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Subject: Random Roles Discworld 17er 3 rss

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Lucky Me, Lucky Mud
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I just got back from the evening's activities (birthday dinner for a friend). I'm looking forward to actually matching velocities with you at some point, Skipper.

Hey Tanner, what up? How should I feel about you on a Saturday night?
 
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Kelci
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
How was the Reptile Expo? I am so jealous.

OMG it was awesome.

So I have been to like 7 or 8 Reptile Expos by now (I am a Fanilow), and the Portland Reptile Expo is definitely the best. I held 5 bearded dragons (LOVE THOSE BEARDIES), held 2 kittens, held a duckling, petted a crested gecko (so velvety!), petted a python (so smooth!), saw like 56,000 ball pythons, saw a 15" axolotl, saw tons of frogs, bonded with Julius Squeezer the Brazilian Rainbow Boa, saw a black mamba (venomoid). I have a pet panther chameleon Morpheus who is 5 who I bought from the Expo several years ago, and his breeder was at the show, so I talked to him and saw some of their new babies. Morpheus used to be so tiny! Now he is a big crazy old man chameleon and I love him.

There were also tons of tegus, tarantulas, scorpions, and beetles. Also some Living Terrariums, which are basically bioactive terrariums that are good for reptiles and amphibians.
 
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Rhanddom wrote:
I just got back from the evening's activities (birthday dinner for a friend). I'm looking forward to actually matching velocities with you at some point, Skipper.

Hey Tanner, what up? How should I feel about you on a Saturday night?



 
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Rhanddom wrote:
I just got back from the evening's activities (birthday dinner for a friend). I'm looking forward to actually matching velocities with you at some point, Skipper.

Hey Tanner, what up? How should I feel about you on a Saturday night?

That I'm good, and 99% of the shade thrown my way has to do with convoluted conjecture.
 
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Kelci
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Here 170 miles ahead in lynch lead like:

 
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Evils: {Raven, Dejo, kuchick}

Possible Evil Worlds:

Jedit Good: 5 total evils, otherwise Evil would have nightfall voted me already

{Irina, Rhand}
{Irina, DMD}
{Irina, Tanner}
{ortho, Tanner}
{Rhand, DMD}
{Rhand, Tanner}
{DMD, Tanner}

Jedit Evil: 6 total evils, DMD necessarily evil

{Jedit, DMD, Irina}
{Jedit, DMD, Rhand}
{Jedit, DMD, Tanner}

Irina: 4
Jedit: 3
ortho: 1
Rhand: 4
DMD: 6
Tanner: 5

[vote DMDupree]
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 5 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13)
Irina_Phoenix - 1 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(16)
kuchick - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(15)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
whirlingdervish - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:30 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 1 - Irina_Phoenix(12)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 8 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14), kuchick(15), DMDupree(16)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 3 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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whirlingdervish wrote:
If I assume:

- 6 evils out of 17 players
- good!kuchick
- evil!DUBS

I come out with:

Whirling, kuchick, Ortho, Rhanddom

DUBS, Irina, Aumerle, Rorab/Dupree

I think. It's where I'm starting, at least.

Edit: formatting

whirlingdervish wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
I still don't know what to make of the [no kill] on N1. It was suggested that Irina was bodyguard protected by Felice, on the basis of reads posted by Felice. Why would Irina have been the NK target?

I personally thought Irina's defense of Lemon sounded like a Seer clear, and it was blatant enough that I had the impression several other people thought that - it wouldn't surprise me at all if Felice protected Irina.

I think the biggest argument toward a hidden tough!evil is Raven's Rob Anybody claim. I kind of wonder if it mightn't be DUBS, at this point.

Do you think Irina is good or evil?
 
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Irina_Phoenix wrote:
IM lost.

HMU over the weekend.

I'm not going to say the thing about being Good bc I decided to sometimes not do that.

Is there a way we are mechanically knowing DUBS is evil? I'll catch up later.

Sorry.


I think Irina could be good because of this statement. She is not playing along with kuchick's evil scheme. And it is super easy for evils to just say "I am good" today to make themselves look good for cooperating with the believed Seer when in fact they know kuchick is evil so they are not actually in danger of being checked and we may be at must lynch anyway.
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
whirlingdervish wrote:
If I assume:

- 6 evils out of 17 players
- good!kuchick
- evil!DUBS

I come out with:

Whirling, kuchick, Ortho, Rhanddom

DUBS, Irina, Aumerle, Rorab/Dupree

I think. It's where I'm starting, at least.

Edit: formatting

whirlingdervish wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
I still don't know what to make of the [no kill] on N1. It was suggested that Irina was bodyguard protected by Felice, on the basis of reads posted by Felice. Why would Irina have been the NK target?

I personally thought Irina's defense of Lemon sounded like a Seer clear, and it was blatant enough that I had the impression several other people thought that - it wouldn't surprise me at all if Felice protected Irina.

I think the biggest argument toward a hidden tough!evil is Raven's Rob Anybody claim. I kind of wonder if it mightn't be DUBS, at this point.

Do you think Irina is good or evil?

I think Irina is evil. Felice protecting Irina N1 doesn't mean Irina is good - she could easily be an aux.
 
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whirlingdervish wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
I just got back from the evening's activities (birthday dinner for a friend). I'm looking forward to actually matching velocities with you at some point, Skipper.

Hey Tanner, what up? How should I feel about you on a Saturday night?

That I'm good, and 99% of the shade thrown my way has to do with convoluted conjecture.
You being what you've said you are from the beginning is certainly the simplest explanation. I'm up to Friday morning in your ISO and it's really pretty unexceptionable stuff. Pity about the mislynches but you don't really seem to have been driving them.
 
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whirlingdervish wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
whirlingdervish wrote:
If I assume:

- 6 evils out of 17 players
- good!kuchick
- evil!DUBS

I come out with:

Whirling, kuchick, Ortho, Rhanddom

DUBS, Irina, Aumerle, Rorab/Dupree

I think. It's where I'm starting, at least.

Edit: formatting

whirlingdervish wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
I still don't know what to make of the [no kill] on N1. It was suggested that Irina was bodyguard protected by Felice, on the basis of reads posted by Felice. Why would Irina have been the NK target?

I personally thought Irina's defense of Lemon sounded like a Seer clear, and it was blatant enough that I had the impression several other people thought that - it wouldn't surprise me at all if Felice protected Irina.

I think the biggest argument toward a hidden tough!evil is Raven's Rob Anybody claim. I kind of wonder if it mightn't be DUBS, at this point.

Do you think Irina is good or evil?

I think Irina is evil. Felice protecting Irina N1 doesn't mean Irina is good - she could easily be an aux.

What do you think about what Jedit said about Felice protecting him N1? I think that might actually be what happened. It makes sense given that Felice said she leaned good on him D1. Today I am thinking Jedit is good, independent of the Felice statement, because he still sounds like he is trying to solve the game and is bringing up good points. In which case I am confused why Evil is not saying Jedit was evil. They want us to know he was good, hence kuchick's claim. I think this may be an ortho frame job. The Wolves want ortho to look evil for shooting good Jedit and they killed Paper because he would be all but cleared by a claim of good Jedit.
 
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If this is an ortho frame job, then I think Tanner is less likely a Wolf. He knows (because I went on about it all yesterday) from my perspective ortho Wolf ---> Tanner Wolf. Maybe that does not factor into the Wolves thinking much if they think they can just get a mislynch on me or ortho today though. But if we have good Jedit and good ortho, then there are 2 evils within {Irina, Rhand, DMD, Tanner}. I thought Rhand was suspicious all game, but today he sounds great and I think he has just had RL obligations that have kept him away. Irina I thought was evil early, then I gave her lots of credit because I assumed Felice protected her, but like Tanner says she could be an Aux. I like Irina refusing to claim today, but I could also see her just being a frustrated Wolf. Her not using her power makes me sad regardless of her alignment.

Of those 4 people, I still think DMD is most likely Wolf. She sounds good today, but while I saw frustration from Rob like everyone talks about, it was NAI. His Lemon tunnel and his insistence on evil ortho were his main reads (aside from Dejo who he was correct about). I think we are in a weird case where it is not even evils protecting Rob, but goods like Aumerle who just have a good read from his frustration posts. I think DMD is doing a great job offering her reads here if she is good and contributing, but I think there is a high probability she replaced into an evil role and has been trying not to make waves until called upon today when the game did not end to engage more. Sorry DMD if you are good, but I have an evil read on you based on Rob's play.
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
If this is an ortho frame job, then I think Tanner is less likely a Wolf. He knows (because I went on about it all yesterday) from my perspective ortho Wolf ---> Tanner Wolf. Maybe that does not factor into the Wolves thinking much if they think they can just get a mislynch on me or ortho today though. But if we have good Jedit and good ortho, then there are 2 evils within {Irina, Rhand, DMD, Tanner}. I thought Rhand was suspicious all game, but today he sounds great and I think he has just had RL obligations that have kept him away. Irina I thought was evil early, then I gave her lots of credit because I assumed Felice protected her, but like Tanner says she could be an Aux. I like Irina refusing to claim today, but I could also see her just being a frustrated Wolf. Her not using her power makes me sad regardless of her alignment.

Of those 4 people, I still think DMD is most likely Wolf. She sounds good today, but while I saw frustration from Rob like everyone talks about, it was NAI. His Lemon tunnel and his insistence on evil ortho were his main reads (aside from Dejo who he was correct about). I think we are in a weird case where it is not even evils protecting Rob, but goods like Aumerle who just have a good read from his frustration posts. I think DMD is doing a great job offering her reads here if she is good and contributing, but I think there is a high probability she replaced into an evil role and has been trying not to make waves until called upon today when the game did not end to engage more. Sorry DMD if you are good, but I have an evil read on you based on Rob's play.

Evil:

1. Raven: Magrat Garlick - A traditional Witch, she is able to choose a target each night from N1 to block. Cannot block the same player on consecutive nights. Cannot block NK.

2. Dejo: Agnes Nitt - Another Witch, able to block an action each night from N1. Cannot block the same player on consecutive nights. Cannot block NK.

3. kuchick: Claimed after almost everyone so who knows

4. DMD: Probably Corporal Nobby Nobs based on how much detail she went into about the role today

5. ???

That is 2 Witches, 1 Leprechaun, & 2 other roles. I could see a 5 person Team Evil with 3 those powerful roles already.
 
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whirlingdervish wrote:
If I assume:

- 6 evils out of 17 players
- good!kuchick
- evil!DUBS

I come out with:

Whirling, kuchick, Ortho, Rhanddom

DUBS, Irina, Aumerle, Rorab/Dupree

I think. It's where I'm starting, at least.

Edit: formatting

Is this still where you are on people?
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
1. Still does not work because ortho cannot be evil Leonard of Quirm. So ortho would be evil Moist Von Lipwig and the Wolves passed the Gonne N3 for some other reason.

ortho could be Wolf Moist Von Lipwig with Wolf Leonard of Quirm and the Wolves passed the Gonne N3 from Leonard of Quirm to ortho

It's a possibility, but would it not also require them to expect Dejo to block Ortho? If Dejo doesn't block Ortho then he has no excuse not to use the Gonne.

The Wolves were uninformed of Dejo being their Aux, so maybe they thought she was good and saw this as an opportunity to frame her while also avoiding any witness.

But then Dejo claims not to have blocked Ortho, and when she flips good two Wolves just outed themselves for nothing.
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:

Jedit Good: 5 total evils, otherwise Evil would have nightfall voted me already

You forgot that there are worlds with six total evils where they couldn't Nightfall because Irina is missing.
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
If this is an ortho frame job, then I think Tanner is less likely a Wolf. He knows (because I went on about it all yesterday) from my perspective ortho Wolf ---> Tanner Wolf. Maybe that does not factor into the Wolves thinking much if they think they can just get a mislynch on me or ortho today though. But if we have good Jedit and good ortho, then there are 2 evils within {Irina, Rhand, DMD, Tanner}. I thought Rhand was suspicious all game, but today he sounds great and I think he has just had RL obligations that have kept him away. Irina I thought was evil early, then I gave her lots of credit because I assumed Felice protected her, but like Tanner says she could be an Aux. I like Irina refusing to claim today, but I could also see her just being a frustrated Wolf. Her not using her power makes me sad regardless of her alignment.

Of those 4 people, I still think DMD is most likely Wolf. She sounds good today, but while I saw frustration from Rob like everyone talks about, it was NAI. His Lemon tunnel and his insistence on evil ortho were his main reads (aside from Dejo who he was correct about). I think we are in a weird case where it is not even evils protecting Rob, but goods like Aumerle who just have a good read from his frustration posts. I think DMD is doing a great job offering her reads here if she is good and contributing, but I think there is a high probability she replaced into an evil role and has been trying not to make waves until called upon today when the game did not end to engage more. Sorry DMD if you are good, but I have an evil read on you based on Rob's play.

After I analyzed the worlds where you and kuchick were good/evil, I came out thinking that maybe I had misread that, and you were good...or that you are both evil, but my point being that I had started reconsidering the idea that this was good!kuchick/evil!DUBS. However, your conclusion here doesn't make sense to me. From your perspective, kuchick must be evil, but yet you are certain that I am evil based on Rob's play...which I really don't get. I'm still not 100% clear on what about Rob's play made people think he was evil.

I also disagree with the part i highlighted above. I think I engaged as much as I could given the circumstances. When I placed in, there were over 90 pages, multiple claims, and a lot of theories being discussed. If you look at my previous posts, you will see that I still didn't/don't have a good handle on everything that had gone on and the mechanics of it all.

Other than me, who else would you peg as evil?
 
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Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:

Jedit Good: 5 total evils, otherwise Evil would have nightfall voted me already

You forgot that there are worlds with six total evils where they couldn't Nightfall because Irina is missing.

I suppose that is possible, but I would hope Irina wouldn't disappear over the weekend if team evil already has this won. I mean, sure it's possible she's uninformed and doesn't know that, but I would think she'd check to be sure given the talk about LHLV in Friday.
 
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kuchick wrote:
so I think Aumerle is evil.

reasons:
aumerle solicited a chat request from dibbler, knowing his ability would void the effort
aumerle was among the first to post a ponders sentence for testing, knowing his ability would void the effort.

there are ways to be engaged with the rules and encourage people to use their abilities without baiting samool (dibbler claimer) into targeting you for chat.

[vote aumerle] , what say you!?

I've been meaning since Friday to do this - kuchick is claiming a failed power use on me the same night Samool tried to chat w/ me. Looked back finally and this is approx her 4th post of that "day", which seems consistent with having tried to use her power on me and failing.
 
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DMDupree wrote:
Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:

Jedit Good: 5 total evils, otherwise Evil would have nightfall voted me already

You forgot that there are worlds with six total evils where they couldn't Nightfall because Irina is missing.

I suppose that is possible, but I would hope Irina wouldn't disappear over the weekend if team evil already has this won. I mean, sure it's possible she's uninformed and doesn't know that, but I would think she'd check to be sure given the talk about LHLV in Friday.

I don't want to get too much into this, but I agree.
 
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I'm starting to think that my first vote yesterday was the correct one.

How do other people feel about the argument that Dubs would probably only fake claim seer the way she did here and clear 3 people if at least 1 of those people is evil?
 
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Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
1. Still does not work because ortho cannot be evil Leonard of Quirm. So ortho would be evil Moist Von Lipwig and the Wolves passed the Gonne N3 for some other reason.

ortho could be Wolf Moist Von Lipwig with Wolf Leonard of Quirm and the Wolves passed the Gonne N3 from Leonard of Quirm to ortho

It's a possibility, but would it not also require them to expect Dejo to block Ortho? If Dejo doesn't block Ortho then he has no excuse not to use the Gonne.

The Wolves were uninformed of Dejo being their Aux, so maybe they thought she was good and saw this as an opportunity to frame her while also avoiding any witness.

But then Dejo claims not to have blocked Ortho, and when she flips good two Wolves just outed themselves for nothing.

Many already suspected Dejo, and maybe the Wolves thought they only needed 1 more mislynch to win.
 
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Jedit wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:

Jedit Good: 5 total evils, otherwise Evil would have nightfall voted me already

You forgot that there are worlds with six total evils where they couldn't Nightfall because Irina is missing.

If there are 4 evils still alive, then they must be unaware of each other, or they would have nightfall voted me by now.
 
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DMDupree wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
If this is an ortho frame job, then I think Tanner is less likely a Wolf. He knows (because I went on about it all yesterday) from my perspective ortho Wolf ---> Tanner Wolf. Maybe that does not factor into the Wolves thinking much if they think they can just get a mislynch on me or ortho today though. But if we have good Jedit and good ortho, then there are 2 evils within {Irina, Rhand, DMD, Tanner}. I thought Rhand was suspicious all game, but today he sounds great and I think he has just had RL obligations that have kept him away. Irina I thought was evil early, then I gave her lots of credit because I assumed Felice protected her, but like Tanner says she could be an Aux. I like Irina refusing to claim today, but I could also see her just being a frustrated Wolf. Her not using her power makes me sad regardless of her alignment.

Of those 4 people, I still think DMD is most likely Wolf. She sounds good today, but while I saw frustration from Rob like everyone talks about, it was NAI. His Lemon tunnel and his insistence on evil ortho were his main reads (aside from Dejo who he was correct about). I think we are in a weird case where it is not even evils protecting Rob, but goods like Aumerle who just have a good read from his frustration posts. I think DMD is doing a great job offering her reads here if she is good and contributing, but I think there is a high probability she replaced into an evil role and has been trying not to make waves until called upon today when the game did not end to engage more. Sorry DMD if you are good, but I have an evil read on you based on Rob's play.

After I analyzed the worlds where you and kuchick were good/evil, I came out thinking that maybe I had misread that, and you were good...or that you are both evil, but my point being that I had started reconsidering the idea that this was good!kuchick/evil!DUBS. However, your conclusion here doesn't make sense to me. From your perspective, kuchick must be evil, but yet you are certain that I am evil based on Rob's play...which I really don't get. I'm still not 100% clear on what about Rob's play made people think he was evil.

I also disagree with the part i highlighted above. I think I engaged as much as I could given the circumstances. When I placed in, there were over 90 pages, multiple claims, and a lot of theories being discussed. If you look at my previous posts, you will see that I still didn't/don't have a good handle on everything that had gone on and the mechanics of it all.

Other than me, who else would you peg as evil?

@ DMD: I am not suggesting you have not been participating. You have contributed a lot this weekend, and I think you sound pretty good! But I have to consider my read on Rob and the dynamic a replacement brings to my read on your role. I am not confident you are evil (unless Jedit is evil), but based on Rob’s play and the possible worlds we are in, I think you have the highest probability to be evil after kuchick.

Aside from you, my suspects are Tanner, Irina, & Rhand. Order from most likely good to most likely evil:

Rhand
Irina
Tanner
DMD
 
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