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Subject: Mumbai rss

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William Boykin
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I'm surprised no one has brought this up yet on this forum.

I, for one, hope that there ISN'T a Pakistani connection to this attack. But the fact is, this terrorist action was done by a group that is very well trained and financed.

1) They came in from the sea, making thier entrance virtually untraceable and undetectable.
2) They were also VERY well equipped. Armed with MP5's, instead of AK47's, this group had access to weapons that are usually very hard for 'outsiders' to get. Lets face it, there are a TON of AK's on the black market, but Western gear is a bit more difficult. The bad news is, the Pakistani's have a liscense to make copies of the MP5, and its used by their security forces.
3) Indian sources have told the press that the only survivor, now in custody, has confirmed that they were a member of a banned terrorist group and trained in Pakistan. India has now put Pakistan on notice that they will DEMAND that the new government do something about the terrorist camps that live in the mountains.

Given that the US actions against many of these same terrorists was what outraged the Pakistani street only a few weeks ago, I'm a bit pessimistic about how this is going to go over in Pakistan. I HOPE that this is a wake up call- that the new Government is going to have to come to some agreement over Kashmir, and that they are going to HAVE to deal with the radical clerics and their schools/training camps in the mountains in Pashtun country, on the border with Afghanistan.

The good news is, however, that the Home Minister of India is ABSOLUTELY CORRECT when he said

Quote:

"This is a threat to the very idea of India, the very soul of India," said Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, the country's top law enforcement official. "Ultimately the idea of India — that is a secular, plural, tolerant and open society — will triumph."


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_india_shooting

Darilian
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The terrorists are there with knowledge and consent of the current Pakistani gov't. Musharraf was a dictator but he was anti-jahidist. THAT was what was objected to, not his being a dictator.
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GAWD wrote:
Darilian wrote:

The good news is, however, that the Home Minister of India is ABSOLUTELY CORRECT when he said

Quote:

"This is a threat to the very idea of India, the very soul of India," said Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, the country's top law enforcement official. "Ultimately the idea of India — that is a secular, plural, tolerant and open society — will triumph."



To continue the quote ...

As soon as we kill everyone who disagrees w/the "idea of India." devil


Perhaps you are only being facetious, but I think that is a very unfair statement to put in his mouth. After all, we didn't just witness a band of Hindu terrorists from India going on a murderous rampage through Islamabad.
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To be serious...this is a fairly scary moment.

The Pakistani government, post Musharref, bases a lot of its 'popular support' from the Jihadist and their fellow travellers who were persecuted under the previous administration. For better or worse, these guys are seen as 'honest brokers'- they have CONSISTENTLY been oppossed to Musharref ever since he moved away from backing terrorism in the Kashmir. Too many of the other political leaders in Pakistan are seen as corrupt, or too much 'in bed' with the previous administration. In thier anger over what Musharref did to the country, many people are willing to back a 'clean slate' of anti-corruption, pro-morals, pro-Kashmir, and (unfortunately) pro-Terrorism anti-Westernism jihadists.

The real question then is this- how many Pakistanis are willing to go the mat for the Jihadists, now that they see what the VERY REAL costs are going to be? My personal bet is that, pre Mumbai, it was 'fashionable' to talk of terrorists by many in Islamabad. But now that people see, AGAIN, what these Jihadists want, I'm hoping that there will be a political backlash against them.

If, however, there isn't, and the Pakistani people decide to go to the mat to protect these guys, there will be another war between India and Pakistan.

Its a very similar problem with Gaza and Hamas- what do you do when a political party that supports terrorism really is popularly elected? Hamas is FAR more popular on the street in Gaza City, and while part of that popularity is due to anger against Israel, and the corruption of Fateh, a lot of it is also support for a more 'aggressive' posture against the hated enemy- Israel. The same is true in Pakistan and Kashmir.

The unfortunate truth is that democracy is NOT a gauruntee that radical political parties that back criminal foreign policies from getting into power. Its one of the better ways to try and PREVENT these groups from getting power, but its not a sure fire solution. What do we do now?

Darilian
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Darilian wrote:
The real question then is this- how many Pakistanis are willing to go the mat for the Jihadists, now that they see what the VERY REAL costs are going to be? My personal bet is that, pre Mumbai, it was 'fashionable' to talk of terrorists by many in Islamabad. But now that people see, AGAIN, what these Jihadists want, I'm hoping that there will be a political backlash against them.

The Pakistani government has been turning a blind eye to militants since the Red Mosque incident and the impeachment of Musharraf. Of course, at the same time as all this going on (and constantly since), the US have been lobbing missiles over the Pakistan border. Then there was the Marriot bombing (targeting Americans) and now this attack in India (also targeting Americans, but with the added bonus of pissing off India).

Basically, I don't think there's going to be any backlash against the jihadists as long as Pakistan is the target of airstrikes. I suspect many regular people in Pakistan consider themselves at war and see bombing hotels as the only practical way of hitting back against the US.
 
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William Boykin
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sbszine wrote:
Darilian wrote:
The real question then is this- how many Pakistanis are willing to go the mat for the Jihadists, now that they see what the VERY REAL costs are going to be? My personal bet is that, pre Mumbai, it was 'fashionable' to talk of terrorists by many in Islamabad. But now that people see, AGAIN, what these Jihadists want, I'm hoping that there will be a political backlash against them.

The Pakistani government has been turning a blind eye to militants since the Red Mosque incident and the impeachment of Musharraf. Of course, at the same time as all this going on (and constantly since), the US have been lobbing missiles over the Pakistan border. Then there was the Marriot bombing (targeting Americans) and now this attack in India (also targeting Americans, but with the added bonus of pissing off India).



Basically, I don't think there's going to be any backlash against the jihadists as long as Pakistan is the target of airstrikes. I suspect many regular people in Pakistan consider themselves at war and see bombing hotels as the only practical way of hitting back against the US.


If you're right, then there will be a war. And India will win, and the Jihadists militants will NOT be happy. And- if they even THINK about using their WMD's...

I don't care what the circumstances are. The Pakistani government HAS to make a stand against their militants, and crack down. If they don't, then India will do it FOR THEM. And they will have the full force of international law on their side.

Pakistan has to get off the fence, RIGHT NOW, or that decision is going to be made for them.

Darilian
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Darilian wrote:
If you're right, then there will be a war. And India will win, and the Jihadists militants will NOT be happy. And- if they even THINK about using their WMD's...

Both sides have nukes -- presumably as a deterrent -- so hopefully it won't come to that. And traditionally, the countries that own and use nuclear weapons suffer no repercussions... which I imagine is on account of them owning and using nuclear weapons. My prediction is that the Pakistani government will make a show of rounding up militants, maybe find some scapegoats, there will be sabre rattling from India, the US will have a stab at 'independent' negotiating (pay no attention to the airstrikes in your backyard) and pretend to be surprised when Pakistan rejects them, and that will be that.

Darilian wrote:
I don't care what the circumstances are. The Pakistani government HAS to make a stand against their militants, and crack down. If they don't, then India will do it FOR THEM. And they will have the full force of international law on their side.

Well, at the moment Pakistan has international law on its side, what with the border violations and all, but as I'm sure you're aware international law is worthless now. You just rally your fellow criminals / willing coalition and off you go.

Darilian wrote:
Pakistan has to get off the fence, RIGHT NOW, or that decision is going to be made for them.

Pakistan tried cracking down on militants (under Musharraf) and the net result was something approaching civil war. The popular support for the jihadists has to diminish before Pakistan can have a neutral or pro-western government.
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Darilian wrote:

And India will win, and the Jihadists militants will NOT be happy.


That depends on your definition of winning,
just about everyone loses a war.

As far as jihardists not being happy, I rather suspect that they aren't
happy right now, otherwise they might be someting other than jihardists.
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Darilian wrote:
In thier anger over what Musharref did to the country, many people are willing to back a 'clean slate' of anti-corruption, pro-morals, pro-Kashmir, and (unfortunately) pro-Terrorism anti-Westernism jihadists.


Actually pakistan just reverted back to it's nepotistic duopoly.
 
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Darilian wrote:

If you're right, then there will be a war. And India will win, and the Jihadists militants will NOT be happy. And- if they even THINK about using their WMD's...

I don't care what the circumstances are. The Pakistani government HAS to make a stand against their militants, and crack down. If they don't, then India will do it FOR THEM. And they will have the full force of international law on their side.

Pakistan has to get off the fence, RIGHT NOW, or that decision is going to be made for them.

Darilian


An invasion of Pakistan, from anybody, is nothing short of madness. The nukes WILL be used, period. Why have nukes if not to use them to defend a country's sovereignty? India knows that, if they actually threaten Pakistan's sovereignty, no amount of US support will make the nukes go towards LA instead of Bombay. India will not invade unless the cost of not invading comes close to losing a few million people from a nuclear attack. Even losing a thousand civilians a year wouldn't come close.

International law has NO force against a state that goes truly goes rogue. The worse thing you'll see is severe trade sanctions, which, as Cuba has proven, don't guarantee a regime change.

Want to fight religious fundamentalism? Bribe Pakistan! Rich countries tend to care more about their riches than about their religion. Economic development makes countries more liberal and less fanatic.
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Eugene Zehner
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sbszine wrote:

Well, at the moment Pakistan has international law on its side, what with the border violations and all, but as I'm sure you're aware international law is worthless now. You just rally your fellow criminals / willing coalition and off you go.


Yeah, the United Nation has been known to harbor the "criminals/willing coalition" set. I served with some mighty fine Aussie "criminals" in Iraq.

Take Care,

Gene Z
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OutpostGamma wrote:
sbszine wrote:

Well, at the moment Pakistan has international law on its side, what with the border violations and all, but as I'm sure you're aware international law is worthless now. You just rally your fellow criminals / willing coalition and off you go.


Yeah, the United Nation has been known to harbor the "criminals/willing coalition" set. I served with some mighty fine Aussie "criminals" in Iraq.

Take Care,

Gene Z


C'mon now, the old equating the grunts with the politicians to drum up indignation is a bit old now. Nobody claims that soldiers are the criminals, it's the rejects in Washington (or Canberra) who make the criminal decisions, the soldiers just do what their CIC tells them.
 
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Doesn't the use of MP5's almost smell like a setup? Like the terrorists WANT to implicate the Pakistani governemnt to cause tension and possible violence at the state level. The use of AK's would have been cheaper and easier. Well, maybe not easier using indoors, but it's not like they anticpated having room to room gunfights. It appears as though they intended to kill all their hostages anyway and die in the process.
 
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TheChin! wrote:
OutpostGamma wrote:
sbszine wrote:

Well, at the moment Pakistan has international law on its side, what with the border violations and all, but as I'm sure you're aware international law is worthless now. You just rally your fellow criminals / willing coalition and off you go.


Yeah, the United Nation has been known to harbor the "criminals/willing coalition" set. I served with some mighty fine Aussie "criminals" in Iraq.

Take Care,

Gene Z


C'mon now, the old equating the grunts with the politicians to drum up indignation is a bit old now. Nobody claims that soldiers are the criminals, it's the rejects in Washington (or Canberra) who make the criminal decisions, the soldiers just do what their CIC tells them.


Indignant? I think not. What I would be indignant about is the "Soldiers/InterAgency/InterGovernmental/etc" personnel are just dull-witted tools/pawns/fodder of the ruling powers that be.

It would seem to me that citizens need to take responsibility for the actions of their government instead of passing it off as "criminal" in a self-defined/self-serving manner acting as judge, jury, and executioner because they're hindsight is clearer than their foresight.

Take Care,

Gene Z

ps Sorry about taking the thread of target, so, in hopes of doing some sort of recovery, I'm hearing that the US warned the Indian government a few months ago about an imminent attack in Mumbai and that we're getting a ton of intelligence from the tech left behind.
 
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OutpostGamma wrote:

Indignant? I think not. What I would be indignant about is the "Soldiers/InterAgency/InterGovernmental/etc" are just dull-witted tools/pawns/fodder of the ruling powers that be. It would seem to me that citizens need to take responsibility for the actions of their government instead of passing it off as "criminal" because they're hindsight in clearer than their foresight.

Take Care,

Gene Z


You can't equate soldiers with the government. They are bound to follow the CIC by oath and have to trust his/her judgement (at least in the U.S.). We, as citizens, don't and didn't. There was plenty of people arguing against Iraq when Bush and his cabinet shoved it down our throats. Close to half of the country didn't vote for Bush both elections. It's not hindsight for us, it's not hindsight for Bush Sr who put the brakes on in Desert storm because he listend to the experts who said that Iraq was an expensive (in money, political capital and lives) campaign better off left alone, it's not hindsight for all the governmental experts who were stifled and silenced because when they warned about the cost of Iraq leading up to war, it's not hindsight that every so-called piece of evidence Bush exagerrated and trotted out for Congress and the public was quickly discredited by experts. No, that was foresight. What we are responsible for is not holding these corrupt politicians responsible for not listening to the foresight. To this day, there has been no repercussions for anyone for the mistakes in Iraq, in fact the only people who have paid are the soldiers, with their lives and livelihoods, and the citizens with their taxes.

The only people guilty of rivisionist hindsight are the hawks who claim that this was the plan all along.
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TheChin! wrote:
OutpostGamma wrote:

Indignant? I think not. What I would be indignant about is the "Soldiers/InterAgency/InterGovernmental/etc" are just dull-witted tools/pawns/fodder of the ruling powers that be. It would seem to me that citizens need to take responsibility for the actions of their government instead of passing it off as "criminal" because they're hindsight in clearer than their foresight.

Take Care,

Gene Z


...What we are responsible for is not holding these corrupt politicians responsible ...


Truth.

Take Care,

Gene Z
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OutpostGamma wrote:
Yeah, the United Nation has been known to harbor the "criminals/willing coalition" set. I served with some mighty fine Aussie "criminals" in Iraq.

I'm sure they were just following orders. Support our troops!


 
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So then, sbszine, we should just sit back and allow the Jihadists in Pakistan continue to plan new terrorist attacks against India and the West?

No. India won't 'invade'- but if Pakistan doesn't crack down, they will cross the border and they will take out those camps on their own. More to the point, they have the capability to do it, as well. The Pakistani air force is no match for the Indian air force- and India has a very good Special Operations branch as well.

I'm sorry that handing Pakistan some foreign aid and a better relationship with the West won't lead to them getting rid of their terrorists. But it won't. It wouldn't have in Afghanistan either. The simple awful truth is that terrorists are cheap. A blockade on a rogue nation that wants nuclear weapons can help slow that development- because weapons are so expensive and technical. But guys in training camps, are easy to smuggle. But they have a weakness....

The cell leaders are the key. If you kill them, you'll get a bunch more grunts wanting to join, but they won't be skilled. Whats key is to kill the 'terrorist professionals' who disseminate training information, the 'nuts and bolts' of what it takes to be an EFFECTIVE terrorist. We'll never get 'all' of them, but we can make them MUCH less effective. And if this means that we have to do some very bad things to kill these even worse men.....Well, I'm not going to cry many tears.

Darilian
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Honestly, I don't know if there's a short term solution to this one. Personally, I think that increasing the standard of living, education etc is most likely to lead to a stable secular society, but that's a long term approach that's not going to solve the immediate problems.

Conventional war just doesn't seem to work against terrorism, because it's based on ideology rather than physical infrastructure.

I think the best thing the west can do for Pakistan right now is withdraw its military from the Pakistan border, and fund moderate Islamic politicians. There are people who are locally popular, but also palatable to India and the west, such as Imran Khan.

Anyway, to answer your original question, since military action doesn't seem to work against terrorism, in the short term India should beef up intelligence / security / border patrols and hope for the best.

 
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sbszine wrote:


Conventional war just doesn't seem to work against terrorism, because it's based on ideology rather than physical infrastructure.

Anyway, to answer your original question, since military action doesn't seem to work against terrorism, in the short term India should beef up intelligence / security / border patrols and hope for the best.



Which is why India (and the US) should whack the idealogues in charge, try to make their communications as difficult as possible, and disrupt the terrorist camps.

It will be a war, have no doubt about that. But I'm not saying that India will have tanks moving into Islamabad. Rather, they will do the nasty things against the Jihadists that the Pakistanis don't seem to want to do themselves. And either the Pakistani government will accept this (while publicly decrying it, of course) and try to acheive some rapprochment with the West and India- or they won't, in which case they become a pariah state subject to constant bombardment of the Pashtun border, routine patrols by US and Coalition forces, and the assasination of the Jihadist leaders UNTIL they do something.

Its carrot and stick policy- but after Mumbai, this is NOT the time for the carrot. Pakistan has to DO something to earn the carrot.

Darilian
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'The stick' as you put it (bombardment and assassination), just drums up popular support for terrorists. It doesn't work in practice. It's been tried in Palestine, for example, and terrorism didn't magically go away. Did Hamas see the error of their ways and suddenly want to 'earn the carrot'?

The desire for justice or to just do something is understandable, but if it's going to be counterproductive, we have to face that.
 
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sbszine wrote:
OutpostGamma wrote:
Yeah, the United Nation has been known to harbor the "criminals/willing coalition" set. I served with some mighty fine Aussie "criminals" in Iraq.

I'm sure they were just following orders. Support our troops!


I'm sure you do. 12 Oct 2002.



Take Care,

Gene Z
 
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sbszine wrote:
'The stick' as you put it (bombardment and assassination), just drums up popular support for terrorists. It doesn't work in practice. It's been tried in Palestine, for example, and terrorism didn't magically go away. Did Hamas see the error of their ways and suddenly want to 'earn the carrot'?

The desire for justice or to just do something is understandable, but if it's going to be counterproductive, we have to face that.

Um, as a matter of fact whenever we have actually made a real response to Chamas and their ilk, he terrorism HAS "magically gone away" but the gov't is neither consistent nor regular about it. They even actually do things to encourage such acts-- like releasing terrorists for no return whatsoever.
 
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