Looking at the map, it appears that Alec has set up strong units on and just behind the frontlines again. Last time I engaged heavily and kept fighting, which ended up costing me a lot of good armour and mech steps. I won't make the same mistakes.
It looks like the field is pretty much open in the north (except for poor terrain). I think that, in the interests of keeping Alec on his toes, I'm going to try for Leningrad, hopefully before Alec can get anything serious up there to stop me.
June II 1941-OKH(III),AGNorth(III Blitz), AGCentre(III)
I push a lot of armour into Kaunas SW1, trying to get a breakthrough which will get me over the Dvina this turn. I engage Alec's whole front, but predominantly with infantry. I want to slow his units down, and to only take casualties on my less expensive units.
With my OKH moves, I attack across the river in Rumania to take advantage of my first turn surprise. I don't expect that Alec has put another strong unit there this game, but I use my OKH airstrike just in case. It's unsupported, but I stand a chance of doing a couple of hits. If I get lucky and destroy the Russian unit, then it'll give Alec something to worry about in the south. I'm not planning an offensive there, but if I can distract Alec I might stand a better chance in the north.
This game I'm determined to keep my mind on my target-Leningrad. If I can keep a flow of new units into the North, and if Alec doesn't put enough in front of me, I could be at Novgorod (two hexes from Leningrad) by mid or late July.
In my blitz phase I push forwards to the doorstep of Minsk, and across the Dvina in the north. I'll have an HQ ready to command the armour east of the Dvina next turn, and hopefully they'll get further forwards before they stop. However, I must remember not to engage anything with them, because I don't want to deal with armour casualties again so soon.
I step up all four HQ's, step up 2 infantry units, and my mech unit. Keeping the mech unit unengaged is helpful for the Germans if they want to avoid wasting PPs in July 41.
July I 1941-OKH(III), AGSouth(III)
I keep pushing eastwards in the north, and go without activating at all in the south. I don't want to expend HQ steps for a theatre which I'm not planning to invest a lot of time in. I'd rather let Alec retreat at this point, and just activate to cover open territory and keep the pressure on.
My main attacks are on Minsk and Riga. Riga is currently keeping four units south of Ventspils supplied, the sooner I take them out the better. Riga falls to a heavy attack (airstrike, infantry, two armour units), and now it's just a matter of time before Alec's left over units are starved out.
July II 1941-AGCentre(III), AGRum(II), AGSouth(II)
I activate in the south for the first time to chase Alec's units there. I engage Odessa, hoping for a repeat of the attack on Riga (although this is an all-infantry attack, so that's not likely).
Although I didn't want to, I activate in the north. I move forward and position AGNorth for a possible attack on Leningrad next turn (I'm only a hex or two away from the fortress city already, and should at least be able to put it out of supply this scenario).
My rapid advance has left my army dispersed, so I may need to use a turn to get things back together. I'm sure that Alec could make good use of a delay, so I'll have to think twice before I do that but it might be necessary.
All five HQ's need to be stepped up, which leaves only 6PP. My mech is at full strength, so I increase an infantry to 3CV and waste 2PP.
August I 1941-OKH(III), North(III), Centre(III)
There is a lot of open territory between Alec and I, but I can't really afford a blitz at this point to catch up. Never the less, this month I should get Kiev and Odessa, and put myself in a position to isolate Leningrad in September. My movements this turn cut off Kiev and Odessa, and in the north I bring up about 6 units that were straggling behind.
August II 1941-OKH(II), AGRum(II)
I desperately need to bring up my HQ's to full strength, and get them closer to the line. I can afford to go a month without activating OKH, so I activate it a second time and railmove AGCentre forwards.
I don't do anything in the north because it will give me 2 HQs at a III next turn, which will save on overall activations.
In the end, this turns out to be a quiet fortnight. I order combat to proceed without support in Leningrad SE1, where infantry(4CV) and armour(4CV) are up against a single soviet 1CV infantry, and have to face an unsupported river assault at Kremenchug. I don't like the latter, but I have to keep forcing Alec back if I want to capture the Ukraine production cities this season.
I step up all 5 HQs, and augment 2 infantry units.
September I 1941-Centre(III Blitz), North(III)
It's getting close to crunch time, and I don't think I've done enough damage to the Russian army to put them out of commission. Worse, my HQs are too dispersed, which makes it unlikely that I'll be able to secure any of the three key objectives. However, I still have some time, and a lot of good units.
In the south, I try encircle two major cities which I should be able to starve out before winter, but the damned 1CV infantry holds in the initial attack. In the north and centre I move up closer, threatening to encircle either Moscow or Leningrad, or maybe both. However, I expect that I'll move away in September II, and put some space between me and the Russians for the winter.
In the blitz phase, I push forwards and engage with armour. Risky, but if I can scare Alec back, or punch a hole, a lot of units will be in trouble.
September II 1941-AGSouth(III Blitz), AGNorth(II), AGRum(II)
Time for one last push to see what I can take this turn. I think I can put Leningrad out of supply, which might soften it up enough to take next year. I also think I can take or surround three cities in the south. However, to put Dnepropetrovsk and Zaprodzhye out of supply, I have to risk a river assault. Luckily I manage to get in and destroy the unit in Kremenchug, and I also take Odessa at last. In the north I'm not so lucky, and I fail to destroy a single unit, preventing me from cutting supply to Leningrad. Hopefully I get a dry turn in October.
I leave AGRum unaugmented. I don't think it'll be as useful as the extra 3 steps of infantry it gives me in the north.
October I 1941-Stakva (III)
Mud. I'm getting cut to shreds at Leningrad, so I use my four Stavka moves to pull out there, and to cut the supply to the three hexes around Bryansk.
October II 1941-No Activations
Mud again. Nothing happens on either side.
This is the last production phase before the end of the scenario. I get my HQs up to full strength and add 3 steps of infantry. My reinforcement pile in Lublin has been growing steadily (2 full strength infantry, 1 full strength mech), so I should have some units in reserve for possible Soviet counterattacks this winter.
November I 1941-Stavka(III), North(III)
Snow. I move up my fresh units to near Moscow, and close to Leningrad.
I lost an armour unit to one of Alec's shock armies, which is painful, but not life threatening.
November II 1941-South(III), Centre(III)
I'm in trouble. I lose a mech unit this turn. That's another 2 VP I'm down.
I move back away from Alec's dangerous units in the south, and attack Kharkov, hoping to make my 4VP back. In the north I make another assault on Leningrad. If I pay enough for it, I'll get it eventually. Maybe.
I end up not getting Kharkov, and I don't do any damage to Leningrad.
I haven't hurt Alec enough, I think. This is probably a Soviet Major.
Soviet Marginal +15. I only had 11 destroyed Soviet units at game end (with 2 destroyed and one restricted German unit).
The problem here is clear. Despite good luck in the north, I didn't keep my HQs and units concentrated enough and I ended up moving the Russians without destroying them. This came back to bite me when the snow hit. A lesson in logistics was learned here.