Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
7 Posts

BoardGameGeek» Forums » Everything Else » Chit Chat

Subject: Project Runway Finals: my odds rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
United States
New York
flag msg tools
designer
badge
the difference between a "crowd" and a "mob" is one push
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Too bad I lack the GG to set up a betting pool.


Okay these are just percentages:

Christian -- 40% chance to win and and odds-on favorite
Jillian ---- 30% chance, and the one I think will win
Rami ------- 20% chance to win; would be better if he did not have to win one last challenge
Chris ------ 10% chance, he's the real dark horse


Breakdowns based on the last 3
Christian -- 50%
Jillian ---- 30%
Rami ------- 20%

Christian -- 65%
Jillian ---- 30%
Chris ------ 05%


To make the last group
Rami ------- 60%
Chris ------ 40%; yes I think he's got a serious shot to take down Rami


Anyone have other ideas and odds for the final.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike K
United States
Fairless Hills
Pennsylvania
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Osiris Ra wrote:
Okay these are just percentages:

Christian -- 40% chance to win and and odds-on favorite
Jillian ---- 30% chance, and the one I think will win
Rami ------- 20% chance to win; would be better if he did not have to win one last challenge
Chris ------ 10% chance, he's the real dark horse


Breakdowns based on the last 3
Christian -- 50%
Jillian ---- 30%
Rami ------- 20%

Christian -- 65%
Jillian ---- 30%
Chris ------ 05%

Mathematically, Chris's percentage cannot go from 10% down to 5%. Also, you imply that Christian gets all the 'Chris' vote if Rami advances.


If anything, I'd combine Christian and Jillian to be closer to 90% than 70%. If the 'third' person (Rami or Chris) is even in the final two, I'll be floored.

My gut feeling is that Christian will win. That said, consider the history of the show:

Season 1: Kara dominates the challenges, but Jay (who never won one) takes top prize.

Season 2: Daniel V. wins 5 out of 11 challenges, but Chloe (who the other final four unanymously said should be left out) wins it all.

Season 3: Michael is the fan favorite, wins twice, is only in the bottom two at the final challenge ... but finishes 4th. Meanwhile, Jeffrey survived the bottom two at least 4 times (including the very first episode) but wins it all.

In other words, being the favorite doesn't mean you'll win. Just ask the Patriots.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Mike K
United States
Fairless Hills
Pennsylvania
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
OK, actual odds:

Pre-Final
Christian: 50%
Jillian: 40%
Rami: 5%
Chris: 5%

At this point, it's a pure tossup between Rami and Chris.


Final, if Rami is in
Christian: 49%
Jillian: 39%
Rami: 12%

Final, if Chris is in
Christian: 51%
Jillian: 41%
Chris: 8%

I give Rami a slightly better chance in the final, but only slightly. Rami struggled in 3 of the last 4 challenges, which offsets much of his early successes. Chris, by contrast, finished strong (the denim episode notwithstanding) and has shown more originality, if less technical merit.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
New York
flag msg tools
designer
badge
the difference between a "crowd" and a "mob" is one push
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
blush Whoops. Fixed.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
Texas
flag msg tools
badge
"that's a smith and wesson, and you've had your six"
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Fierce!
3 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Karl Deckard
United States
Seattle
Washington
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Christian is the most talented designer, this season, and he deserves to win.

Rami is the next best; his perceived flaw is that he's a one-trick-pony, but that might actually help him to create a cohesive collection.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
United States
New York
flag msg tools
designer
badge
the difference between a "crowd" and a "mob" is one push
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
djflippy wrote:
Christian is the most talented designer, this season, and he deserves to win.

Rami is the next best; his perceived flaw is that he's a one-trick-pony, but that might actually help him to create a cohesive collection.


I gotta say though that Jillian has the best overall package of eye, ability, creativity, color/pattern composition, understanding of what a real wearable outfit takes to design, and drive. Her's are the most complete looks.

Christian's liable to shoot himself in the foot, as I am not sure he can do a collection that fits together. He needs life experience to get past just being an "avant-garde" dude in order to make something that not only looks good in a show but would also appeal to buyers.

Chris, I'm thinking, might pull something together, given the time to make a collection, that might make everyone else shake in their boots. Or shake with laughter.

Rami, talented as he may be, lacks a skill of composition that Sweet P, Christian, and Jillian naturally have. Most of his choices have been in neutral tones, which tend to underwhelm fashion writers. If he cannot add interesting colors or patterns he's threw. On the other hand, now that he's got the time, I am very curious to see what he can do.


BTW, from about the second show in I noticed that there was a special relationship between Rami and Jillian, and that it just seemed to intensify as the season went on. The way they look at each other and position their bodies toward one another speaks volumes.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.