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Subject: Random Roles Discworld 17er 3 rss

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Denise
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Aumerle wrote:
I'm starting to think that my first vote yesterday was the correct one.

How do other people feel about the argument that Dubs would probably only fake claim seer the way she did here and clear 3 people if at least 1 of those people is evil?

I feel like that's probably solid. Otherwise, I would have expected the wolves to nk her that same day since she claimed an entire day before kuchick, right?

Thinking about kuchick also, if kuchick is an evil aux, I can't see her calling a hit on dejo as she would likely think dejo was a wolf. To me, that means kuchick either has to be good or is a wolf who knew dejo was an aux and wanted credit for that.
 
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Aumerle wrote:
I'm starting to think that my first vote yesterday was the correct one.

How do other people feel about the argument that Dubs would probably only fake claim seer the way she did here and clear 3 people if at least 1 of those people is evil?
I think it depends on whether she's aux or max and whether she actually has a viewing role. I wouldn't put it past her to go full FUD as a blind aux with no mechanical knowledge of who the rest of her evil team is. Or to call a hit on a fellow max, and clear all goods, if she thought that would fake us out (especially if the fellow max is tough/brutal, so that our lynching there is not really a parity win). I think a good Sam Vimes is a super-potent role and Team Evil strategy really ought to include flushing it into the open early so it can be killed. I feel like a good Dubs would not be spewing quite so much speculative FUD, and would have addressed me more directly with an inner narrative by now, and I am sticking with my good read of kuchick; her claimed clears don't carry weight with me one direction or the other (except insofar as I bother even less than I otherwise would with mental reservations about, say, Jedit's alignment).
 
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Scott
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DMDupree wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
I'm starting to think that my first vote yesterday was the correct one.

How do other people feel about the argument that Dubs would probably only fake claim seer the way she did here and clear 3 people if at least 1 of those people is evil?

I feel like that's probably solid. Otherwise, I would have expected the wolves to nk her that same day since she claimed an entire day before kuchick, right?

Thinking about kuchick also, if kuchick is an evil aux, I can't see her calling a hit on dejo as she would likely think dejo was a wolf. To me, that means kuchick either has to be good or is a wolf who knew dejo was an aux and wanted credit for that.

You mean if kuchick is really ponders but the evil version and had that same check? I'm not sure that's an assumption I'm willing to make. kuchick could be an aux and some completely different character.

I think the better way to look at it is - could kuchick still be evil even though she pushed for dejo's lynch even though dejo was an aux?

I would say yes. She could be some other evil role and didn't know that dejo was evil (because ponders stuff would all be fake in that case).

The question I asked myself then was what clues would evil have had that she was an aux for evil!kuchick to know not to call a hit on her over just some good person? And the best way would have been off of the apparent block on ortho's shot. If ortho is good that would make dejo look evil to them (and thus an evil person probably wouldn't be calling a hit on her), if ortho is evil though, that might make dejo look good to them, so could be a situation where an evil player might still call a hit on dejo.

So in evil!kuchick world, I think it makes more sense for ortho to also be evil (of course this also assumes that other shenanigans didn't happen with that shot).

However if ortho is evil.. then Dubs is probably evil, barring the specific situation that ortho is Moist. In fact dubs herself posted something earlier claiming she'd decided ortho couldn't be evil - so basically based on her view, she's saying he has to be good.

So, evil kuchick causes evil ortho and evil dubs. I don't really buy it.

(If kuchick is good, then dubs and ortho could still be evil because then her ponders view was just a legit view not based on evil shenanigans)

To be 100% crystal clear if kuchick is still around days after the Ponders claim then I think, like Dubs, that should be looked at. But right now, Dubs and kuchick do not appear at all to be on the same team. If Dubs were to flip max evil, I think that 99.9999999999% clears kuchick. (I'm not sure if our flips are going to say max/aux evil or if they are going to just say evil or good now)
 
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Oh crap, that's a good point. We may no longer find out aux/max! Mod?
 
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I wonder if that's why they ate Paper. Did they have a view of him as Brutha and prioritize blinding our knowledge of actual role and max/aux bit over solving the seers?
 
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Rhanddom wrote:
Oh crap, that's a good point. We may no longer find out aux/max! Mod?

Going by this:

Quote:
Brutha - A Priest. If Brutha is in the game, the game becomes alignment reveal only on his death.

- we'll only learn good or evil.
 
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The reveals from this point forward will be either GOOD or EVIL. Max or Aux status will be unknown.
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Scott
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Well I gave evil long enough to get their act together in the case that it's actually 4-4.

For anyone who wonders, I intentionally did not vote with the group since Friday on purpose because for me sanity matters more than winning, *especially* if we are in a situation where the chance of winning is extremely remote. And if evil has the numbers I'd rather they just ended it.

If we are at 4-4 then this is pretty much a lost game. Even if we get an evil today, we are at 3-3 tomorrow. Even if we get an evil that day, we are at 2-2 the next day, then 1-1 = loss.

The ONLY way that turns into a win is if one of the evils is an aux and we specifically do not kill that one person while killing exactly the rest of the max evils.

I'd rather just go out and buy some lottery tickets rather than waste the next however many days of my life on that situation. So I'm hoping that this is not the case now.

I still think that Dubs is more likely aux than max which is why I wanted to vote one of her views yesterday but at this point I'd rather just do it, get a reveal and go from there.

Dubs, if you're good, I think this is a lost game just simply due to the fact that I think the majority of town is such on the wrong track that we will never pull it off anyway, so sorry for losing faith but I'm at like 60% evil!dubs, 40% evil!kuchick.

Thoughts:

D1 voting is interesting if dubs is evil, the people that voted her were 2 known goods, dejo and tanner (earlier, and moved).

D2 voting is also interesting if we go down this route, look at the voters on ortho - basically all goods and a couple unknowns (Rob/DMD is my strongest good tone read out of the remaining people too)

Last couple of days, she called a hit on kuchick and was very focused on Tanner. The Tanner stuff felt weird to me, I kind of don't trust it, though. Also, the person she was calling evil the most over the first 3 days or so was Irina.

I lean towards Rhand as another evil if she flips evil as there hasn't been a lot of heat there and Dubs hasn't really talked about him much compared to talking about a lot of other people.

Dubs comes across as a very "fun" player because she posts gifs and videos but she's actually a math person, loves the logic part of the game and is extremely strategic. I mean don't get me wrong, she's fun too! But her playstyle is more strategic than it may appear. Regardless of what you think about my ability to come around on seeing her as evil, I know her play.

I might fake claim seer and just randomly pick 3 people just to do it, but I don't think she would. I strongly feel like she was clearing someone there, so if it's not Jedit, then I think it's ortho. It's possible there was another reason for this but I don't see it. Clearing 3 goods to artificially make her pool of mislynches smaller as part of the claim just serves no purpose that I can see.

Anyway, this game is driving me a little insane so sorry if I'm wrong but I think I'd rather the game just ended if I am rather than continuing for days trying to decide which seer is good and which is evil.

[vote dubs]
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 6 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13), Aumerle(17)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(16)
kuchick - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(15)
Irina_Phoenix - 0 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
whirlingdervish - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

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Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 2 - Irina_Phoenix(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(17)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 8 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14), kuchick(15), DMDupree(16)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 3 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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Kelci
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Skipper's log: It's Day 5, and all the panicked penguins are voting for The Skipper. Brutha Priest Papyrus Fidelum was killed in the night, in a terrible ploy to confuse the canoodles out of our craniums. Kowalski says I am not a good enough narrator. Hogwash! My narrator voice sounds epic. Kowalski keeps addressing entities known as "The Mods". Who are these Mods, and what have they done with Private? Jedit is Mr. Slant, a zombie lawyer. Could Private be a zombie Were Leopard Seal? Will killing the remaining Leopard Seals enlighten us to the key to reviving Private and curing him of his Leopard Sealocity? Why is Kowalski asking so many Mod questions in thread instead of Mod chat? Why does DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! only check in to thread to answer Kowalski's questions? Is Kowalski secretly in Wolf league with DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! and giving us the 1-2-rules ka pow Kool Aid punch?

I say this Discworld needs more penguin karate. Hi ya!




[vote Irina]
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 6 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13), Aumerle(17)
Irina_Phoenix - 1 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(18)
kuchick - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(15)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
whirlingdervish - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
DMDupree - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(16)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:30 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 2 - Irina_Phoenix(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(17)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 9 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14), kuchick(15), DMDupree(16), Irina_Phoenix(18)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 3 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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Kelci
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Aumerle wrote:
Well I gave evil long enough to get their act together in the case that it's actually 4-4.

For anyone who wonders, I intentionally did not vote with the group since Friday on purpose because for me sanity matters more than winning, *especially* if we are in a situation where the chance of winning is extremely remote. And if evil has the numbers I'd rather they just ended it.

If we are at 4-4 then this is pretty much a lost game. Even if we get an evil today, we are at 3-3 tomorrow. Even if we get an evil that day, we are at 2-2 the next day, then 1-1 = loss.

The ONLY way that turns into a win is if one of the evils is an aux and we specifically do not kill that one person while killing exactly the rest of the max evils.

I'd rather just go out and buy some lottery tickets rather than waste the next however many days of my life on that situation. So I'm hoping that this is not the case now.

I still think that Dubs is more likely aux than max which is why I wanted to vote one of her views yesterday but at this point I'd rather just do it, get a reveal and go from there.

Dubs, if you're good, I think this is a lost game just simply due to the fact that I think the majority of town is such on the wrong track that we will never pull it off anyway, so sorry for losing faith but I'm at like 60% evil!dubs, 40% evil!kuchick.

Thoughts:

D1 voting is interesting if dubs is evil, the people that voted her were 2 known goods, dejo and tanner (earlier, and moved).

D2 voting is also interesting if we go down this route, look at the voters on ortho - basically all goods and a couple unknowns (Rob/DMD is my strongest good tone read out of the remaining people too)

Last couple of days, she called a hit on kuchick and was very focused on Tanner. The Tanner stuff felt weird to me, I kind of don't trust it, though. Also, the person she was calling evil the most over the first 3 days or so was Irina.

I lean towards Rhand as another evil if she flips evil as there hasn't been a lot of heat there and Dubs hasn't really talked about him much compared to talking about a lot of other people.

Dubs comes across as a very "fun" player because she posts gifs and videos but she's actually a math person, loves the logic part of the game and is extremely strategic. I mean don't get me wrong, she's fun too! But her playstyle is more strategic than it may appear. Regardless of what you think about my ability to come around on seeing her as evil, I know her play.

I might fake claim seer and just randomly pick 3 people just to do it, but I don't think she would. I strongly feel like she was clearing someone there, so if it's not Jedit, then I think it's ortho. It's possible there was another reason for this but I don't see it. Clearing 3 goods to artificially make her pool of mislynches smaller as part of the claim just serves no purpose that I can see.

Anyway, this game is driving me a little insane so sorry if I'm wrong but I think I'd rather the game just ended if I am rather than continuing for days trying to decide which seer is good and which is evil.

[vote dubs]

 
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Scott
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
Well I gave evil long enough to get their act together in the case that it's actually 4-4.

For anyone who wonders, I intentionally did not vote with the group since Friday on purpose because for me sanity matters more than winning, *especially* if we are in a situation where the chance of winning is extremely remote. And if evil has the numbers I'd rather they just ended it.

If we are at 4-4 then this is pretty much a lost game. Even if we get an evil today, we are at 3-3 tomorrow. Even if we get an evil that day, we are at 2-2 the next day, then 1-1 = loss.

The ONLY way that turns into a win is if one of the evils is an aux and we specifically do not kill that one person while killing exactly the rest of the max evils.

I'd rather just go out and buy some lottery tickets rather than waste the next however many days of my life on that situation. So I'm hoping that this is not the case now.

I still think that Dubs is more likely aux than max which is why I wanted to vote one of her views yesterday but at this point I'd rather just do it, get a reveal and go from there.

Dubs, if you're good, I think this is a lost game just simply due to the fact that I think the majority of town is such on the wrong track that we will never pull it off anyway, so sorry for losing faith but I'm at like 60% evil!dubs, 40% evil!kuchick.

Thoughts:

D1 voting is interesting if dubs is evil, the people that voted her were 2 known goods, dejo and tanner (earlier, and moved).

D2 voting is also interesting if we go down this route, look at the voters on ortho - basically all goods and a couple unknowns (Rob/DMD is my strongest good tone read out of the remaining people too)

Last couple of days, she called a hit on kuchick and was very focused on Tanner. The Tanner stuff felt weird to me, I kind of don't trust it, though. Also, the person she was calling evil the most over the first 3 days or so was Irina.

I lean towards Rhand as another evil if she flips evil as there hasn't been a lot of heat there and Dubs hasn't really talked about him much compared to talking about a lot of other people.

Dubs comes across as a very "fun" player because she posts gifs and videos but she's actually a math person, loves the logic part of the game and is extremely strategic. I mean don't get me wrong, she's fun too! But her playstyle is more strategic than it may appear. Regardless of what you think about my ability to come around on seeing her as evil, I know her play.

I might fake claim seer and just randomly pick 3 people just to do it, but I don't think she would. I strongly feel like she was clearing someone there, so if it's not Jedit, then I think it's ortho. It's possible there was another reason for this but I don't see it. Clearing 3 goods to artificially make her pool of mislynches smaller as part of the claim just serves no purpose that I can see.

Anyway, this game is driving me a little insane so sorry if I'm wrong but I think I'd rather the game just ended if I am rather than continuing for days trying to decide which seer is good and which is evil.

[vote dubs]


You left off the "but" - silly penguin!
 
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@ Aumerle: Do you buy Rhand not realizing all these rules? I think good Rhand reads the rules for the answers to these questions. I think evil Rhand asks the questions in thread to look helpful.

[vote Rhanddom]

But my suspicion of Irina is returning to D1 levels.
 
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Going to Spirit Halloween again now!
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 6 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13), Aumerle(17)
Rhanddom - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(19)
kuchick - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(15)
Irina_Phoenix - 0 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(18)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
whirlingdervish - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
DMDupree - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(16)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:30 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 2 - Irina_Phoenix(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(17)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 10 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14), kuchick(15), DMDupree(16), Irina_Phoenix(18), Rhanddom(19)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 3 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
@ Aumerle: Do you buy Rhand not realizing all these rules? I think good Rhand reads the rules for the answers to these questions. I think evil Rhand asks the questions in thread to look helpful.

[vote Rhanddom]

But my suspicion of Irina is returning to D1 levels.

If you are evil here, you've done a great job of not being afraid to talk about people btw. That's a huge tell from a lot of players in my experience and you gave reads on everybody pretty much. Not just about the reads themselves but it gives you more info about the person to work with, the more they take stances on others.

Rhand might indeed be evil, but I dunno about that reason for it.
 
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Skipper's log: It's Day 5, and all the panicked penguins are voting for The Skipper. Brutha Priest Papyrus Fidelum was killed in the night, in a terrible ploy to confuse the canoodles out of our craniums. Kowalski says I am not a good enough narrator. Hogwash! My narrator voice sounds epic. Kowalski keeps addressing entities known as "The Mods". Who are these Mods, and what have they done with Private? Jedit is Mr. Slant, a zombie lawyer. Could Private be a zombie Were Leopard Seal? Will killing the remaining Leopard Seals enlighten us to the key to reviving Private and curing him of his Leopard Sealocity? Why is Kowalski asking so many Mod questions in thread instead of Mod chat? Why does DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! only check in to thread to answer Kowalski's questions? Is Kowalski secretly in Wolf league with DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! and giving us the 1-2-rules ka pow Kool Aid punch?

I say this Discworld needs more penguin karate. Hi ya!




[vote Irina]

If I'm DAAAAAAAVVVVVEEE!!! (and I hope I am, I like nicknames!) then it's because it's the weekend.
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DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
@ Aumerle: Do you buy Rhand not realizing all these rules? I think good Rhand reads the rules for the answers to these questions. I think evil Rhand asks the questions in thread to look helpful.

[vote Rhanddom]

But my suspicion of Irina is returning to D1 levels.

 
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But Dubs, if you're real, you shouldn't have a hard time convincing me. Set aside the speculation about what's going on for a bit, and tell me about how you've played your role from the beginning of the game. You're Commander Sam Vimes, you get actual alignment; the risks of false views are pretty much limited to Moist and getting Nobbied. Plus you could get witch blocked, you could hit Nanny Ogg, you could get witnessed or stalkered. And whatever other considerations struck you on reading the rules. What were the major decisions you made along the way, and why?
 
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Aumerle did bring up an interesting math point, though - I don't think we can afford to lynch an aux at all.
 
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whirlingdervish wrote:
Aumerle did bring up an interesting math point, though - I don't think we can afford to lynch an aux at all.

If there's six evils we're already done barring night actions.

The position we're in, either Dubs is good and we lose or Dubs is evil and her bros are hiding for cred. I don't think there's much sense debating which until we see the flip and know if there's a tomorrow, but we should think about who might be hiding if Dubs is good.
 
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Scott
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whirlingdervish wrote:
Aumerle did bring up an interesting math point, though - I don't think we can afford to lynch an aux at all.

I do think it could cost us the game - if there's 4 left - that's why my votes on Friday were ortho and Jedit. If Dubs is evil I think one of them is evil and I think the person that makes the risky claim is more likely to be the aux, maybe with an actual evil seer/sorc check on one of them so she knew who to clear to make it obvious to them.

However, I don't think it's likely that there's 4, I would think it would have ended.

If there's 3 we can afford an aux lynch, that would put us at 2 evils tomorrow with 6 total players. Unless someone is Rob Anybody with a tough or we hit Rincewind or something, which could set us back a day.

And who knows, she could be max evil and just saying she's an aux so we won't kill her is also a huge risk in it's own way.
 
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Jedit wrote:
whirlingdervish wrote:
Aumerle did bring up an interesting math point, though - I don't think we can afford to lynch an aux at all.

If there's six evils we're already done barring night actions.

The position we're in, either Dubs is good and we lose or Dubs is evil and her bros are hiding for cred. I don't think there's much sense debating which until we see the flip and know if there's a tomorrow, but we should think about who might be hiding if Dubs is good.

You mean who might be hiding if Dubs is evil?

My current guess for evil team is

dubs/ortho/rhand

Maybe replace someone with irina/tanner but I really think that Irina is just as confused as I am in this game and I'm fairly conflicted on Tanner.
 
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Aumerle wrote:
Jedit wrote:
whirlingdervish wrote:
Aumerle did bring up an interesting math point, though - I don't think we can afford to lynch an aux at all.

If there's six evils we're already done barring night actions.

The position we're in, either Dubs is good and we lose or Dubs is evil and her bros are hiding for cred. I don't think there's much sense debating which until we see the flip and know if there's a tomorrow, but we should think about who might be hiding if Dubs is good.

You mean who might be hiding if Dubs is evil?

My current guess for evil team is

dubs/ortho/rhand

Maybe replace someone with irina/tanner but I really think that Irina is just as confused as I am in this game and I'm fairly conflicted on Tanner.

I sort of agree. I think that if Dubs is evil then Ortho has to be; the Rule of Three doesn't strictly apply, but I don't see Dubs throwing out three clears. I can't think of anyone who would be locked as Town in that scenario, though, not even Kuchick. I'd have to see the NK as well before making that assessment.
 
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