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Subject: Looks Like Tigris & Euphrates Will Fall To #5 Soon rss

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Rory
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Both it and Agricola are tied with a BGG Rating of 8.06. With the delivery of copies of Agricola increasing, it seems like a forgone conclusion at this point.
 
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Doc Bullseye
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Unless we all don't like it very much.

On the flip side, I'd have approached it with more hype if I'd had it in March than I will when it finally gets here.
 
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Rory
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KnobDoctor wrote:
Unless we all don't like it very much.

On the flip side, I'd have approached it with more hype if I'd had it in March than I will when it finally gets here.


I wonder if the amount of time it will have taken for users to get copies of the game will have an adverse effect on ratings. Perhaps people will play it and will judge it more harshly since they unknowingly expected more after having to wait so long?
 
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Karl Deckard
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Or, perhaps people will judge it fairly, based on its merits.

.k
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Marc Morley
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Once there are enough copies of Agricola in circulation time will show its true strength. It may climb to the top spot, but I feel that once it's been around for a couple of years it will drop or be surpassed by the next game en vogue.
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Rory
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Stratagems wrote:
Once there are enough copies of Agricola in circulation time will show its true strength. It may climb to the top spot, but I feel that once it's been around for a couple of years it will drop or be surpassed by the next game en vogue.


It seems that the Top 25 or so games is becoming or has become the Hot 25 instead. There are the usual games who have been in their respective spots for quite awhile, but a lot of new games (Race for the Galaxy, Agricola, etc) have quickly shot up into the top tier of rankings.
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Barak Engel
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roboman wrote:
It seems that the Top 25 or so games is becoming or has become the Hot 25 instead. There are the usual games who have been in their respective spots for quite awhile, but a lot of new games (Race for the Galaxy, Agricola, etc) have quickly shot up into the top tier of rankings.


And end up falling down (i.e. Battlelore).

I agree with you; I now tend to automatically discount any rating for a top-100 game that doesn't have at least a couple thousand ratings and two years on the market. I realize that was the original purpose beyond the BGG "fake ratings" but I don't think the effect of those is pronounced enough. Maybe some sort of time factor could be added to the secret formula?
 
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Rory
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lightnng wrote:
roboman wrote:
It seems that the Top 25 or so games is becoming or has become the Hot 25 instead. There are the usual games who have been in their respective spots for quite awhile, but a lot of new games (Race for the Galaxy, Agricola, etc) have quickly shot up into the top tier of rankings.


And end up falling down (i.e. Battlelore).

I agree with you; I now tend to automatically discount any rating for a top-100 game that doesn't have at least a couple thousand ratings and two years on the market. I realize that was the original purpose beyond the BGG "fake ratings" but I don't think the effect of those is pronounced enough. Maybe some sort of time factor could be added to the secret formula?


What was BattleLore's path on the charts? It's #19 now but I think I vaguely remember it being something like #8 when I first started looking at ratings about a year ago.
 
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Doc Bullseye
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lightnng wrote:
Maybe some sort of time factor could be added to the secret formula?


Maybe some sort of time factor SHOULD be added to the secret formula?

Not to restart an old debate...but it really bothers me that no game will ever be able to unseat Puerto Rico based on the current system.
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Rory
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KnobDoctor wrote:
lightnng wrote:
Maybe some sort of time factor could be added to the secret formula?


Maybe some sort of time factor SHOULD be added to the secret formula?

Not to restart an old debate...but it really bothers me that no game will ever be able to unseat Puerto Rico based on the current system.


I guess I'm confused what the issue is. If PR earned the ratings that put it at #1, then why shouldn't it be #1? Or was a new ratings system implemented after PR had garnered the majority of its ratings?
 
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Andres F. Pabon L.
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KnobDoctor wrote:
lightnng wrote:
Maybe some sort of time factor could be added to the secret formula?


Maybe some sort of time factor SHOULD be added to the secret formula?

Not to restart an old debate...but it really bothers me that no game will ever be able to unseat Puerto Rico based on the current system.


I really don't get it. On one side of the argument, the current system increases the chance for all those "flavor of the month" games, only to have them finally drop down 10 or 20 places to their final stable standings.

But, on the other hand, Puerto Rico is unbeatable. Both these assumptions don't seem to correlate very well to each other (if the first is true, then we would have a new #1 every time a new hot game is present; if it was the second one, hot games would have a very tough time to reach the higher places).

So which one is it? I personally like the current ranking system, and I do believe it reflects the "majority preferences" accurately. PR might not be my favorite game, but I do like it a lot, just as a lot of other people clearly do as well. Maybe one day some other game will top it. Who knows, maybe that game could actually be Agricola. In the mean time, PR has brought more enjoyment to serious gamers around the world than most any other game, and that's why it's still #1, I guess.
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Brad Miller
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Tigris is better than PR and especially Power Grid and Twilight Struggle...

SO THERE!

Can't wait for Agricola
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roboman wrote:
KnobDoctor wrote:
lightnng wrote:
Maybe some sort of time factor could be added to the secret formula?


Maybe some sort of time factor SHOULD be added to the secret formula?

Not to restart an old debate...but it really bothers me that no game will ever be able to unseat Puerto Rico based on the current system.


I guess I'm confused what the issue is. If PR earned the ratings that put it at #1, then why shouldn't it be #1? Or was a new ratings system implemented after PR had garnered the majority of its ratings?


Puerto Rico is only #1 because it has more ratings, and the dummy ratings effect it less. The problem here is that the Bayesian system Aldie is using does not represent reality at all. More votes =/= better game. They might mean more hype, better availability, more passionate fanbase etc, but not necessarily a better game. Statistically (using a standard distribution model) once you have a certain number of votes, all the games should be on equal ground.
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Steve Bauer
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bacusgod wrote:
I really don't get it. On one side of the argument, the current system increases the chance for all those "flavor of the month" games, only to have them finally drop down 10 or 20 places to their final stable standings.

But, on the other hand, Puerto Rico is unbeatable. Both these assumptions don't seem to correlate very well to each other (if the first is true, then we would have a new #1 every time a new hot game is present; if it was the second one, hot games would have a very tough time to reach the higher places).

So which one is it?


They both seem to be true.

6 of the top 25 were released in 2007 or 2008. It has either been a great year for games or some of these are overrated and going to drop.

PR does seem unbeatable. Agricola is going to have to triple it's current number of rating while dropping less than .05 in average ratings. Doesn't seem like any other game in the system has a shot.
The next closest is Through the Ages which would need to go up .05 while quadrupling it's number of ratings.

Not to say either is wrong. I want to see the new game rise and fall and from what I can tell PR has earned its spot and I don't think anyone could pick a better game.
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Chaddyboy
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I think people just put too much weight on specific game rankings. Nobody is ever going to agree that #1 is better than #2, and #2 is better than #3. Heck, a lot of people probably don't agree that #1 is better than #20.

What's important is that the top 100 are all good games, and most people in the hobby will probably agree that most of those games belong there. It's not important that #1 is the best game ever and #2 is the 2nd best game ever, because no one is ever going to agree on that.

As for new games, I pretty much agree with a few other opinions here. Popular new games will shoot to the top as the initial people that are excited about the game play it, then settle where it belongs after the stragglers start rating and the initial raters potentially start reevaluating their initial ratings. In the case of Agricola, maybe it's actually good enough to stay up there; maybe it's not. We'll see what it looks like a few years from now.
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Key Locks
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Getting back to the original discussion, Agricola just started to hit the UK market in the last few days or so, so I think this will be one of the first big tests of it's popularity. When it reaches the USA, we'll really start to see what it's made of. That's one of the reasons I'm glad I didn't preorder, because I'll be able to see a much more accurate picture of how good people think it is before I make the decision to buy. I really don't care about animeeples either, so it's all good. I may have to wait a while to own it, but that's okay because I just keep reminding myself of all the games I own but haven't played yet.
 
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Rory
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I don't know how long PR has been #1 for but I think eventually it will fall out of the #1 spot. I seem to remember its previous rating being something like 8.46. It has been steadily declining (albeit very slowly) and is now at 8.29. I think it will continue to drop and eventually another game will come in and pass it.
 
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Southy
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Unless Bryan Adams had anything to do with it then it's gonna be number one for ever!!shake
 
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Eddie the Cranky Gamer
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chaddyboy_2000 wrote:
I think people just put too much weight on specific game rankings.


I think its bloody insane that anyone can compose an opinion on the subject myself.
 
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Kevin Youells
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Let's stop all this silly arguing and just put Monkey Auto Races back on top again.
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Have faith
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chaddyboy_2000 wrote:
What's important is that the top 100 are all good games, and most people in the hobby will probably agree that most of those games belong there. It's not important that #1 is the best game ever and #2 is the 2nd best game ever, because no one is ever going to agree on that.

Yeah, statistically-speaking the top 10 ranked games are basically tied.

I posted this question a while back, asking for help from statistics gurus here, and they said games within about 0.5 are basically tied within the margin of error.
 
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Andrew H
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I think that I have contributed to PRs inflated ratings. I have several user names that I lost the acces to with forgotten passwords and changed email acounts. All the old ones had PR as a 9 or 10. My current rating is more like 6. If ratings could be removed from calculation of rankings for users who have not logged in for over a year (or two etc) then these accounts would stop skewing the averages. The ratings could kick back into the calculations if the user was just long absent and logged back in.

Better yet have a yearly PM from Aldie to check our ratings are still accurate to our current opinions. When BGG users do not respond to that PM (within x months) their ratings are excluded from ranking calculatons until they do.
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Scott Nelson
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Having owned Agricola for the better part of a year now, I can say that when it hits the table, it is an instant, "I really liked playing that." Puerto Rico is about the same depth, but the decisions are different - and to be honest I think because of the cards in Agricola it is not as refined and smooth as PR, but I still like it better. It just has that "something" that I like to work with, whereas PR has the same ol patterns each game, but that is because it has a fixed set of buildings, whereas Agricola has 14 cards per player per game and likely to get the same pattern as before is hard to sell. I would rate it as high as PR and I would also play it more than PR though I like PR, it isn't a "play me again" due to the system of buildings are limited.
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Marc Morley
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I think that some people like to join in on bandwagons so they can say that they always knew "It was the greatest game ever!" It gives them the chance to wow the rest of us skeptics with their amazing powers of precognition.

I see a lot of threads of late trying to include length of existence into a game's ranking and I believe the idea has some merit. The real problem is in trying to select a agreeable unit of time in which to measure a game's true quality is nigh impossible.



I think the topics just gives us something to quibble over, which is always good.

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Poll: How long before a game's rank should be considered accurate?
What unit of time would you consider accurate to measure a game's ranking?
After 1 play, duh
After six months of average play
After 1 year of average play
After 2 years of average play
5 years or more
      144 answers
Poll created by Stratagems
 
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Jason Wiebe
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Kevin Youells wrote:
Let's stop all this silly arguing and just put Monkey Auto Races back on top again.

Hear hear!!
PR is great, all the top 20 games are there because they deserve to be. Let's just leave it at that shall we?
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