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Subject: The Re-Ninering rss

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ortho_ wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
ortho_ wrote:
I think Vander's n0 Benes seems kind of phony. The way he played it.

OK, good night to this game.

What about it is phony?

I don't believe you'd play D1 that way as Seer with a n0 Benes. It seems a little too over-the-top.

To me, it reads more like an actual read that you had/wanted to push and then now you're calling it your n0 clear.

How do you think I would have played it then?
Because I don't really buy this.

I thought I found a really good spot to push it and benes was under legitimate pressure even after that post.
I say stuff like that as non-seer roles all the time, so why would I want to be cautious about it?
 
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I don't know if there's even anything I can say here because I can't just prove that I'm good, I have to show that Royal is evil and majai is good (probably?) and I don't really have much.
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:

How do you think I would have played it then?
Because I don't really buy this.

I thought I found a really good spot to push it and benes was under legitimate pressure even after that post.
I say stuff like that as non-seer roles all the time, so why would I want to be cautious about it?

I don't agree with your assessment that Benes was in any real danger after his big post. I don't think your big push for him=good was a factor in him not being a part of the EOD tally.

Benes peaked at 2 votes, and very quickly dropped back to 1, then 0 post-big post. He then went back up to 1 with Dake's vote, which he had at the time you made your pro-Benes post. But multiple people had expressed good Benes reads by this time.


I think as a Seer you would be trying to survive to D2. And you'd know that given your almost-complete absence from the thread most of the day, the only way you'd get NKd is if you made the wolves nearly certain that you were the Seer. Otherwise, they definitely leave you alive because people wouldn't trust you based on the D1.

So, I think you'd soft play the Benes thing a little bit more, rather than it being basically your only strong contribution to the day in a very stand-out way.
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
I don't know if there's even anything I can say here because I can't just prove that I'm good, I have to show that Royal is evil and majai is good (probably?) and I don't really have much.

I agree. Probably showing Royal's evilness is your best bet if you're good.
 
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ortho_ wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
I don't know if there's even anything I can say here because I can't just prove that I'm good, I have to show that Royal is evil and majai is good (probably?) and I don't really have much.

I agree. Probably showing Royal's evilness is your best bet if you're good.

I claimed evil, so that's a start devil
 
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ortho_ wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:

How do you think I would have played it then?
Because I don't really buy this.

I thought I found a really good spot to push it and benes was under legitimate pressure even after that post.
I say stuff like that as non-seer roles all the time, so why would I want to be cautious about it?

I don't agree with your assessment that Benes was in any real danger after his big post. I don't think your big push for him=good was a factor in him not being a part of the EOD tally.

Benes peaked at 2 votes, and very quickly dropped back to 1, then 0 post-big post. He then went back up to 1 with Dake's vote, which he had at the time you made your pro-Benes post. But multiple people had expressed good Benes reads by this time.


I think as a Seer you would be trying to survive to D2. And you'd know that given your almost-complete absence from the thread most of the day, the only way you'd get NKd is if you made the wolves nearly certain that you were the Seer. Otherwise, they definitely leave you alive because people wouldn't trust you based on the D1.

So, I think you'd soft play the Benes thing a little bit more, rather than it being basically your only strong contribution to the day in a very stand-out way.

Iirc 3 people expressed suspicion on him after his post which is a decent amount in a 9p game. I didn't think he was a favorite to be lynched but to say he wasn't in any real danger is a reach.

I also agree that I was less likely to be NKed after my d1 which is why I have more rope, not less, to be able to get away with strong hints, particularly because I can easily not be the seer in that spot.
Were you "nearly certain" I was seer D1?
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Okay, so I can buy Net as Priest way more than I can Dake as Priest, and I'm pretty set on Evil Majai.

Majai being Evil doesn't mean that Royal isn't, but chances are improved.

Vander having a duff claim is hard, because instinctively, I tend to think the worse claim is the real one, but then I just deliberately made a shit claim in a game and tried to argue that I wouldn't have made such a shit claim if I were Evil, so it had to be true (I got voted out anyway, the rotters).

So 4 of these 5 are Huntillagers:

Me
Ortho
Dake
Benes
LJ

I had Dake pencilled in as Vill because of his no claim. I don't think he was Sorc, I think Sorc Dake makes a play because he doesn't want to shit on his unknown team. Wolf Dake might make the play, knowing that Royal and me are here and might take his no claim to be a Villy claim. And I think people are generically more likely to take that kind of gamble as a Wolf.

I think Sorc Ortho and Benes are much more likely to counter Royal's alleged hit, UNLESS they had him as their n0/N1, which shouldn't be ruled out. But I still think that, if they do, they probably get all up in the Priest game. They're both half cleared by our half Seers. :/

LJ claimed Priest and has rescinded, not outside of her wheelhouse either way. Quick skim of her ISO seems less manipulative than I think LJ looks when Evil. (as an aside here, I've identified LJ as Evil in virtually every game she has been Evil in that I haven't been playing in the last 12 months, but shit obviously looks different from the inside, and only I know this is the case, and now looking at Cassy, there haven't been that many, so is this a false memory? Who knows anymore, not me, that's for sure, my mind is fucked.)

So, I had reasons to feel like Ortho was Good yesterday, so I'm keeping that. And I had Benes as not a Wolf, which, given I think he special claims as Sorc means that 3 of the 4 slots go to me, Ortho and Benes.


Soooo:

Priest: Nets

Seer: Royal/Vander

Huntillagers: Smugs, Ortho, Benes, LJ/Dake

Evils: Majai, Royal/Vander, LJ/Dake

So, 2.5 Evils alive right now. I'm definitely fine with voting out Majai, because if he is Good, I don't think I'm coming round to it, so would rather lose sooner than later on the basis of that belief. My punt vote would be to vote for LJ.

I personally think that a true Hunter/Villager claim from everyone would actually help me work this through better, but accept that not everyone is likely to feel like that. So if people are up for this, me too, but if not, then no worries and I'll keep my thoughts to myself.

I don't know how helpful it would ever be.
The hope is that Dake was the hunter and we find that out, but that doesn't even help us not lose today

Well, two of the living Huntillager claims claiming Hunter would be great, IMO.

And say if Ortho were to claim Hunter uncountered, then I'm pinning a Hunter dichotomy between Ortho and Dake, and LJ moves into my Villager spots, and then I'm much more confident that Dake is Evil than I am right now.
 
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Also, happy birthday Mike, I'm sorry your present is me steaming in for your death.
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ortho_ wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
I don't know if there's even anything I can say here because I can't just prove that I'm good, I have to show that Royal is evil and majai is good (probably?) and I don't really have much.

I agree. Probably showing Royal's evilness is your best bet if you're good.

I don't really have anything! And I don't want to just make up random crap that's going to put people off me because I'm trying hard to push something I'd probably not even think from my POV if I didn't know he was evil.
I think Royal has sounded null basically all game and his claim probably isn't even inconsistent with what he might do if he were actually seer.
The problem is that basically everyone doesn't like majai, which is probably why royal called a hit there, but calling a hit there isn't even evil because majai was where I actually did plan to view.
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Vanderscamp wrote:

Were you "nearly certain" I was seer D1?

No. I had no blessed clue who any GS was going into N1, nor did I care.

I don't know what my opinion would have been had I needed to care.



Sorry, man, I just don't think you're the Seer.

I think you realize that there are long odds here for Team Evil and you're going for a Seer claim with a massive gaping hole in in, which we're conditioned to believe is true more times than not.

But the missing view part doesn't ring true to me. There are plenty of your games where I'd totally buy it. But you were here for the EOD. I think you'd have had a view in.
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Smugs wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
Smugs wrote:
Okay, so I can buy Net as Priest way more than I can Dake as Priest, and I'm pretty set on Evil Majai.

Majai being Evil doesn't mean that Royal isn't, but chances are improved.

Vander having a duff claim is hard, because instinctively, I tend to think the worse claim is the real one, but then I just deliberately made a shit claim in a game and tried to argue that I wouldn't have made such a shit claim if I were Evil, so it had to be true (I got voted out anyway, the rotters).

So 4 of these 5 are Huntillagers:

Me
Ortho
Dake
Benes
LJ

I had Dake pencilled in as Vill because of his no claim. I don't think he was Sorc, I think Sorc Dake makes a play because he doesn't want to shit on his unknown team. Wolf Dake might make the play, knowing that Royal and me are here and might take his no claim to be a Villy claim. And I think people are generically more likely to take that kind of gamble as a Wolf.

I think Sorc Ortho and Benes are much more likely to counter Royal's alleged hit, UNLESS they had him as their n0/N1, which shouldn't be ruled out. But I still think that, if they do, they probably get all up in the Priest game. They're both half cleared by our half Seers. :/

LJ claimed Priest and has rescinded, not outside of her wheelhouse either way. Quick skim of her ISO seems less manipulative than I think LJ looks when Evil. (as an aside here, I've identified LJ as Evil in virtually every game she has been Evil in that I haven't been playing in the last 12 months, but shit obviously looks different from the inside, and only I know this is the case, and now looking at Cassy, there haven't been that many, so is this a false memory? Who knows anymore, not me, that's for sure, my mind is fucked.)

So, I had reasons to feel like Ortho was Good yesterday, so I'm keeping that. And I had Benes as not a Wolf, which, given I think he special claims as Sorc means that 3 of the 4 slots go to me, Ortho and Benes.


Soooo:

Priest: Nets

Seer: Royal/Vander

Huntillagers: Smugs, Ortho, Benes, LJ/Dake

Evils: Majai, Royal/Vander, LJ/Dake

So, 2.5 Evils alive right now. I'm definitely fine with voting out Majai, because if he is Good, I don't think I'm coming round to it, so would rather lose sooner than later on the basis of that belief. My punt vote would be to vote for LJ.

I personally think that a true Hunter/Villager claim from everyone would actually help me work this through better, but accept that not everyone is likely to feel like that. So if people are up for this, me too, but if not, then no worries and I'll keep my thoughts to myself.

I don't know how helpful it would ever be.
The hope is that Dake was the hunter and we find that out, but that doesn't even help us not lose today

Well, two of the living Huntillager claims claiming Hunter would be great, IMO.

And say if Ortho were to claim Hunter uncountered, then I'm pinning a Hunter dichotomy between Ortho and Dake, and LJ moves into my Villager spots, and then I'm much more confident that Dake is Evil than I am right now.

I think that's fine but I don't think dake's alignment even particularly helps us right now regardless of what it was.
 
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ortho_ wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:

Were you "nearly certain" I was seer D1?

No. I had no blessed clue who any GS was going into N1, nor did I care.

I don't know what my opinion would have been had I needed to care.



Sorry, man, I just don't think you're the Seer.

I think you realize that there are long odds here for Team Evil and you're going for a Seer claim with a massive gaping hole in in, which we're conditioned to believe is true more times than not.

But the missing view part doesn't ring true to me. There are plenty of your games where I'd totally buy it. But you were here for the EOD. I think you'd have had a view in.

I thought I did and I didn't double check because it was 5am.
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So, I think we probably are going to win if we're in Royal=Seer world.

It could get a little dicey if Dake and Netslummer are both good, but I think we're strongly favored. In that world, I don't think a Hunter claim is necessary.


My question is: Does a Hunter claim save us in a world where Vander is Seer? I mean, obviously if it's Mike that'd be one thing. But I mean, does a Hunter claim coming from the rest of the Huntillager pool potentially cause us to re-evaluate the gamestate such that we can fix our error?

If so, on balance I'd say Hunter should claim. Because I think we're in good enough shape in the first world.
 
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Vanderscamp wrote:
ortho_ wrote:
Vanderscamp wrote:
I don't know if there's even anything I can say here because I can't just prove that I'm good, I have to show that Royal is evil and majai is good (probably?) and I don't really have much.

I agree. Probably showing Royal's evilness is your best bet if you're good.

I don't really have anything! And I don't want to just make up random crap that's going to put people off me because I'm trying hard to push something I'd probably not even think from my POV if I didn't know he was evil.
I think Royal has sounded null basically all game and his claim probably isn't even inconsistent with what he might do if he were actually seer.
The problem is that basically everyone doesn't like majai, which is probably why royal called a hit there, but calling a hit there isn't even evil because majai was where I actually did plan to view.

I really dig your tactic today. Even your "forgot to change my dake view" claim.
 
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ortho_ wrote:
So, I think we probably are going to win if we're in Royal=Seer world.

It could get a little dicey if Dake and Netslummer are both good, but I think we're strongly favored. In that world, I don't think a Hunter claim is necessary.


My question is: Does a Hunter claim save us in a world where Vander is Seer? I mean, obviously if it's Mike that'd be one thing. But I mean, does a Hunter claim coming from the rest of the Huntillager pool potentially cause us to re-evaluate the gamestate such that we can fix our error?

If so, on balance I'd say Hunter should claim. Because I think we're in good enough shape in the first world.
I don't think my opinion on this matters.
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[Dusk]

[killed majaiofdreams]

Majai has conceded and the game is over! Good wins!

And happy birthday to Majai, sorry this isn't the best present but the day can only get better from here!
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VOTE TALLY

Player (6/9) - # - Voted by

MajaiofDreams - 5 - RoyalApe(2), Smugs(5), Benesephiir(6), ljtrigirl(8), ortho_(9)
RoyalApe - 2 - MajaiofDreams(4), Vanderscamp(7)
Smugs - 0 - ljtrigirl(1)
ljtrigirl - 0 - Smugs(3)

Not Voting: N/A


Nightfall votes are denoted by an '*' after the player's name.

Your Moderator has chosen to use the Longest Held Last Vote method for a tiebreaker - This is just for Cassandra system, and there may be a different tiebreaker specified by your Moderator in the ruleset.

Lynch time is at 2:00 PM BGG
Night Action deadline is at 2:30 PM BGG

---------------------

INVERTED TALLY

Voter - # - Voted on

Benesephiir - 1 - MajaiofDreams(6)
ljtrigirl - 2 - Smugs(1), MajaiofDreams(8)
MajaiofDreams - 1 - RoyalApe(4)
ortho_ - 1 - MajaiofDreams(9)
RoyalApe - 1 - MajaiofDreams(2)
Smugs - 2 - ljtrigirl(3), MajaiofDreams(5)
Vanderscamp - 1 - RoyalApe(7)

Not Voting: N/A
 
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monogarden wrote:
[Dusk]

[killed majaiofdreams]

Majai has conceded and the game is over! Good wins!

And happy birthday to Majai, sorry this isn't the best present but the day can only get better from here!

Happy Birthday Mike! Sorry it ended in the noose
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Good game, everyone.


Tough luck, evil - The start to D1 was kind of weak, but the village did a lot to figure each other out on D1. You made a really good NK, but it was still always going to be an uphill battle.

Thanks for modding, Rorab and mono!
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I hate being GS.
 
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yikes. nice game, good.
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Benes, your call-out of my voting you was justified.

FWIW, I had our track record firmly in mind during D1. When I voted you, my rationale was 'I am voting Benes purely because I think one of him and Dake are evil, and now Dake is seeming good to me. This means I can't be doing my subconsciously thinking GS Benes is evil thing.'

And it turned out to work, in the sense that you weren't the Seer.
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Netslummer wrote:
I hate being GS.

Sorry we butted heads on D1. In the end, I really just can't read you worth a damn. I'll try to improve!
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i don't know how majai read nets as GS, but i was tipped off by other goods laugh
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Good game folks, thanks for having me along.
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