Jon W
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Just tried a solo run with the dark tiles, and for my start in Bree, Frodo drew 19 bad tiles before hitting a good one. Anyone had it worse than that?

Ah well, I'm off to buy a lottery ticket....
 
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Cameron McKenzie
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Same thing can happen without the dark tiles. You aren't quite as prone to having an extremely long series of bad tiles, but you can't skip any of them either so short sequences of bad tiles are generally more harmful.
 
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Bryan Stout
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waddball wrote:
Just tried a solo run with the dark tiles, and for my start in Bree, Frodo drew 19 bad tiles before hitting a good one. Anyone had it worse than that?

I'm a sucker for math and logic puzzles, so I pulled up Excel. With Dark Events you have 46 Event tiles, of which 12 are good. For any number N of tiles that you pull, there are COMBIN(34,N) ways of pulling N bad tiles, and COMBIN(46,N) ways of pulling N tiles of any sort. Your probability of a run of N bad tiles is the ratio between them:

N Probability
1 0.7391
2 0.5420
3 0.3942
4 0.2842
5 0.2030
6 0.1436
7 0.1005
8 0.0696
9 0.0476
10 0.0322
11 0.0214
12 0.0141
13 0.0091
14 0.0058
15 0.0036
16 0.0022
17 0.0013
18 0.0008
19 0.0004
20 0.0002


So you did have a run of bad luck. How many of the bad tiles did you reject? How did the game go overall?
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Jon W
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I rejected almost half of them (I kept only single corruption and reveal one foe tiles, which I think totaled 3 tiles). But with the event track and die rolls, plus the battlefield damage, Frodo was 8 or 9 corruption and Sauron had moved a few spaces after the very first "player" turn. Only a few turns later Frodo rolled a 3-corruption and hit Sauron, game over. I didn't use the blue cards (one ring, watchful peach) because there was a cloud of doom over my head at that point, and I'd exhausted pretty much all my resources just getting halfway through Bree. I suspect I might have been able to get out of Bree, but it would've been like starting at Moria with Sauron at 6, only the Rivendell cards in hand, and 6 foes out.

Oh, and thanks for doing the probability work there! I'm not quite in lottery territory, but...eesh.
 
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Cameron McKenzie
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Barliman wrote:
waddball wrote:
Just tried a solo run with the dark tiles, and for my start in Bree, Frodo drew 19 bad tiles before hitting a good one. Anyone had it worse than that?

I'm a sucker for math and logic puzzles, so I pulled up Excel. With Dark Events you have 46 Event tiles, of which 12 are good. For any number N of tiles that you pull, there are COMBIN(34,N) ways of pulling N bad tiles, and COMBIN(46,N) ways of pulling N tiles of any sort. Your probability of a run of N bad tiles is the ratio between them:

N Probability
1 0.7391
2 0.5420
3 0.3942
4 0.2842
5 0.2030
6 0.1436
7 0.1005
8 0.0696
9 0.0476
10 0.0322
11 0.0214
12 0.0141
13 0.0091
14 0.0058
15 0.0036
16 0.0022
17 0.0013
18 0.0008
19 0.0004
20 0.0002


So you did have a run of bad luck. How many of the bad tiles did you reject? How did the game go overall?


While your calculation may be correct, it's not meaningful whatsoever within the context of the game. You never know how many tiles you are going to draw before you get a good one, and you can only consider cases where a series of bad tiles is drawn followed by a single good one.
I came up with the following table
Odds that the N bad tiles are drawn before the first good tile:
0: 26.09%
1: 19.71%
2: 14.78%
3: 11.00%
4: 8.12%
5: 5.94%
6: 4.31%
7: 3.09%
8: 2.20%
9: 1.54%
10: 1.07%
11: 0.74%
12: 0.50%
13: 0.33%
14: 0.22%
15: 0.14%
16: 0.09%
17: 0.06%
18: 0.03%
19: 0.02%
20: 0.01%

This is only for the first turn, since after that point you've modified the contents of the bag. The average number of bad tiles drawn is 2.62

If you want to know the odds of drawing AT LEAST 19 bad tiles (the odds of drawing exactly 19 is not very interesting), it's 0.04%

It is kind of like a lottery in reverse, since the best outcomes are the most probable. The worst outcomes are rare in this case, but they are REALLY bad.
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Bryan Stout
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You're welcome!

When playing with Dark Events, you may want to experiment with rejecting only the worst Event tiles, and sucking up the damage from the rest. Which event tiles are bad depends to some extent on your current circumstances, though the black squares tend to be worse than most of the others (though you do have a chance of rolling that blank die face). But the worst tiles are easily the sundials, which advance the Event marker. The longer you can postpone the last 2-3 Events of a scenario, the better.

In the basic game you have 2 avoidable and 6 unavoidable sundials, but with DE you have 6 avoidable and 16 unavoidable sundials. A policy of rejecting all bad tiles cuts this roughly in half, yielding 3 avoidable and 8 unavoidable sundials, still much more harrowing than the basic game.

 
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Jon W
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Hm, just noticed you guys aren't including the 4 red-bordered Sauron event tiles. They're part of Dark Events, just separated out so they can be easily included when playing with Sauron sans DE (at least, that's the explanation that makes sense to me, but the rules are pretty clear about always using them).

The actual total is 50 with those (12 good), so my bad run was a bit more likely. Still a cloud of doom, though, no getting around that.
 
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Jon W
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Barliman wrote:
When playing with Dark Events, you may want to experiment with rejecting only the worst Event tiles, and sucking up the damage from the rest.

Yeah, I thought I was doing that, esp. rejecting the sundials, but I still got nailed with die rolls, corruption hits, and foes. I've played this game at least 50 times, probably more like 100, so I have a decent feel for when a little damage is much better than an "oh crap" sundial, but sometimes the game goes postal on you.

Still curious to hear other people's bad/good draw records. C'mon, folks!
 
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Werner Bär
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waddball wrote:
Still curious to hear other people's bad/good draw records. C'mon, folks!

I remember a game where somebody drew 20 tiles out of the bag at the start of a scenario (with Sauron, but without F&F). Otherwise, i think a saw a 16, and several 14's.
 
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Jon W
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Werbaer wrote:
I remember a game where somebody drew 20 tiles out of the bag at the start of a scenario (with Sauron, but without F&F). Otherwise, i think a saw a 16, and several 14's.

Ouch! Just for full disclosure, my game was: 3 hobbits + Sauron 15 + F&F + Battlefields + DE (incl. 4 red tiles) = Sauron, Lord of Middle Earth.
 
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Bryan Stout
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D'oh!

Cameron is quite right -- I should have multiplied the probabilities I gave by the probability of drawing a good tile on the next instance. This is the sort of thing I often catch when *others* do it. Sheesh. blush

waddball wrote:
Hm, just noticed you guys aren't including the 4 red-bordered Sauron event tiles. They're part of Dark Events, just separated out so they can be easily included when playing with Sauron sans DE (at least, that's the explanation that makes sense to me, but the rules are pretty clear about always using them).

The actual total is 50 with those (12 good), so my bad run was a bit more likely. Still a cloud of doom, though, no getting around that.


I'd forgotten about the recommendation that the red tiles also be used. Here are the revised stats, using 50 tiles (and done the right way):

0 0.2400
1 0.1861
2 0.1435
3 0.1099
4 0.0836
5 0.0632
6 0.0474
7 0.0353
8 0.0260
9 0.0190
10 0.0138
11 0.0099
12 0.0070
13 0.0049
14 0.0034
15 0.0024
16 0.0016
17 0.0011
18 0.0007
19 0.0004
20 0.0003


Not a big change.


waddball wrote:
Still curious to hear other people's bad/good draw records. C'mon, folks!


I haven't played much with DE; I don't have anything to match your bad luck. In the regular game, there have been times when I've waltzed through one scenario with hardly any sundials, and gotten clobbered with sundials on a different scenario.

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Jon W
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Played again tonight, and saw an 18 tile run. It was actually recoverable, I guess, but it's so damaging that it puts the whole game off kilter.

Lost in Bree anyway, thanks to the Black Rider getting back to Mordor. Crazy game, so freaking hard at times....

sauron thumbsup
 
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