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Terra Mystica» Forums » Organized Play

Subject: Season 29 of the Terra Mystica tournament rss

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Juho Snellman
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Signups are open at http://tmtour.org/, as usual.
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Steve Haas
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We have an unusually large number of high-division returners already, with Xevoc, Alex (aka xnor), and RainbowJoe all apparently returning.

Hopefully this is just some good players returning after a long absence, but I do feel obligated to note that its a little strange that a) 3 ex-D1 players are all coming back at the same time after none having done so for a year or more, and b) all of them have changed countries relative to the ones they were using when they played before. And two of those countries are among the first three options in the country drop-down in the signup form. Which seems a little fishy.
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Eric Zhu
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Steve496 wrote:
We have an unusually large number of high-division returners already, with Xevoc, Alex (aka xnor), and RainbowJoe all apparently returning.

Hopefully this is just some good players returning after a long absence, but I do feel obligated to note that its a little strange that a) 3 ex-D1 players are all coming back at the same time after none having done so for a year or more, and b) all of them have changed countries relative to the ones they were using when they played before. And two of those countries are among the first three options in the country drop-down in the signup form. Which seems a little fishy.


Hi Steve:
I'm sorry that Xevoc was signed up by me by mistake. I was curious about whether tmtour.org would verify identity if someone sign up with another player's ID, then...it unexpectedly passed with wrong email and country. What the fuck is that!!!

After that I told someone else what happened. Maybe Alex and RainbowJoe are in the same case.
 
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It's strange that season 29 is the first time someone tries that... or bjolletz changed the code that had this side effect which is unlikely
 
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Brian Hawaiian
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pigfans wrote:
Steve496 wrote:
We have an unusually large number of high-division returners already, with Xevoc, Alex (aka xnor), and RainbowJoe all apparently returning.

Hopefully this is just some good players returning after a long absence, but I do feel obligated to note that its a little strange that a) 3 ex-D1 players are all coming back at the same time after none having done so for a year or more, and b) all of them have changed countries relative to the ones they were using when they played before. And two of those countries are among the first three options in the country drop-down in the signup form. Which seems a little fishy.


Hi Steve:
I'm sorry that Xevoc was signed up by me by mistake. I was curious about whether tmtour.org would verify identity if someone sign up with another player's ID, then...it unexpectedly passed with wrong email and country. What the fuck is that!!!

After that I told someone else what happened. Maybe Alex and RainbowJoe are in the same case.


Damn I was looking forward to Xevoc's return.
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Daniel Åkerlund
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Thanks for being so observant Steve. I will remove the signups for the mentioned players and inform them about what happened. If you notice more suspicious signups, please let me know.

The current TMTour signup solution is open to this kind of "attack", which is kind of obvious since no authentication is required to signup. It was the simplest solution at the time and has been working fine up until now as far as I know. Actually verifying that a user has access to the account being signed up requires some additional integration between TMTour and snellman. I'll discuss this with Juho and see if we can come up with something.
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Steve Haas
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Thanks for looking into it.

Here's my current survey of returning players. I don't know the lower-division players as well so I can't swear that there aren't other fraudulent signups, but there's nothing obvious that jumps out at me. Mostly D4-and-under players coming back mostly after short layoffs is pretty much what I've come to expect:

Division 4 Eligible: 4 Players
-----------------------------------------
Ranior 3108 27 3 7
Narxsar 3114 27 4 4
VHOORLYS 3109 27 4 5
fuguta 3123 27 5 1

Division 5 Eligible: 4 Players
-----------------------------------------
Musti 3125 27 5 5
DamonRidenow 3130 27 5 5
redessa 3119 27 5 5
paipenos 2601 23 6 1

Division 6 Eligible: 9 Players
Division 7 Eligible: 20 Players
Division 8 Eligible: 15 Players

Longest Layoffs
-----------------------------------------
luciferyxw 1103 12 8 5
Alpha-Omega 1049 12 7 6
 
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Ryan Feathers
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For what little it probably is worth, I will at least confirm I truly signed up to return this season. Just took off one season there for the holidays and a quick break.
 
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Ruben Schlüter
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Quote:
Longest Layoffs
-----------------------------------------
Alpha-Omega 1049 12 7 6


Confirming I actually signed up after a long long break.
 
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Steve Haas
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I remember you - we played each other back in season 11. Welcome back!
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Ruben Schlüter
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Steve496 wrote:
I remember you - we played each other back in season 11. Welcome back!

Gee, thanks! So, not having played in a year and a half - what‘s the meta game these days? Still „go for FAV11“ and „when in doubt, take darklings“ and „why were giants and fakirs even printed“?
 
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James Wolfpacker
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I apologize for not keeping up with the TM Tour as I used to. I've been quite busy with a lot of other projects...

Based on my discussions regarding physical products, I would seriously recommend that the season after this one, Season 30, start using Map Balanced VPs.
 
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Brian Hawaiian
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JamesWolfpacker wrote:
I apologize for not keeping up with the TM Tour as I used to. I've been quite busy with a lot of other projects...

Based on my discussions regarding physical products, I would seriously recommend that the season after this one, Season 30, start using Map Balanced VPs.


Still hesitant about those. Especially because Halflings are such a situational faction.
 
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Steve Haas
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Alpha-Omega wrote:

Gee, thanks! So, not having played in a year and a half - what‘s the meta game these days? Still „go for FAV11“ and „when in doubt, take darklings“ and „why were giants and fakirs even printed“?


I'd say that's still pretty much the orthodoxy, yes. I think the biggest change (at least in the upper divisions) over the past year or two is that Cultists are playing a larger role than they historically did. But outside the top couple of divisions there's still quite a bit of variety in what people are doing, so I'm not sure how noticeable that difference is.

I have been playing around with non-fav11 strategies a bit more over the past couple of seasons, and I'm starting to revise my opinion of fav11 a bit. Its still a very good option in the early game, but I think its less that its strictly stronger than the available alternatives and more that its more flexible than strategies without it. There are games where you can do as well or better taking fav7 or fav9 instead, but you have fewer options (and can thus be more easily disrupted) which such approaches. So fav11 is still the safe choice for maximizing your chance of winning, although it can be fun to try out the alternatives from time to time. (Shameless plug: I really enjoyed this game in the current season. I wasn't trying to avoid fav10 and fav11, but it just sorta worked out that way and still turned out to be a good result).

JamesWolfpacker wrote:
Based on my discussions regarding physical products, I would seriously recommend that the season after this one, Season 30, start using Map Balanced VPs.


I think the gains from doing so - assuming they exist, which I'm still not sure has been conclusively proven - are small enough as to not be worth the disruption to the tournament. There are some very interesting strategic evolutions occurring right now (like the end of engineers dominance in MEND), which I find far more interesting that flipping everything on its head and hoping for the best.

I won't speak for anyone else, but I'd most likely quit the tournament if it changed in this way.
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George Sprockitz
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JamesWolfpacker wrote:
I apologize for not keeping up with the TM Tour as I used to. I've been quite busy with a lot of other projects...

Based on my discussions regarding physical products, I would seriously recommend that the season after this one, Season 30, start using Map Balanced VPs.


Are these VP offsets considered finalized?

I do think the offsets make factions marginally more balanced, but looking at snellamn stats, 1000+, 4p, a few things stick out.

alchemists are too strong, 23-24 is probably a better number than 27.

halflings might be a point or two too high, though they are selected in a lower number of games than alchemists, so it doesn't seem as bad.

Darklings may still be a point or two too high, though this depends on the goal. The win rate seems good but to get average position more in line probably should take two more points away.

engineers, cultists are likely a point or two too weak.

Giants and Chaos Magicians (and Fakirs without expansion scoring) are still bad. I'd say Giants and CM's need about +3 points. Fakirs could use a +2 or so considering tournament setup but I think they are good overall. Frankly even a few more points won't likely help Giants/CM's as those are fragile faction (CM's you gotta stop early, but Giants can be thwarted fairly easily throughout the game)...so giving more points might just mean they get picked on more.

There are probably a few others with slight tweaks, but once you make the bigger tweaks that may shift the matchups which could make a bigger difference than just adjusting to get the score diff or avg finish to retroactively match a data set.

I didn't consider expansion factions here as those haven't been played as much (and would likely need considerable tweaking). Also the question remains is the goal to best tune for 4 player games with strong players...number of players makes the variance of a factions strength large enough that 1 number doesn't do it justice. CM's should have starting vp's of roughly 10 for 3p, 22 for 4p, and 26 for 5p.

I also agree with steve that seeing a strategy evolution that weakens engineers in mend is exciting...though I also like the thought of more new and interesting matchups where all 14 factions are viable D1 choices and we get ~12 factions in the average season. I think the point adjustments can at least bring the like colored factions in line with each other, which is the best we can hope for since vp variance based on matchup is going to dwarf the average vp delta.

The table below shows 1 standard deviations (based on the 14 base factions) for win percentage, position, and score difference. 2017vp for 1250+ has insufficient data to make any claims.


Standard Deviations WP Pos dSc
Original - Any Rating: 5.97 0.19 4.6
2017vp - Any Rating: 3.83 0.12 2.7

Original - 1000+: 6.55 0.23 4.6
2017vp - 1000+: 6.20 0.16 3.0

Original - 1250+: 9.45 0.34 5.8
 
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Robert
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One of the birth defects of the "trying to balance start VPs" is that they are the same for all player counts. E.g. the red factions do better in 3p games (CMs are the 2nd best 3p base game faction on the original map after Darklings!) than with 4p (regardless of original or modified start VPs). So when tweaking the start VPs for more balanced results in a 4p tournament setting, it's automatically going to make 3p less balanced.

Regarding further tweaking: so far I've seen no indication that such tweaking of the 2017 values is planned. Nor have I heard about plans to release some "official" variable start VPs for other maps than the original. So for tournament purposes the options are limited to either the "Original" or the "Original [2017 VP]" map.

The one thing I'd like about the tournament switching to the "Original [2017 VP]" map is that it will offer way more data points for better balancing (optimistically assuming that some day there will be "Original [2020 4p VP]" values ) , and will allow a new "fresh" meta to evolve. Also, with Alchemists almost assured to be in most games, pronouncing abbreviations for a new meta will be no problem (think "HAND" or "AHAD" or some such ).

All things considered, I still slightly lean towards sticking with the original map.
 
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James Wolfpacker
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There are discussions about making the 2017 vp values solid as well as making them flexible. A flexible idea for future printings would be to include sleeved Map VP cards and note that updates might be provided on the website to print, cut out, and tuck into the sleeve. Players with existing copies can use any of their personal card sleeves and print out a copy.

There are already map VPs for Original, F&I, Revised, and Loon's Lakes. Fjords map VPs might also have an initial setting if there is enough data.
 
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Ruben Schlüter
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I‘m wondering - was there ever a discussion about a „bridge-like“ approach that would be based on giving players identical games to play and see how they were faring compared to all other identical games?
I mean - raking in a high score with, say, darklings is maybe not really a feat. But finishing with 10 more points than the average would set you apart and show some level of superior skill (or worse opponents, alright, but this effect would even out quickly).
 
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Anders Füchtbauer
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Alpha-Omega wrote:
I‘m wondering - was there ever a discussion about a „bridge-like“ approach that would be based on giving players identical games to play and see how they were faring compared to all other identical games?
I mean - raking in a high score with, say, darklings is maybe not really a feat. But finishing with 10 more points than the average would set you apart and show some level of superior skill (or worse opponents, alright, but this effect would even out quickly).


The most recent discussion on such a tournament can be found here, but it did not gain so much traction with the community...

https://boardgamegeek.com/thread/2061966/terra-mystica-tourn...
 
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Robert
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JamesWolfpacker wrote:
There are already map VPs for Original, F&I, Revised, and Loon's Lakes.
Where do I find these?
 
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James B
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DocCool wrote:
JamesWolfpacker wrote:
There are already map VPs for Original, F&I, Revised, and Loon's Lakes.
Where do I find these?

https://boardgamegeek.com/article/28874290#28874290 this is the only place they are listed to my knowledge.
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Robert
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Jamesb8 wrote:
DocCool wrote:
JamesWolfpacker wrote:
There are already map VPs for Original, F&I, Revised, and Loon's Lakes.
Where do I find these?

https://boardgamegeek.com/article/28874290#28874290 this is the only place they are listed to my knowledge.
While I greatly appreciate the work of extracting these values, I was looking for something official - i.e. I had hoped that I just missed some official announcement by the authors or Feuerland here on BGG or on their website or wherever. But I guess Frank's reply to finalize them "soon" (note: there's no promise of publishing them soon ) answers my question: the official statement is yet to come.

Regarding the values scraped from the app nine months ago: for all I know Digidiced may have changed them several times since. whistle

 
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James Wolfpacker
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DocCool wrote:

Regarding the values scraped from the app nine months ago: for all I know Digidiced may have changed them several times since. whistle


They are the same values. DIGIDICED gets the values from the publisher.
 
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Robert
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Season 29 has 796 players in 113 leagues, that's 32 less players than the 828 last season, where they formed 118 leagues.
 
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