that there is a weakness in your opponent's kingside? A novice is likely to be over-optimistic in his attack. A more experienced player will evaluate many lines and choose one where even if the opponent chooses the best response, there is a detailed plan that leaves him/her on top.

If these metaphors are relevant, the boardgaming community have special skills to advise on technology-transfer in pre-election planning.
 
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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Happy? . . . Happy you say?

The only happy outcome is every last candidate for any office in any state goes to a Democrat such that the Republican party has no choice but to jettison Trump and anyone else like him in order to survive as a relevant entity.

Assuming that wouldn't trigger a civil war, which it very well might under the current climate.

If I can't have that, then I want the blue wave to materialize as a real thing and not just wishful thinking form the left.

Edit: I do not like liberal governance, mind you. Some of the talking points in RSP still irritate the hell out of me. I just dislike Trump significantly more.
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JPotter - Bits77
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The expected result, Dems taking the house, the Senate staying the same is a baseline.

Some surprising positives would make me happy.

Such as Cruz or Nunes losing, Edmondson winning the governor's seat in my state, net Blue gains in the Senate.

The more, the happier.

___________


Much more potential for happiness in 2020. Looking forward to the Presidential race getting underway. I want to hear some firebrands. I want to see movements. I want to see people in power nervous again.

And fuhgawdssake, Kentucky, don't let McConnell buy another election.
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Scott Russell
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In Michigan, I'm hoping the gerrymandering and marijuana proposals pass. That is as much as I can hope for towards making me happy.

(I'm in favor of almost all provisions of the voter rights proposal, but wish it didn't include enshrining the right to straight ticket voting into the constitution along with the good stuff that's there. I'll probably go ahead and vote yes on it, too.)
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Simon Jester
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qzhdad wrote:

(I'm in favor of almost all provisions of the voter rights proposal, but wish it didn't include enshrining the right to straight ticket voting into the constitution along with the good stuff that's there. I'll probably go ahead and vote yes on it, too.)


What is it that you dislike about straight ticket voting?

Or is it the enshrinement that you oppose rather than the practice itself?
 
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Simon Jester
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I guess I'll be "happy" if my low expectations are exceeded.

If the Dems net-gain a seat in the Senate, I'll be "happy".
If they take a commanding lead in the House instead of bare mathematical majority.
If Cruz loses.
If the Dems win 2/3 of the statistically tied races.

Of course, that's assuming a definition of happiness that approximates to "pleasantly surprised". For me to be truly happy, the GOP would have to lose bigly across the board, be unambiguously repudiated from coast to coast. A sane country that I could be unqualifiedly, unreservedly proud of would take this opportunity to heave Trumpism into the sea.

And that's just not going to happen.
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Andrew Bartosh

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Seriously though, I'll take any sort of gains. I'm not actually confident in that happening, though.
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Scott Russell
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Zedsdead wrote:
qzhdad wrote:

(I'm in favor of almost all provisions of the voter rights proposal, but wish it didn't include enshrining the right to straight ticket voting into the constitution along with the good stuff that's there. I'll probably go ahead and vote yes on it, too.)


What is it that you dislike about straight ticket voting?

Or is it the enshrinement that you oppose rather than the practice itself?


If you can't be bothered to check multiple boxes, I don't particularly want you voting.

If nothing else, if someone like Trump won a primary for your (generic you) party, I want you to have to check his name and own the vote (if only in your head) if he wins.

And, basically, I think it reinforces the concept of Blue team vs Red team and politics shouldn't be a team sport.

If I haven't done at least minimal research for the candidates for a position, I don't usually check any of the boxes for that office. (Full disclosure, I do often vote third party for all of the state university trustee candidates without research, because they won't be winning any time soon and I really don't know what a university trustee does.)
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Mac Mcleod
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Happier... possible.

Happy in the way I was before republicans went authoritarian? Unfortunately not possible. 100% is no longer possible.

I'll be happier if enough democrats are elected to regain the house.
I'd be much happier if we got 51 democrats in the senate. The senate is the main issue. Then control of the state legislatures for 2020.

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Bill Cook
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Fixed that for you (just put the id in the youtube box, not the whole link)

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Chad Ellis
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I'm unlikely to be happy, because to be happy about politics I would have to live in a country that (having made the mistake of electing Trump) recognized that Trump needs to be checked and that the GOP is utterly unwilling to exercise basic oversight.

BUT...

At this point I will be content with the Democrats regaining the House. That's enough to protect Mueller and to initiate some investigations, while also blocking the bad parts of Trump's agenda (at least the ones Congress can block).

I will be semi-happy if the Democrats at least hold their ground in the Senate, and happy if they get a majority. In an odd way, I'll be unhappy if they get to 50-50 because I think that's Pence's wet dream and I'm fairly certain that anything that makes him politically happy is bad for the nation and the universe.

I'll be happy if the Democrats do as well in Governor elections as it looks like they will.

I'll also be happy if the national discussion includes a serious look at the fact that Democrats got way more votes than Republicans and that due to gerrymandering (and, FWIW, the way the Senate is formed) this is not reflected in national offices.
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G Rowls
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when are the results in and (if they lose) when do the republican legal challenges start?
 
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Walt
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qzhdad wrote:
If you can't be bothered to check multiple boxes, I don't particularly want you voting.

If nothing else, if someone like Trump won a primary for your (generic you) party, I want you to have to check his name and own the vote (if only in your head) if he wins.

And, basically, I think it reinforces the concept of Blue team vs Red team and politics shouldn't be a team sport.

If I haven't done at least minimal research for the candidates for a position, I don't usually check any of the boxes for that office. (Full disclosure, I do often vote third party for all of the state university trustee candidates without research, because they won't be winning any time soon and I really don't know what a university trustee does.)

I don't agree with your first point, but I agree with the next two.

For the last, I vote against the incumbents to offset incumbent advantage. I figure it's a null vote usually, but if there's some opposition I haven't discovered, I'm probably on the right, or at least neutral, side.
___

Minimum: Comfortably take the House, flip my own House seat, and do okay in the Senate--about the status quo is, I think, the best that can be hoped for.

Better: Heavy blue wave in State legislatures and governors.

Improbably good: 51/49 Senate. I'd love to see Beto win. Interesting article on TX:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/11/somethings...

Basically, take away TX voter ID, suppression, and gerrymandering, and you have California. TX has one of the worst voting percentages; CA one of the best. Sooner or later, TX is going to flip big time, and it probably won't flip back (barring the GOP's return to Conservatism).

Thinking about, "Why the difference?", I think a major factor is the CA initiative process. We vote for what we want, so the only remaining issue is how good is my local representation? We didn't want inflation raising property taxes, so it went away. We didn't want gerrymandering, so it went away. The politicians can hardly criticize the voters! I don't necessarily agree with everything my fellow Californians pass, but better happy neighbors than irate tribes.

(A big new apartment building opened near me a while ago. I presume a lot of people moved in from out of state. Some seemed pretty grumpy. But, either they moved back or calmed down. I haven't encountered an unhappy person in some time.)
 
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JPotter - Bits77
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EMBison wrote:
Fixed that for you (just put the id in the youtube box, not the whole link)


Ha, thanks, guess I should stop split-screening so much!
 
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Trump dies tomorrow.

Jk. Sorta.
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Trey Chambers
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Sue_G wrote:
Trump dies tomorrow.

Jk. Sorta.


Unfortunately I think he's more of a symptom than a cause.

Plus, Pence sucks.
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Bill Cook
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growlley wrote:
when are the results in and (if they lose) when do the republican legal challenges start?


Poll closing times vary by state (see map below). If a race isn't that close, it can be called when the polls close, or soon thereafter. If it's close it can take hours as votes are counted and tallied. (One quirk of American vote counting is that R-leaning rural areas count tend to get their votes in first and D-leaning cities are slower to report.) If it's vary close, you have to wait until morning to know who one. If there are legal challenges, they will come about a week from now.

Dems pretty much need to run the table to take the Senate, so we'll know early that they've failed.

Dem pickup for governor of FL and GA (or failure to do so) should be known early.

Control of the House will likely be decided by some very close districts in California. A good chance that we wake up (in the US) Wednesday morning still unsure who won.

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