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Subject: Risk: A Game Of Luck Domination? rss

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joe partea
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Hi everyone,

I was just wondering how much of the game of Risk relies on luck. For example, say I am really rather good at the game, but a friend who I play with has only been playing for a few weeks and isn't as knowledgeable about the strategy, tactics, etc.

What percent of the time in a one on one game with a do I win the game against him?

What percent do you think you would win against him?

Thanks
 
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Stefano Castelli
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Thebestanum1 wrote:
Hi everyone,

I was just wondering how much of the game of Risk relies on luck. For example, say I am really rather good at the game, but a friend who I play with has only been playing for a few weeks and isn't as knowledgeable about the strategy, tactics, etc.

What percent of the time in a one on one game with a do I win the game against him?

What percent do you think you would win against him?

Thanks


Frankly, i don't think luck plays a major role in Risk.

I mean, it is just involved in:
- Initial placement
- Dice rolling
- Card drawing

and, if you are playing with objectives, the drawing of the mission card...

Apart from this, it is luck-free.

Err... ninja
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joe partea
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We don't play with objectives, we have random initial placement and also a neutral simulated 3rd player who doesn't attack but serves as buffers.
--

- Initial placement
- Dice rolling
- Card drawing

Yeah, these can have a pretty huge impact on the game clearly. Obviously if he was even a good measure luckier on average he will whoop me as he can penetrate defenses quicker, defend better, etc.

The question is how much, so say I've been studying a bit, pretty good, and played for maybe a year while he has only played for 1 month.

What percent of the time do you think I would win?
 
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Yehuda Berlinger
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You'll win 61.47% of the time.

Yehuda
 
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Sean Shaw
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That's pretty hard to say.

If one asked the same thing about another game (like Puerto Rico) it would also be hard to say.

There are too many other factors that go into saying a statistic like that, such as how smart are each of you, how quickly do each of you catch on to strategies, how do you think, etc.

And then of course, as with almost any game that has a die or some factor of Randomness, how is your luck?

Risk overall normally will have the rolls balance out over the entire game...BUT...

If you have really bad luck it might not matter how good you are you'll still lose...

The same would hold true for many Euros if you're initial draw of tiles are bad, or draw of anything is bad...

If you're luck is bad, unless the game is pure mathematical movement or numbers like a chess game...if you're luck is bad...

No matter how experienced...you can lose.
 
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Ottawa
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Take turns placing your troops for initial setup during the game.

Do not play with sets. However, ensure that you call out those that are turtling to bring down the collective fire on them.

You'll reduce the luck factor with just these two rules.

The game is called Risk for a reason.
 
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joe partea
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Shade_Jon wrote:
You'll win 61.47% of the time.

Yehuda
I understand there's not a ton of information I can convey to help with a difficult guess, but I'm just wondering approximate ranges. For example in a chess game it's essentially 100% the performance of the individual in the match/skill, so you might say a grand master would lose to an intermediate 0% of the time or maybe 3% or something.

In a football match there are tons of factors but people are able to estimate one team has say, %20 to win as the underdog, as this is the chance of luck overcoming the fact that they are less skilled.
 
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joe partea
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broken clock wrote:
Take turns placing your troops for initial setup during the game.

Do not play with sets. However, ensure that you call out those that are turtling to bring down the collective fire on them.

You'll reduce the luck factor with just these two rules.

The game is called Risk for a reason.
What rules favor the inexperienced/lucky? I.e. unlimited fortifications? I'm guessing rising set values do... etc.
 
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Yehuda Berlinger
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Actually, that was my best guess, not including the decimal places. You'll win a bit more than 6 out of 10 games against an intelligent opponent. I would think.

Yehuda
 
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Unlimited fortification is silly. I would use chained at the very least. But, I prefer only one fortification in an adjacent area.

Rising set values are garbage. Play with a constant set value, so that the randomness of the cards is taken away. Plus, you still have an incentive to attack.

I have played in a few games that increase the amount of dice an attacker rolls if he outnumbers the defender by a certain ratio: 2:1, 3:1, etc.

I play online and win 50 odd perfect of the time. That sounds like peanuts, but when playing against 4 or 5 other people, that's not too shabby. Risk has luck in it, no doubt about that, but anyone who says its all luck will get their ass handed to them in a hurry by someone who knows what they are doing.
 
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joe partea
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broken clock wrote:
Unlimited fortification is silly.
Why and does it favor the inexperienced?
 
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I believe unlimited fortification favors turtling. This is an odd favor, considering the mechanics of the game are made to favor attackers (extra dice, gaining a card, conquering continents for more men, gaining more areas for a larger return in men, etc).

Without unlimited fortification, a player is forced to take time in considering which area he will take over next.
 
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joe partea
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What's turtling?
 
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Man thinks, the river flows.
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    We used to play card sets max out at seven, players select their starting countries, and no objectives. Given the vast amounts of dice rolled in the game, it's rare that what remains will be significantly affected by luck. What WILL change is the fate of anyone who manages to own Asia for even a turn or two, as it greatly increases the value of those seven armies.

    This makes for a longer game, as you don't have thirty armies arriving to sweep across the entire western half of the board.

    Once when I worked at summer camp we actually set up six boards in a circle playing them end-to-end, with the seven-army card limit. In retrospect that was a remarkably big waste of time . . .

             Sag.
 
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Man thinks, the river flows.
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Thebestanum1 wrote:
What's turtling?


    It's a special rule that allows you to move your king and rook simultaneously, so that the king is safely hidden behind his pawns. Not used in Risk very often.

             Sag.

    Aw just kidding. Actually it's not far from that. Turtling is when you find a remote corner of the board that no one is interested in and mass all your troops there to wait out the storm. In theory, everyone else on the board will decide you're not a risk (and not worth the trouble) and ignore you to pursue other more pressing matters. As the other players tear themselves up on each other, your overall strength, though not growing, becomes more powerful due to their losses.

    With luck the other players won't play nice and cooperate to eat your head. Generally that's the case.

 
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Tim Seitz
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Like water spilled on the ground, which cannot be recovered, so we must die. But God does not take away life; instead, he devises ways so that a banished person may not remain estranged from him. 2 Sam 14:14
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Thebestanum1 wrote:
Hi everyone,

I was just wondering how much of the game of Risk relies on luck. For example, say I am really rather good at the game, but a friend who I play with has only been playing for a few weeks and isn't as knowledgeable about the strategy, tactics, etc.

What percent of the time in a one on one game with a do I win the game against him?

What percent do you think you would win against him?

Thanks


In Risk, you should probably win more than him, especially 1on1. Despite it being a dicefest, there are certain key strategies that a competent player uses that noobs don't think about.

*Focus on a continent, i.e., Australia. While most of the Geeks know about Australia, few casual gamers do. When they finally do realize it, it's too late. In subsequent games, they either continue to discount it, or they over-commit there, leaving you free to conquer everything else. It's very hard for them to judge the units required and to apply the principle of Economy of Force.

*When you can, take countries that are on your cards. Early game, before sets get large, this alone can be decisive. That first set can go from 4 to 10 armies. Noobs forget to look at their cards. Even when they do, if you retake their their previous conquests, they usually don't go after them again.

*Try to turn in your sets AFTER the other player. Noobs try to use them as soon as they get them. Knowing exactly when and where those extra armies will be decisive is a big advantage.

*Never leave it so that it is easy to block you from retaking a continent. You always want to be able to prevent them from controlling NA, for example. This is just thinking ahead, but again, this is what makes noobs noobs.

*Only attack when you have superior odds. (Attacking with poor odds can mitigate a hot streak player.) Knowing the odds separates you from the noobs.












 
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Zane Xavier
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I had to search this question to see what the responses were on the internet. Here's the skinny, my friend.
You could be the best player with championship worthy strategies but if you have even a streak of 7-8 bad rolls (not necessarily in a row), and your opponent seems to roll at least one 6 in the majority of their rolls, you WILL lose the game. Especially in the beginning where your just starting out with your territories and your focusing on making them stronger to invade and all of a sudden, your strongest territory is down to 3 guys because you had a bad string of rolls, it puts a meteor-sized crater in your plans, and really could make the game dull or boring for you.
I don't expect everyone to agree with me, but I've played Risk for years and I find that most of my losses weren't from my lack of thinking or holes in my strategy, they were from bad dice rolls. So to answer your question with my opinion. I'd have to say.

-Luck 60%
-Skill 40%

For the fact alone that one unit can fend off sometimes a squad of 5 or more units at a time (and I've seen it happen many, many times), luck plays a major roll in this game, at least in the beginning of the game. I find that once you have your territories pretty settled and your in the middle of the game, it might go to 50%/50% because you have to use strategy and sound judgment to keep it going. In the beginning though, skill really doesn't matter at all if your opponent doesn't stop rolling 6's when their defending and if your rolling 1-3's when defending. There's nothing you can do but take it.

-Hope this helps.(Even though I'm answering more than 4 years later )
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