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Subject: Random Roles Discworld 17er 3 rss

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Scott
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
Also I'm about 70% likely to just decide that ortho is good and go with that until the end of the game.

He supported me on the Jedit lynch in a way that made sense to me(which could be because he knew Jedit was good and didn't mind it for that reason) but seemed genuine throughout to me and as far as I can tell has been honest about his role and actions in the game.

So you are allowed to just decide ortho is good but when I do the same thing for you it makes me suspicious? I am not going to waste time considering you may be evil when it is obvious you are good. I have said multiple times I will bet the game on you being good. See that as you will.

That's a fair comment, even though I do think the situations are different, I don't think anyone ever becomes "drops off my reads list good" unless they are an actual clear. But still, I get what you're saying.
 
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How was the Reptile Expo? I am so jealous.
 
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Scott
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Rhanddom wrote:
How was the Reptile Expo? I am so jealous.

<- fear

I think it's awesome that she went though. But yeah I'd be terrified, lol
 
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Kelci
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Rhanddom wrote:
Reading dejo is just a total fountain of WIFOM but I don't think she was confident that kuchick was not a fellow evil bussing her (knowingly or unknowingly). She's actually remarkably sanguine about kuchick having a hit on her.

Right now my feelings about ortho shooting Jedit are tainted by hindsight. The worlds where Jedit is evil are seriously corner-case worlds at this point. Dubs and kuchick have to both be evil, or kuchick hit the 10% case, or something about Dubs's targets being Nobbied; I don't think Ponder can be Nobbied? Or maybe it can, given that it seems that it can be foiled by Nanny Ogg, unless that's a lie. My brain hurts when I think about the mod having to resolve a Nobbied Ponder by evaluating whether the shifted target's PoV knowledge makes the original target's statement true, false, or indeterminate. gulp

But we didn't have kuchick's view last night, plus there were still some kooky worlds where Jedit was actually Moist? I don't know, I wasn't paying much attention to the more elaborate role-swap hypotheses. So there's that, plus the fact that dejo self-voted there at the end, plus the fact that Aumerle (gestalt probably-good on tone/effort, though I dread the labor of ISOing him to reassess that) nightfalled on Jedit and yet he wasn't lynched.

Even so, I would have just shot Dubs and been done with it. As of last night I was pretty darn happy with how buying into kuchick's world was working out for us, and would have doubled down. Ortho, I have to try to get into your head to really judge that, and the sheer volume of analysis you've generated makes that hard. Why shouldn't I just color you red in VoteViewer and proceed accordingly?

Thought: If we were in the ortho Wolf Moist Von Lipwig & Tanner Wolf Leonard of Quirm world, then I think evil would be pushing for a DMD lynch today given that kuchick is giving a Jedit good narrative. I think their claim would have been that ortho fired his Gonne at DUBS, but DMD must have moved his target down 2. Unless Evil is exactly {kuchick, ortho, Tanner, DMD}, but I think they would have figured that out and nightfall voted me by now. Otherwise maybe DMD is good but they have not pushed a DMD lynch because there are only 3 evils left and kuchick is an Aux and they were not able to coordinate. That would explain how ortho could be evil but kuchick could express genuine frustration with him. That could be an Aux saying: "Why didn't you claim to fire your Gonne at DUBS so we could frame DMD today?!"
 
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Every day I wake up alive, I ask myself: Why has Irina not chatted with me yet? She has said she thinks I am good all game. Yet still no chat. Doesn't anyone love the Skipper???

 
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Jedit wrote:
If Felice dropped breadcrumbs then she must have dropped them before taking her action, because she "leaned good" on me on D1 and Irina on D2. And people should have been thinking about that, because if they were breadcrumbs it meant that when the N1 kill was prevented I would have been the target.

Holy halibut that actually makes a lot of sense.
 
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Scott
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Every day I wake up alive, I ask myself: Why has Irina not chatted with me yet? She has said she thinks I am good all game. Yet still no chat. Doesn't anyone love the Skipper???


I don't have written down Irina's chat partner since Lemon, I think that's yesterday and today, did we ever get who she chatted w/ yesterday?

I don't consider this super vital info or anything but it's a little interesting that it just sort of got forgotten about.
 
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whirlingdervish wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
I still don't know what to make of the [no kill] on N1. It was suggested that Irina was bodyguard protected by Felice, on the basis of reads posted by Felice. Why would Irina have been the NK target?

I personally thought Irina's defense of Lemon sounded like a Seer clear, and it was blatant enough that I had the impression several other people thought that - it wouldn't surprise me at all if Felice protected Irina.

I think the biggest argument toward a hidden tough!evil is Raven's Rob Anybody claim. I kind of wonder if it mightn't be DUBS, at this point.

[vote Whirling]
 
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Rhanddom wrote:
I mean, sure, there's the potential for a Ponder Stibbons, but they'd check an "I am good" statement, not the Quirm invention set. Simple lies are the best lies, and I have a hard time believing an evil Ortho would lie about his vig target unless he got something big out of doing that. Unless it's some sort of communications foul-up? The real Leonard is in maxchat with Ortho, and they didn't realize it would cost them a night to pass the Gonne? And they decided to do it anyway and claim "dunno, witch block or Bursar or something"? That makes sense if they feared a stalker/witness or just general blowback from a misvig, and really wanted Ortho to be the one doing the wet work. Because he's actually Tough, or Brutal, or because there's a second invention under construction? That's a classic simple lie, claiming your wad is shot when you still have something up your sleeve.

@ Kowalski: We are mind-melding! High One!

 
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Aumerle wrote:
Okay I'm going to admit something right now, I was fully intending to vote Rhand today pretty hardcore.

He's been a lot more distant from the game than I'd expect and usually I see him doing a lot of "Aumerle you're an aux and here's 3 posts of exactly why!" then fast forward 30 mins later to "Dubs YOU'RE the aux and here's exactly why!", rinse, repeat.. I could point to posts in both the Cubs and Seers game (that game where we made it to the last day with Paper, Felice and Dake - and Dake was the evil) or the No Reveal (where I was the evil and threw shade at you but you were doing what I described as good).

However, I really like what he's been putting down today and I'm tempted to back off that tunnel.

@Rhand, it would be very helpful to me if you could give a short take on the remaining players, it might help me get there and/or get a better vibe on your mindset in the game. I'm not asking you to come up with a comprehensive essay, just a brief thought, if you don't mind.

Agree
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 5 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13)
Irina_Phoenix - 1 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
kuchick - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
DMDupree - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:30 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 1 - Irina_Phoenix(12)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 6 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 3 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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Kelci
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Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
So as mentioned I think for me this will come down to deciding whether to trust Dubs or hedge my bets.

If Dubs is evil then she's probably an aux and I suspect one or both of ortho and Jedit are max evil. Although even that is unknown because if she's an aux she might not be informed. That said, I don't get a fake claim there if she's just going to clear 3 actual good players.

If Dubs is good then kuchick is probably the pick, based on her view either kuchick or Irina would have to be evil, I don't see any other way her vote could be messed with without being completely blocked.

I have a hard time believing that evil would let Dubs live AND let her view go through unimpeded though. Although I do think that's possible if they are so close to winning that it doesn't matter and they just wanted to cause a bunch of uncertainty on the last day, knowing we'd probably not believe her anyway.

Going to review more posts, either later tonight or tomorrow.

Aumerle, I know what it looks like. And from your perspective, I can see why it seems incredulous that I can be good given that I am alive. The only explanation I can think of is that at least 1 of {Rob, ortho, Jedit} is evil and that Dejo is possibly also evil. Because Evil having 2 Witches explains Good having 2 Seers.

Analysis:

At least 1 evil in {Rob, ortho, Jedit}. Rob & ortho not Wolves together given how they have interacted all game. I think at least 1 of them specifically has to be evil though. Their exchange has not felt like good / good. And I think if Rob is evil, then so is Jedit. So we have either {Rob, Jedit} or {ortho} dichotomy. And then Tanner would have to be evil in either of these cases. So definitely {Tanner}.

At least 1 evil in {Irina, Rhand}. It felt like they went out of their way to get Samool lynched. I had been assuming that is because they were saving Rob, but I actually do not think that makes sense any more. In fact I think it would have to be the opposite. I think it is possible that if Rob is good, there was a lot of orchestrated maneuvers yesterday to make it look like Rob was saved, but in fact Evil worked hard to keep him alive so as not to let us see him flip good. I already read Irina evil and I think I have been overlooking Rhand too much because I do not want him to be evil.

Unless Rob moved my view, kuchick is evil.

If ortho is good, then Dejo is probably evil.

If Paper is evil, then he is probably protecting Wolf Jedit.

I think Team Evil is 1 of these:

{Rob, Jedit, Tanner, Paper, Dejo}

{kuchick, ortho, Tanner, Rhand, Irina}

In either case, I think Tanner has to be evil.

So I was looking back to see where Dubs decided that Tanner had to be the lynch yesterday and found this post.

I just spent the last 10 mins trying to comprehend.

It reads to me like Tanner is just being slotted in.. because?

If there's a why to the part I bolded, please explain.

Also, why couldn't Tanner be Rhand for example? I don't see why Rhand couldn't be in either group as well.

I have clears on ortho & Jedit.

We know now that Jedit is Mr. Slant. So either he is good or he is evil and DMD is also evil and moved my view N1. (evil Jedit ---> evil DMD)

ortho can only be evil if he is Wolf Moist Von Lipwig who coordinated a role swap with Tanner Wolf Leonard of Quirm. (evil ortho ---> evil Tanner)

Yesterday I did not know Jedit was Mr. Slant. So I thought he could also possibly be Wolf Moist Von Lipwig to explain my clear on him, which would also mean evil Tanner. These worlds would been weird though, because they mean the Wolves kept me alive despite my clearing 3 people who it would be reasonable for me to clear because of Moist Von Lipwig shenanigans, so like Tanner said, they would have no reason to think I was their Aux. However, there are other reasons they could have kept me alive that I have already talked about, chiefly that they already planned to "counter" me in the form of kuchick Ponder Stibbons and because they (correctly) assumed no one would believe me after kuchick claimed.
 
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Scott
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Jedit wrote:
If Felice dropped breadcrumbs then she must have dropped them before taking her action, because she "leaned good" on me on D1 and Irina on D2. And people should have been thinking about that, because if they were breadcrumbs it meant that when the N1 kill was prevented I would have been the target.

Holy halibut that actually makes a lot of sense.

Oh I see, so Jedit would have been the N1 protect and Irina would have been the N2 protect (if Felice had lived to protect)?

Okay, I can buy that as a real possibility, especially considering the posts are exactly the same in format.

However I'm looking at the times and the Jedit post was at 10:46am the day of - I can see that as a reasonable time to decide on a general person to protect unless someone claims seer at the last minute or something.

But the Irina post was at 8:57pm - that night, so still like 16ish hours until dusk?, now it's true that she only posted twice after that but that seems really early to make a decision on a protect, especially without Irina having claimed anything, a lot can change in that amount of time especially past D1. But if Felice decided that the way she was going to play the BG was just to call her protects like that and then just chill and hope to make it a few days, then maybe.

I still agree that Jedit may have come up with something there because it does kind of fit.
 
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Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
1. Still does not work because ortho cannot be evil Leonard of Quirm. So ortho would be evil Moist Von Lipwig and the Wolves passed the Gonne N3 for some other reason.

ortho could be Wolf Moist Von Lipwig with Wolf Leonard of Quirm and the Wolves passed the Gonne N3 from Leonard of Quirm to ortho

It's a possibility, but would it not also require them to expect Dejo to block Ortho? If Dejo doesn't block Ortho then he has no excuse not to use the Gonne.

The Wolves were uninformed of Dejo being their Aux, so maybe they thought she was good and saw this as an opportunity to frame her while also avoiding any witness.
 
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Rhanddom wrote:
I think an evil Nobby would have shifted a good Ortho's shot down by two, given enough PoV knowledge to be confident of Ortho's goodness. Unless, I suppose, Rorab's aux and didn't want to be responsible for shifting a shot on probable fellow aux Dubs down to possible max Jedit? And I think an evil Ortho would have held back on claiming what exactly he had done, and (given kuchick's view on Jedit) claimed that he shot at Dubs and got Nobbied down to Jedit. Maybe not if he's max, though, especially if he's max with Rorab. I have to give this more thought, but I feel like there ought to be some combinations we can rule out there.

Ortho, did it occur to you that a shot at Jedit might get Nobbied onto kuchick or yourself? (Or, for that matter, Dubs or Irina?)

High One again!

 
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Aumerle wrote:
Dubs votes kuchick to start up the alternate train because maybe dubs thinks there could be an aux and isn't 100% sure? I don't know that vote is strange to me coming like it's going to be part of an LHLV counter train on kuchick but nobody else votes there. If Dubs is a max then wouldn't wolves have coordinated who to vote in wolf chat? If Dubs is an aux wouldn't she vote herself? Maybe that's the thing, they wanted dubs to vote herself, she didn't because she wasn't quite ready to give away the game. The more I think about it, I think there's an aux that's not on the same page with the wolves right now. That feels right with what happened here. The thing for me is I think I'd pick Dubs as that aux if I had to guess right now, so it doesn't help in terms of getting a vote on a wolf as soon as possible in the case that LHLV is still a thing.

The Hell? I voted kuchick at dawn because I know she is evil!

Aumerle, you keep saying you are considering all possibilities, but it does not feel like you are actually considering that I may be good here. In which case, I do not have an agenda. I am legitimately trying to solve this game. My vote on kuchick at dawn was literally the only vote that makes sense for me to make there.
 
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Rhanddom wrote:


I bet she likes long walks at sunset on very, very cold beaches.

Spoiler (click to reveal)
Yes she does, and the best part is: No frozen penguin nipples!
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Rhanddom wrote:
How was the Reptile Expo? I am so jealous.

OMG it was awesome.

So I have been to like 7 or 8 Reptile Expos by now (I am a Fanilow), and the Portland Reptile Expo is definitely the best. I held 5 bearded dragons (LOVE THOSE BEARDIES), held 2 kittens, held a duckling, petted a crested gecko (so velvety!), petted a python (so smooth!), saw like 56,000 ball pythons, saw a 15" axolotl, saw tons of frogs, bonded with Julius Squeezer the Brazilian Rainbow Boa, saw a black mamba (venomoid). I have a pet panther chameleon Morpheus who is 5 who I bought from the Expo several years ago, and his breeder was at the show, so I talked to him and saw some of their new babies. Morpheus used to be so tiny! Now he is a big crazy old man chameleon and I love him.
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Scott
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
So as mentioned I think for me this will come down to deciding whether to trust Dubs or hedge my bets.

If Dubs is evil then she's probably an aux and I suspect one or both of ortho and Jedit are max evil. Although even that is unknown because if she's an aux she might not be informed. That said, I don't get a fake claim there if she's just going to clear 3 actual good players.

If Dubs is good then kuchick is probably the pick, based on her view either kuchick or Irina would have to be evil, I don't see any other way her vote could be messed with without being completely blocked.

I have a hard time believing that evil would let Dubs live AND let her view go through unimpeded though. Although I do think that's possible if they are so close to winning that it doesn't matter and they just wanted to cause a bunch of uncertainty on the last day, knowing we'd probably not believe her anyway.

Going to review more posts, either later tonight or tomorrow.

Aumerle, I know what it looks like. And from your perspective, I can see why it seems incredulous that I can be good given that I am alive. The only explanation I can think of is that at least 1 of {Rob, ortho, Jedit} is evil and that Dejo is possibly also evil. Because Evil having 2 Witches explains Good having 2 Seers.

Analysis:

At least 1 evil in {Rob, ortho, Jedit}. Rob & ortho not Wolves together given how they have interacted all game. I think at least 1 of them specifically has to be evil though. Their exchange has not felt like good / good. And I think if Rob is evil, then so is Jedit. So we have either {Rob, Jedit} or {ortho} dichotomy. And then Tanner would have to be evil in either of these cases. So definitely {Tanner}.

At least 1 evil in {Irina, Rhand}. It felt like they went out of their way to get Samool lynched. I had been assuming that is because they were saving Rob, but I actually do not think that makes sense any more. In fact I think it would have to be the opposite. I think it is possible that if Rob is good, there was a lot of orchestrated maneuvers yesterday to make it look like Rob was saved, but in fact Evil worked hard to keep him alive so as not to let us see him flip good. I already read Irina evil and I think I have been overlooking Rhand too much because I do not want him to be evil.

Unless Rob moved my view, kuchick is evil.

If ortho is good, then Dejo is probably evil.

If Paper is evil, then he is probably protecting Wolf Jedit.

I think Team Evil is 1 of these:

{Rob, Jedit, Tanner, Paper, Dejo}

{kuchick, ortho, Tanner, Rhand, Irina}

In either case, I think Tanner has to be evil.

So I was looking back to see where Dubs decided that Tanner had to be the lynch yesterday and found this post.

I just spent the last 10 mins trying to comprehend.

It reads to me like Tanner is just being slotted in.. because?

If there's a why to the part I bolded, please explain.

Also, why couldn't Tanner be Rhand for example? I don't see why Rhand couldn't be in either group as well.

I have clears on ortho & Jedit.

We know now that Jedit is Mr. Slant. So either he is good or he is evil and DMD is also evil and moved my view N1. (evil Jedit ---> evil DMD)

ortho can only be evil if he is Wolf Moist Von Lipwig who coordinated a role swap with Tanner Wolf Leonard of Quirm. (evil ortho ---> evil Tanner)

Yesterday I did not know Jedit was Mr. Slant. So I thought he could also possibly be Wolf Moist Von Lipwig to explain my clear on him, which would also mean evil Tanner. These worlds would been weird though, because they mean the Wolves kept me alive despite my clearing 3 people who it would be reasonable for me to clear because of Moist Von Lipwig shenanigans, so like Tanner said, they would have no reason to think I was their Aux. However, there are other reasons they could have kept me alive that I have already talked about, chiefly that they already planned to "counter" me in the form of kuchick Ponder Stibbons and because they (correctly) assumed no one would believe me after kuchick claimed.

Okay, check.

But your final argument in that post is that Tanner must be the lynch because he's in all groups. My final question is why couldn't Rhand be in both groups, or kuchick?

Group 1, in your world if Jedit is evil then Rob has to be evil, okay. Why does Tanner even have to be there in that case, he could be good Moist if Rob moved your view on Jedit. That first evil group could just as easily have been something like {Rob, Jedit, Rhand, kuchick, Irina} couldn't it? In fact in the first part of your post you say at least one evil in Irina, Rhand and yet you include neither in your first group. I would have thought slotting one of them in would make more sense based on your own logic, unless you can explain to me how a specific group of {Rob, Jedit, Tanner, Paper, Dejo} had to be the case, I don't see it. It feels like those 2 groups were just set up so that you'd have a reason for Tanner.

To be clear I still think Tanner could be evil with dubs, Rincewind or maybe even Rob Anybody with a tough, if the gamestate is close enough that a mislynch tips it over for evil, I don't think he's a good lynch right now regardless.
 
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Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Every day I wake up alive, I ask myself: Why has Irina not chatted with me yet? She has said she thinks I am good all game. Yet still no chat. Doesn't anyone love the Skipper???


I don't have written down Irina's chat partner since Lemon, I think that's yesterday and today, did we ever get who she chatted w/ yesterday?

I don't consider this super vital info or anything but it's a little interesting that it just sort of got forgotten about.

See, I would never forget about a chat, so forgetting about a chat seems weird, but to each their own.

Also, I do feel very sad about my Paper view. (HA! PAY-PER-VIEW!) He seemed super Auxy and I did not think he would be the night kill. And I thought having a view on him could help us learn more about whether his read on Jedit was legit in the event that Jedit was either still alive or dead and was truly Mr. Slant. In retrospect, I should have viewed Rob or Rhand, but EOD I thought Jedit was evil and lying about being Mr. Slant, so Paper was who I viewed because of his Jedit defense.
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
Dubs votes kuchick to start up the alternate train because maybe dubs thinks there could be an aux and isn't 100% sure? I don't know that vote is strange to me coming like it's going to be part of an LHLV counter train on kuchick but nobody else votes there. If Dubs is a max then wouldn't wolves have coordinated who to vote in wolf chat? If Dubs is an aux wouldn't she vote herself? Maybe that's the thing, they wanted dubs to vote herself, she didn't because she wasn't quite ready to give away the game. The more I think about it, I think there's an aux that's not on the same page with the wolves right now. That feels right with what happened here. The thing for me is I think I'd pick Dubs as that aux if I had to guess right now, so it doesn't help in terms of getting a vote on a wolf as soon as possible in the case that LHLV is still a thing.

The Hell? I voted kuchick at dawn because I know she is evil!

Aumerle, you keep saying you are considering all possibilities, but it does not feel like you are actually considering that I may be good here. In which case, I do not have an agenda. I am legitimately trying to solve this game. My vote on kuchick at dawn was literally the only vote that makes sense for me to make there.

The reason it feels like an attempt at an LHLV is because that vote came within 2 minutes of dawn.

I am considering all possibilities.
 
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Scott
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“Good-bye and hello, as always.”
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“I saw my earlier selves as different people, acquaintances I had outgrown. I wondered how I could ever have been some of them.” ― Roger Zelazny, The Courts of Chaos
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Anyway I don't think continuing to post right now is going to be productive because if the only content is from a couple specific people then I'm just going to focus on those couple of specific people.

So I'm going to take a break. Hope everyone's having a good weekend.
 
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Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
So as mentioned I think for me this will come down to deciding whether to trust Dubs or hedge my bets.

If Dubs is evil then she's probably an aux and I suspect one or both of ortho and Jedit are max evil. Although even that is unknown because if she's an aux she might not be informed. That said, I don't get a fake claim there if she's just going to clear 3 actual good players.

If Dubs is good then kuchick is probably the pick, based on her view either kuchick or Irina would have to be evil, I don't see any other way her vote could be messed with without being completely blocked.

I have a hard time believing that evil would let Dubs live AND let her view go through unimpeded though. Although I do think that's possible if they are so close to winning that it doesn't matter and they just wanted to cause a bunch of uncertainty on the last day, knowing we'd probably not believe her anyway.

Going to review more posts, either later tonight or tomorrow.

Aumerle, I know what it looks like. And from your perspective, I can see why it seems incredulous that I can be good given that I am alive. The only explanation I can think of is that at least 1 of {Rob, ortho, Jedit} is evil and that Dejo is possibly also evil. Because Evil having 2 Witches explains Good having 2 Seers.

Analysis:

At least 1 evil in {Rob, ortho, Jedit}. Rob & ortho not Wolves together given how they have interacted all game. I think at least 1 of them specifically has to be evil though. Their exchange has not felt like good / good. And I think if Rob is evil, then so is Jedit. So we have either {Rob, Jedit} or {ortho} dichotomy. And then Tanner would have to be evil in either of these cases. So definitely {Tanner}.

At least 1 evil in {Irina, Rhand}. It felt like they went out of their way to get Samool lynched. I had been assuming that is because they were saving Rob, but I actually do not think that makes sense any more. In fact I think it would have to be the opposite. I think it is possible that if Rob is good, there was a lot of orchestrated maneuvers yesterday to make it look like Rob was saved, but in fact Evil worked hard to keep him alive so as not to let us see him flip good. I already read Irina evil and I think I have been overlooking Rhand too much because I do not want him to be evil.

Unless Rob moved my view, kuchick is evil.

If ortho is good, then Dejo is probably evil.

If Paper is evil, then he is probably protecting Wolf Jedit.

I think Team Evil is 1 of these:

{Rob, Jedit, Tanner, Paper, Dejo}

{kuchick, ortho, Tanner, Rhand, Irina}

In either case, I think Tanner has to be evil.

So I was looking back to see where Dubs decided that Tanner had to be the lynch yesterday and found this post.

I just spent the last 10 mins trying to comprehend.

It reads to me like Tanner is just being slotted in.. because?

If there's a why to the part I bolded, please explain.

Also, why couldn't Tanner be Rhand for example? I don't see why Rhand couldn't be in either group as well.

I have clears on ortho & Jedit.

We know now that Jedit is Mr. Slant. So either he is good or he is evil and DMD is also evil and moved my view N1. (evil Jedit ---> evil DMD)

ortho can only be evil if he is Wolf Moist Von Lipwig who coordinated a role swap with Tanner Wolf Leonard of Quirm. (evil ortho ---> evil Tanner)

Yesterday I did not know Jedit was Mr. Slant. So I thought he could also possibly be Wolf Moist Von Lipwig to explain my clear on him, which would also mean evil Tanner. These worlds would been weird though, because they mean the Wolves kept me alive despite my clearing 3 people who it would be reasonable for me to clear because of Moist Von Lipwig shenanigans, so like Tanner said, they would have no reason to think I was their Aux. However, there are other reasons they could have kept me alive that I have already talked about, chiefly that they already planned to "counter" me in the form of kuchick Ponder Stibbons and because they (correctly) assumed no one would believe me after kuchick claimed.

Okay, check.

But your final argument in that post is that Tanner must be the lynch because he's in all groups. My final question is why couldn't Rhand be in both groups, or kuchick?

Group 1, in your world if Jedit is evil then Rob has to be evil, okay. Why does Tanner even have to be there in that case, he could be good Moist if Rob moved your view on Jedit. That first evil group could just as easily have been something like {Rob, Jedit, Rhand, kuchick, Irina} couldn't it? In fact in the first part of your post you say at least one evil in Irina, Rhand and yet you include neither in your first group. I would have thought slotting one of them in would make more sense based on your own logic, unless you can explain to me how a specific group of {Rob, Jedit, Tanner, Paper, Dejo} had to be the case, I don't see it. It feels like those 2 groups were just set up so that you'd have a reason for Tanner.

To be clear I still think Tanner could be evil with dubs, Rincewind or maybe even Rob Anybody with a tough, if the gamestate is close enough that a mislynch tips it over for evil, I don't think he's a good lynch right now regardless.

I was focusing very much on the Wolf Moist Von Lipwig role swap possibility yesterday because of just having learned about it, together with an evil read on Tanner for similar reasons to what you stated, so I think I was biased in how I was looking at Tanner and tunneling on him. I do think he could be evil, but I agree he is not necessarily evil.

Going to dinner. Since we are concerned about LHLV, I will return my vote to the only person I know is evil:

[vote kuchick]
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 5 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13)
Irina_Phoenix - 1 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(15)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
whirlingdervish - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
DMDupree - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:30 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 1 - Irina_Phoenix(12)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 7 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14), kuchick(15)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 3 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Every day I wake up alive, I ask myself: Why has Irina not chatted with me yet? She has said she thinks I am good all game. Yet still no chat. Doesn't anyone love the Skipper???


I don't have written down Irina's chat partner since Lemon, I think that's yesterday and today, did we ever get who she chatted w/ yesterday?

I don't consider this super vital info or anything but it's a little interesting that it just sort of got forgotten about.

See, I would never forget about a chat, so forgetting about a chat seems weird, but to each their own.

Also, I do feel very sad about my Paper view. (HA! PAY-PER-VIEW!) He seemed super Auxy and I did not think he would be the night kill. And I thought having a view on him could help us learn more about whether his read on Jedit was legit in the event that Jedit was either still alive or dead and was truly Mr. Slant. In retrospect, I should have viewed Rob or Rhand, but EOD I thought Jedit was evil and lying about being Mr. Slant, so Paper was who I viewed because of his Jedit defense.

laugh laugh laugh
 
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