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Subject: Random Roles Discworld 17er 3 rss

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Scott
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Jedit wrote:
Aumerle wrote:
Jedit wrote:
whirlingdervish wrote:
Aumerle did bring up an interesting math point, though - I don't think we can afford to lynch an aux at all.

If there's six evils we're already done barring night actions.

The position we're in, either Dubs is good and we lose or Dubs is evil and her bros are hiding for cred. I don't think there's much sense debating which until we see the flip and know if there's a tomorrow, but we should think about who might be hiding if Dubs is good.

You mean who might be hiding if Dubs is evil?

My current guess for evil team is

dubs/ortho/rhand

Maybe replace someone with irina/tanner but I really think that Irina is just as confused as I am in this game and I'm fairly conflicted on Tanner.

I sort of agree. I think that if Dubs is evil then Ortho has to be; the Rule of Three doesn't strictly apply, but I don't see Dubs throwing out three clears. I can't think of anyone who would be locked as Town in that scenario, though, not even Kuchick. I'd have to see the NK as well before making that assessment.

Yes, as well as whatever kuchick claimed for her view on the following day. Rhand would definitely be my most unsure out of the 3 there.

I mean of course you could still be evil (rather than ortho). But I've liked that you've stayed in the thread over the weekend, which I'm not sure I see you bothering to do if you are a dead evil when it's an almost win for evil here (although I guess if you are evil, it's less of an almost win since that probably means 2 max, 1 aux down). But for you to be evil, dubs and kuchick both almost have to be evil just due to claimed views - and while I'm certainly not completely closing the door on that prospect, it seems fairly unlikely. And then there's the real possibility that you were Felice's protect on N1.
 
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Kelci
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Aumerle wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
@ Aumerle: Do you buy Rhand not realizing all these rules? I think good Rhand reads the rules for the answers to these questions. I think evil Rhand asks the questions in thread to look helpful.

[vote Rhanddom]

But my suspicion of Irina is returning to D1 levels.

If you are evil here, you've done a great job of not being afraid to talk about people btw. That's a huge tell from a lot of players in my experience and you gave reads on everybody pretty much. Not just about the reads themselves but it gives you more info about the person to work with, the more they take stances on others.

Rhand might indeed be evil, but I dunno about that reason for it.

Skipper is a talker. Even more than Kowalski.

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whirlingdervish wrote:
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS wrote:
Skipper's log: It's Day 5, and all the panicked penguins are voting for The Skipper. Brutha Priest Papyrus Fidelum was killed in the night, in a terrible ploy to confuse the canoodles out of our craniums. Kowalski says I am not a good enough narrator. Hogwash! My narrator voice sounds epic. Kowalski keeps addressing entities known as "The Mods". Who are these Mods, and what have they done with Private? Jedit is Mr. Slant, a zombie lawyer. Could Private be a zombie Were Leopard Seal? Will killing the remaining Leopard Seals enlighten us to the key to reviving Private and curing him of his Leopard Sealocity? Why is Kowalski asking so many Mod questions in thread instead of Mod chat? Why does DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! only check in to thread to answer Kowalski's questions? Is Kowalski secretly in Wolf league with DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! and giving us the 1-2-rules ka pow Kool Aid punch?

I say this Discworld needs more penguin karate. Hi ya!




[vote Irina]

If I'm DAAAAAAAVVVVVEEE!!! (and I hope I am, I like nicknames!) then it's because it's the weekend.

You are DDDAAAVVVEEE!!! the octopus:



Your codename is Dr. Octavius Brine, and you are a super smart scientist who wants to turn penguins into jackalopes Were Leopard Seals with magic butt hands:

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Rhanddom wrote:
But Dubs, if you're real, you shouldn't have a hard time convincing me. Set aside the speculation about what's going on for a bit, and tell me about how you've played your role from the beginning of the game. You're Commander Sam Vimes, you get actual alignment; the risks of false views are pretty much limited to Moist and getting Nobbied. Plus you could get witch blocked, you could hit Nanny Ogg, you could get witnessed or stalkered. And whatever other considerations struck you on reading the rules. What were the major decisions you made along the way, and why?

N0: Random view ortho. Was excited he was my view because we have struggled to read each other in other games, and I read him good right away anyway from how he was posting, so it was easy to list him as a good read starting early.

N1: Viewed Jedit because of the discussion with ortho about Jedit hinting Detritus (a tough role) and because I read him evil, and thought ortho's suggestion for a Seer to view Jedit was right. Was excited to get a good read on Jedit because he seemed like someone I was not going to be able to figure out alignment from reads easily. I made note of the possibility that DMD had moved my view, but did not think much of it.

N2: Viewed Lemon some because I read Lemon evil, but more because several people (Rob, Irina, kuchick) had either voted her or had strong good / evil reads on her. I thought she was a great clear because it helped inform my reads of multiple people besides Lemon herself, although unfortunately Lemon's DEATH OF RATS claim later that day would have cleared her anyway. I claimed immediately at dawn on D3 because I did not want anymore time to be spent trying to lynch ortho after he was almost lynched D2, also when a couple of people voted Jedit. This was before I learned about the possibility of ortho being Wolf Moist Von Lipwig.

N3: Did not expect to live to D4. Viewed kuchick because she was calling me evil with no reasoning. Considered cases where she could be good, like if DMD moved my view, but when she made her Ponder Stibbon's claim it became apparent she was evil and probably planned the claim days in advance. Also learned about the ortho Wolf Moist Von Lipwig possibility and for the first time actually thoroughly considered cases where ortho or Jedit could be evil, which would explain why I was still alive. I spent the majority of D4 tunneling on my ortho / Jedit / Tanner theories.

N4: Also did not expect to live to D5. I thought ortho was going to shoot me regardless of what I said, but I made my Skipper's log to try to fool the Wolves in case either ortho or Jedit was Wolf and had only let me live N3 because they thought I was their Aux and now knew I was not because of how much I talked about them D4 so they would keep me alive another day. Viewed Paper because I was damn confident he was an Aux. I did not understand ortho's good read on him and also was no longer completely trusting ortho, so I wanted to know. I thought knowing Paper's alignment would be helpful for us evaluating Jedit's alignment because Paper called Jedit lock good. Obviously since Paper was the night kill, that view would have been better used on Rhand or DMD.

@ Rhand: I know you have not read everything in the game, but I would like to say: I have actually talked about all of these things. So I do not think it is fair to say I have not been providing explanations of my actions and thoughts all game. I definitely feel I have.
 
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@ Rhand: Some things I can expand on:

Aumerle: I knew Aumerle was good as soon as Raven flipped Wolf and from how he interacted with Rob. So no sense to view him, Nanny Ogg or oggtherwise.

Dejo: Thought she was good or Aux based on her claim.

DMD: I considered viewing her N2, but thought Lemon was a more optimal view.

Irina: I probably should have viewed Irina at some point, but I also read her evil until D3, and then I read her good , so a view did not seem necessary.

Rhand: You sounded busy for RL reasons and I liked your D1 day extension, so you were never a priority for view. I figured we would find each other eventually if you were good, and I feel like we are this weekend.

Samool: Thought he was good starting D2.

spj: I considered viewing her N1 because I thought she was evil, but I have learned from people like Royal that it is generally better to try to view for goods over evils, at least early on. Glad I did not view her, because her claim basically cleared her anyway.

Tanner: Obviously was never going to view Tanner based on his claim.
 
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Kelci
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I will be working from 11:30 to 1:30 tomorrow. I will be present for the hour before lynch. I may also be present some more tonight and tomorrow before work, but looking at all those reptiles and costumes was exhausting, so I may also just go to sleep soon.

@ Evil:

 
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So there are two or three flaws in that that I don't want to pick at right now. Let me ask instead: what do you think our strategy should be going forward? Suppose we're not collectively inclined to lynch kuchick based on your hit. Who's a reasonable second best that will shed some light on the Dubs/kuchick near-dichotomy without actually losing the game?
 
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Rhanddom wrote:
So there are two or three flaws in that that I don't want to pick at right now. Let me ask instead: what do you think our strategy should be going forward? Suppose we're not collectively inclined to lynch kuchick based on your hit. Who's a reasonable second best that will shed some light on the Dubs/kuchick near-dichotomy without actually losing the game?

I typed several responses to this question, and they all come to the same sentiment: Read my posts. I have told you my reads. I have made my case for why you should believe me over kuchick. For you to say “Oh there are a bunch of problems with what you said” and then not say what they are feels like throwing shade. If you want to know that I am good without lynching 1 of me / kuchick, then you should probably lynch ortho, because you all seem to think we are evil together. But I think ortho is good, so obviously I do not think you should lynch him. I care about lynching an evil, not solving a dichotomy. I think Tanner could easily be a Wolf and kuchick keeps defending him, so that is a lynch I would support. I have vocally expressed support for a DMD lynch.
 
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My student cancelled for tomorrow, so I will be around in the morning.
 
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I think Rhand is evil here. At this point I might even lynch him over DMD.
 
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Rhand is coming across as a good sounding helpful evil who is reading the rules more carefully than he is letting on. I do not buy that he was unaware of the fact that we would not learn Max / Aux status until Tanner brought it up. That felt like a coordinated conversation in Wolf chat. Rhand keeps saying he wants to know my narrative, but it feels like he is determined to find a problem with it no matter what I say.
 
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I am going to step away from Werewolf for the rest of the night. I feel like I am swimming upstream to give you all I can, only to be in lynch lead the entire weekend. People have talked about voting others, but almost no one has. It is getting disheartening. I am determined not to be the game losing mislynch, so I will return tomorrow, when I hope people will be ready to consider who could be evil regardless of my alignment. Maybe that was what Rhand was getting at with his question. There are people who are evil who we should be able to find through general detective work, regardless of what you think about me / kuchick, and we should lynch 1 of them. See you in the morning.
 
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@ Rhand: Here is an idea:

There are 8 players left and probably only 3 evils left.

What if we do this plan, which does not require anyone to place a bet on the alignments of me / kuchick:

1. kuchick nightfall votes me. This should be no problem for her, because she says I am lock evil. Now there are 7 votes left, at most 3 of which are evil.

DUBS: 1

2. I nightfall vote ortho, since you all think I am evil with him, given that kuchick says Jedit is good and we know Lemon was good. Now there are 6 votes left, at most 2 of which are evil (because kuchick & I cannot both be good).

DUBS: 1 (kuchick)
ortho: 1 (DUBS)

At this point, even if both me & ortho are good, and the 2 remaining evils both vote one of us, good still has 4 votes. So evil cannot win by a LHLV race no matter how they vote. The Village can then decide whether to lynch me OR ortho OR someone else without fearing a snipe from either me or kuchick.

Personally I am not a fan of this plan because I know I am good and I believe ortho is good. And even if ortho is evil, I know he is necessarily evil with Tanner, so I would always vote Tanner over ortho. But you asked for a plan that helps you solve the dichotomy. This is a plan that at least enables you to circumnavigates the dichotomy by putting the decision in the hands of the 6 players who are not me / kuchick.
 
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And now I actually am going to bed. Good night.
 
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See, this is why I ask people to give me their inner narrative. There are several markers in that story of having been made up after the fact. "I made note of the possibility that DMD had moved my view, but did not think much of it." That was long before DMD replaced in. I don't think there was even a Nobby claim at that point. And you haven't acted at all like you fear that an evil Nobby has messed with your targeting. "DMD: I considered viewing her N2, but thought Lemon was a more optimal view." Again, there was no DMD at this point. You're now calling DMD evil, or were on and off during the weekend; but this isn't causing you to reevaluate the parts of your worldview that have been colored by your views. You've spent more time on how your ortho view could be wrong because Moist than on worlds where you got Nobbied. And you've just proposed a plan that, if you were actually good (and neglecting the very exotic Moist!Ortho world), would almost ensure a loss by taking your vote out of play. Not a good trade for locking the hypothetically evil kuchick's vote onto you.

What I think you're really doing is trying to soak the lynch today. I think you're not a viewer at all; you're tough or brutal. The right way to handle this is probably [vote Irina].
 
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VOTE TALLY

Player (8/17) - # - Voted by

DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 5 - ortho_(1), Rhanddom(2), kuchick(3), whirlingdervish(4), DMDupree(6), Rhanddom(13), Aumerle(17)
Rhanddom - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(19)
Irina_Phoenix - 1 - Rhanddom(11), Aumerle(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(18), Rhanddom(20)
kuchick - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(5), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(9), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(15)
ortho_ - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(8)
whirlingdervish - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(14)
DMDupree - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(10), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(16)
Aumerle - 0 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(7)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:30 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 3:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Aumerle - 2 - Irina_Phoenix(12), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(17)
DIGGITYDAWGDUBS - 10 - kuchick(5), Aumerle(7), ortho_(8), kuchick(9), DMDupree(10), whirlingdervish(14), kuchick(15), DMDupree(16), Irina_Phoenix(18), Rhanddom(19)
DMDupree - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(6)
kuchick - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(3)
ortho_ - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(1)
Rhanddom - 4 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(2), Irina_Phoenix(11), DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(13), Irina_Phoenix(20)
whirlingdervish - 1 - DIGGITYDAWGDUBS(4)

Not Voting: Irina_Phoenix
 
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David Chapman
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Rhanddom wrote:
See, this is why I ask people to give me their inner narrative. There are several markers in that story of having been made up after the fact. "I made note of the possibility that DMD had moved my view, but did not think much of it." That was long before DMD replaced in. I don't think there was even a Nobby claim at that point. And you haven't acted at all like you fear that an evil Nobby has messed with your targeting. "DMD: I considered viewing her N2, but thought Lemon was a more optimal view." Again, there was no DMD at this point. You're now calling DMD evil, or were on and off during the weekend; but this isn't causing you to reevaluate the parts of your worldview that have been colored by your views. You've spent more time on how your ortho view could be wrong because Moist than on worlds where you got Nobbied. And you've just proposed a plan that, if you were actually good (and neglecting the very exotic Moist!Ortho world), would almost ensure a loss by taking your vote out of play. Not a good trade for locking the hypothetically evil kuchick's vote onto you.

What I think you're really doing is trying to soak the lynch today. I think you're not a viewer at all; you're tough or brutal. The right way to handle this is probably [vote Irina].

Dubs is referring to Rorab/Dupree as one person to avoid confusion. I don't think anyone apart from you is suggesting that this is a scumslip to fake a narrative.
 
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And it's a world-class stretch for you to turn a request for mod clarification of whether "alignment reveal" would still include the aux/max bit (which is independent of role name and powers) into some kind of wolfchat conspiracy to pursue an "aw, shucks" clear. We're getting down to where parity and Team Evil coordination are considerations, and not getting the aux/max reveal complicates matters, separate from not finding out whether the remaining evils have claimed false roles. I don't give a lot of towncred for mechanics talk but I'm glad Tanner brought it up.
 
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Jedit wrote:
Rhanddom wrote:
See, this is why I ask people to give me their inner narrative. There are several markers in that story of having been made up after the fact. "I made note of the possibility that DMD had moved my view, but did not think much of it." That was long before DMD replaced in. I don't think there was even a Nobby claim at that point. And you haven't acted at all like you fear that an evil Nobby has messed with your targeting. "DMD: I considered viewing her N2, but thought Lemon was a more optimal view." Again, there was no DMD at this point. You're now calling DMD evil, or were on and off during the weekend; but this isn't causing you to reevaluate the parts of your worldview that have been colored by your views. You've spent more time on how your ortho view could be wrong because Moist than on worlds where you got Nobbied. And you've just proposed a plan that, if you were actually good (and neglecting the very exotic Moist!Ortho world), would almost ensure a loss by taking your vote out of play. Not a good trade for locking the hypothetically evil kuchick's vote onto you.

What I think you're really doing is trying to soak the lynch today. I think you're not a viewer at all; you're tough or brutal. The right way to handle this is probably [vote Irina].

Dubs is referring to Rorab/Dupree as one person to avoid confusion. I don't think anyone apart from you is suggesting that this is a scumslip to fake a narrative.
The narrative is fake with or without the name substitution. It's just double extra fake for her to respond to a request for her own inner experience with a sanitized pretext-y tone. She's supposedly trying to tell me what it's been like for her, building on shared experience. Instead I got the kind of fiction that has to get from one plot point to another by any means necessary.
 
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I mean, seriously, Jedit; go back and read it. It's not real.
 
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Hi it's Irina.

Why is it never two LOW-posting games at the same time?

My physical(sick) and mental(thingfs) energy is very low right now.

I'm sorry I have missed things that I never caught up on.

If someone can help me with the current puzzle pieces I would really appreciate it.

I'm sorry I forgot to put in an order.

I am trying not to replace out of this 100+ page game but I need some help.

YRU voting me?
 
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Amanda Fabulous
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so, I guess there was a lot of weekend posting in this game.

fun.
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Scott
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Rhanddom wrote:
See, this is why I ask people to give me their inner narrative. There are several markers in that story of having been made up after the fact. "I made note of the possibility that DMD had moved my view, but did not think much of it." That was long before DMD replaced in. I don't think there was even a Nobby claim at that point. And you haven't acted at all like you fear that an evil Nobby has messed with your targeting. "DMD: I considered viewing her N2, but thought Lemon was a more optimal view." Again, there was no DMD at this point. You're now calling DMD evil, or were on and off during the weekend; but this isn't causing you to reevaluate the parts of your worldview that have been colored by your views. You've spent more time on how your ortho view could be wrong because Moist than on worlds where you got Nobbied. And you've just proposed a plan that, if you were actually good (and neglecting the very exotic Moist!Ortho world), would almost ensure a loss by taking your vote out of play. Not a good trade for locking the hypothetically evil kuchick's vote onto you.

What I think you're really doing is trying to soak the lynch today. I think you're not a viewer at all; you're tough or brutal. The right way to handle this is probably [vote Irina].

Actually Rhand, I don't like that you're arguing to change the lynch.

That she continued to fight the lynch last night makes me feel better about it. I think if this was something evil was fine with she would have just let it go last night and not posted as much as she did.

8 players, 3 evils is probably the best bet right now (if it's more than that then honestly whatever because it's over anyway we just don't know it).

If Dubs is Tough -

Tomorrow

7 with 3 evil

Then

5 with 2 evil

etc

If brutal -

Tomorrow

5 with 2 evil (so basically it advances us an extra day, honestly I kind of love this)

How is that a problem, plus since we have no real way of knowing if she's max or aux we probably need to kill her anyway if she's evil. If we don't do it today, it's just delaying it and taking a chance on someone we have less of a read on. Irina wouldn't even be my choice for next most evil, either. I think it's more important than this to put someone in 2nd place who's also likely evil, in case of Rincewind.
 
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I was really rather hoping not to have to help solve the end game because when I die (presumably whenever evil so decides to kill me bc leaving me alive isn't causing enough FUD to justify additional views?), people tend to give outweighted deference to known good seers when I know nothing special at this point. I've told the village everything I know.

so, thinking more as a villager here because you should take this all with an appropriate skepticism of how it is skewed by my worldview.

NOTE, my entire worldview is informed by the fact that dubs is evil..
so, while I haven't included her below (b/c what's the point.. you know my view there), here are a few quick thoughts from me on our remaining players...

aumerle - I'm so conflicted here. the weekend posting was much more appropriately skeptical of dubs compared with his early game, but I remain bitter over my wasted view and am concerned this is just a rehab effort so that if/when the dubs/kuchick apparent dichotomy is resolved it is not a death sentence for him.

irina - I found the panicky posts telling dubs to self-save problematic to the point of incriminating. with whom is she chatting today? I'd like a full accounting of her daily chat partners.

ortho - I'm not following why if dubs is evil ortho must be evil, but if that's true then I'm down.

rhanddom - I was an easy misvote a couple of days ago. I had barely been here or paying attn and evil decided to go after me hard (this is before dubs' supposed view of me), and I think he is a significant factor in my survival. I wouldn't be able to vote in this direction before most of the other suspects. There's a small chance he's evil and was just doing this for credibility (if I had been voted out then when I revealed as good it would make people wonder why he would have helped save me if he was evil..), so I can't dismiss the possibility entirely. Certainly, dubs going after him today (which is a bit of wifom) helps him look better as well.

dmdupree (fka rorab) - some posts have sounded good, some not so good. mixed bag for me. I'd vote dupree over rhanddom but probably not ortho or irina.

whirling - if we think there were 5 living evils before dejo being voted out, then having dubs (and I think dejo as well) trying to run whirling up on a day when most of the village was pretty convinced we had to get it right / it was must vote correctly day tends to exonerate whirling.
 
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I don't understand the "probably three evils left" comment. I think 4 is highly likely.
 
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