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Subject: Analysis of 30 games rss

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Jonathan Olson
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As a new fan of the game, I was looking for insights to cut some of the learning curve.

I manually navigated 30 games from the Play-By-Forum (PBF) section (30 being 'enough' with respect to time it took...)

I only took stats from the Winning Race from each game. I recorded the structures and resources the winning player had *after* the Round 2 Income & Gaia phases (aka, the productive results of what they did Round 1)

Size of the bubble is relative to the winner's final score:



Minimum score that still won the game was 143
Average winning score was 184.7

Visualized another way, here you can see the structures each winner had on the board at the end of Round 1:



I found interest in the frequency of a Round 1 Academy (AC) or Planetary Institute (PI)



66% of games were won where the player had an AC or PI in Round 1. Not only that, the games had a higher average score when they did:

AC/PI on Round 1 avg winner score: 191.35 (20 games)
No AC/PI on Round 1 avg winner score: 171.40 (10 games)

Worth noting: 100% of winners built a Research Lab (RL)on Round 1, whether it was upgraded to an Academy or not.


For resources, here are the ballpark "goals" for going into Round 2:

Credits: 6-8
Ore: 4-5
Knowledge: 3-4
QIC: 1

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Jon Kern
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Great Analysis!

I will say that Itars and Ivits are two of the factions that are easiest to play and tend to preform well.

Ivits literally start with a PI and the Itars are heavily incentivized to open with a big building.

This sort of makes the analysis of wanting to start with a PI/A a bit moot considering that many of these games had the Itars or Ivits winning,
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V Vendetta
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I guess Itars and Ivits both NOT in your games is kinda hard.
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Jack Liu
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I would break it down between AC and PI. I suspect AC is higher than PI by quite a bit
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Jonathan Olson
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Very true! When the 13 records for IVITS and ITARS are disregarded, opening with a big building drops to roughly 50/50

I will say that to a new player, 'knowing' that ITARS are 'supposed' to start with AC or PI wasn't exactly intuitive, but now it is.

Also to a new player, noting that brown uses AMBAS side in 2 player but TAKLON side in 4 player

//

There are many ways I could have got after some analysis but I did target what I thought was useful to a new player, but being one myself I may not have focused on exactly the right thing.

More to the point, I wish when I was data collecting that I had also noted "how many and which" Tech Tiles were gained in Round 1. I now think that could be incredibly important.... Unfortunately to my untrained eye it seemed like each game labeled each tech differently and so I didn't bother.

Also in future, may collect "which races were played" to find out more on race win/loss rates, but that is just interesting and not necessarily improve play skill
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Jonathan Olson
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Winners of 30 games (4 wins by IVITS not shown, given as PI)



edit: fixed image
 
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Jack Liu
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CitadelArmyGuy wrote:
Very true! When the 13 records for IVITS and ITARS are disregarded, opening with a big building drops to roughly 50/50


Ivit you can remove since they start with it

I wouldn't disregard itar AC. I have started PI before and I've seen other builds too

CitadelArmyGuy wrote:
PI on left, AC on right

edit: took out IVITS since they are given as PI


a little confused on this picture, what are you trying to display? top scores per race based on PI or AC? Avg score? Marginal score?

I was the person who did an initial data collection from pbf and other online games here. https://boardgamegeek.com/article/30985870#30985870

And it was brought to my attention by those who track TM data that margin score is the best metric to look at since every game is relative. Some games will naturally have high scores for all if there is good FS/techs vs some where the map/scoring possibilities are poor.

(Note: I need to go back and fill in more data from the new games, been super busy IRL this year)
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Jonathan Olson
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frotes wrote:
a little confused on this picture, what are you trying to display? top scores per race based on PI or AC? Avg score? Marginal score?


I only looked at the winners of 30 games. I'll go back and fix that image to be a bit better.

Thanks for the link to your analysis thread!
 
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