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Subject: Quick Combat results table rss

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Chris Ferejohn
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I just played Perikles for the first time last night. We played by the rules as written, but by the end I could really see the point of the simplified combat results table (http://www.boardgamegeek.com/file/info/25743).

However, I notice that if attacker has the advantage and a 3:1 troop lead, the table indicates 100% victory (and conversely is the defender is up 1:2 and has the advantage, the attacker has a 0% chance). I know the chance of the opposite result in these cases is vanishingly small (essentially the lesser side has to succeed on a 1-in-12 chance twice before the greater side can get a 5-in-6 chance once), but it's still not technically zero. I don't know how to calculate the exact odds, but how about if a 100 is rolled, the lessor side gets a 50/50 shot of winning (essentially 1-in-200). Would this be a reasonable approximation or is that still giving them too much of a shot?
 
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John Lopez
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I have Perikles, but I don't have the rules in front of me. If your figures are correct, that is a 1:12, 1:12 and 1:6 chance (successively) required to be a success. Such odds are multiplied together to get a final chance of success of 1:864 (1:12x12x6). Not quite one in a thousand, but pretty bad.

If you are using percentile dice, you can look for that 01 result and then roll again. As we now are *still* looking for the 1:8.6 remainder (11.6%), you are looking for a 11 or lower result on the *second* roll.

EDIT: Fixed the bad math and typing.
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Chris Ferejohn
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Hmm, yeah, there's a little tweak to be made because if the underdog makes the first roll, then *both* players make or miss the second roll, the underdog is still alive (but both players have to keep rolling). So basically 1.3% of the time (when the underdog wins and the favorite loses), there is then a 6.9% (the chance they both make) + 15.3% (the chance they both miss) = 22.2% chance that the combat will continue. So basically .2% of the time the underdog gets another shot at his 1.3% chance.

Assuming I am doing the math right anyway.

So uh, yeah, that's pretty vanishingly small. Maybe if there's a 00 I'll say that the underdog can call out a number on a d6 and if they roll it then they win. That comes out to 1-in-600, which is probably actually slightly better than it should be, but I like leaving the "oh my god I can't believe you got a runner-runner straight flush vs. my flopped quads" chance in there.
 
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