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Subject: [Fantasy Geekbowl] Shattered rss

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Randy Cox
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My view of the BGGverse is shattered. The agony. I was sure that when two games are pitted against one another in the Fantasy Geekbowl competition, if a voter knows only one of the games, s/he'll vote for the one they are familiar with (assuming they like that game). But based on the voting so far, it appears that a lot of people will skip over such a contest.

For instance, I own Power Grid. It's up against the formidable Railroad Tycoon (and winning handily, I might add). But 23 people haven't even bothered to vote in that matchup. Either 23 people have never heard of both these games or a sizable number of people are very conflicted and just can't decide which is better.

Likewise, Acquire and Louis XIV are up against one another. Now, I'll concede that a lot may not have an opinion about LXIV, but Acquire? Everyone has heard of it, right? It's been around almost as long as I have. Yet, 37 people haven't chimed in on that contest. I can only assume that some fraction of people just don't want to vote against a game they don't know about, because maybe just maybe it's better than the game they are familiar with.

So, my strategy is shot and it's looking like I'll go down to the Ugly Americans in the very first round. The humanity of it all. But enough of that.

My prognostications aren't nearly as accurate as I'd like. That's what I get for allowing raw average to creep into the equation. I probably should have stuck with just plain ol' rank. :)

Anyhoo, of the 168 pairings in the 8 divisions, I've correctly guessed 124 of them, or about 74%. And when my confidence is higher than 60, I'm coming along at a 67.5% accuracy clip. Above 70 and it's 81%. The problem is with those pesky "too close to call" matchups. In the 36 pairings where my confidence was between 50 and 60, I'm piss poor (17 right, 19 wrong).

So what are the major upsets?

Division A: It's not an upset, but somehow Love Boat, projected to win no games in the match, has claimed 3 of the 7 at this time. Now, Pig Tickler has only a slim edge over Razzle Dazzle, so it could end up as a 5-2 loss. Nonetheless, the "joke" team is doing quite nicely.

Division B: I had predicted that our team from Iceland would win by a 5-2 margin. But in fact, Arkham Asylum is currently leading 5-1. All is not lost, though. Iceland's Hive is tied with Magic and could win that one and Werewolf and Liar's Dice are but 4 and 2 votes behind Tumblin Dice and Titan, respectively. So Isafjordur could still pull it off and save a little face for me. :)

Division C: If Age of Steam can muster one more vote than TI3 over the rest of the round (ending Friday), then I'll still have predicted Grandma Tsar's victory, though much closer than I would have imagined. The bigger humiliation is with my own Clemson Vagrants, predicted to win by a 7-0 margin. And unless my Get Out the LotR Vote tactic pulls off a miracle (to defeat Formula D, not Formula De), I will go down by a tally of 3-4 to those Ugly Americans.

Division D: Here, I seem to have misjudged the power of Calm Fluffy Bunnies. I just plain expected Jigglypuff to eke this one out. But as of now, the rabbits hold a 6-1 advantage. The hope Mr. Jiggles can cling to is that Time's Up, Kinsburg, and Ys are losing by only 5, 1, and 10 votes.

Division E: I see no significant issues here, as I've got them all right so far. The closest to an upset we have is OneAndAQuarter's ability to somehow win 3 games at this time against Sheepbeaters (three more than I expected). However, to claim victory, Jungle Speed or Red November will have to make up a 24-vote deficit against Risk or Vegas Showdown, respectively.

Division F: I'm not doin' too well here. I've got only one match right at this time. Rock 'Em Sock 'Em is hanging on to the upset bid by a margin of 3 votes (Ubongo over Aladdin's Dragons). If Aladdin can pull off just a little magic, I'll get this one right and Powersquid will breathe a sigh of relief. In the other unexpected match, Team Mate is holding up better than expected against Elmhurst. Two of my very narrow picks are turning out opposite results as Shadows over Camelot leads Indonesia and Roll Through the Ages leads China by reasonably comfortable margins.

Division G: Nothing surprising here. I guess the most startling thing is that The Business is doing even better against Dustin than expected, what with Zooloretto whomping up on HeroScape.

Division H: Oh, my. I expected War and Rumors of War to be a big-time playah in this contest, but they are remarkably losing to the Backwood Sheep Screwers 1-6 at this time. The light turnout at the polls means that Clark is really only losing by vote counts of 7, 3, and 5 in the closest matches currently swinging towards the beastiality team. Not only must Wilderness War come back against Kings & Things, but either Bonaparte at Morengo or Liberte must thump Cartagena or Adel Verpflichtet. It's not impossible, but...

Overall, I'm now at 16-8 on the matches, not a stellar rating, though one of those "wrong guesses" is currently a 3-3 tie (Grandma's Tsar against Star Force).
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Kent Fletcher
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Quote:
Division A: It's not an upset, but somehow Love Boat, projected to win no games in the match, has claimed 3 of the 7 at this time. Now, Pig Tickler has only a slim edge over Razzle Dazzle, so it could end up as a 5-2 loss. Nonetheless, the "joke" team is doing quite nicely.


Too True, however please notice that Gigglepants was only trailing by 1 vote last I checked so this could just as easily come out as a win for LOVE BOAT.
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Jonathan Morton
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Were your predictions made entirely by formula, or did you make some judgement calls to override your formulas?

And on a related note, did you derive and follow a formula for the bidding stages of Geekball? I compiled a spreadsheet with ranking and popularity data, but narrowed it down and came up with bid amounts by feel.
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Randy Cox
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The predictions were purely by formula. I didn't use a spreadsheet until the second round of bidding and then only to divine which remaining games were "good bets." Mostly, I did it because I had to find out which games were remaining other than those in the Top 30. And by the time I'd pulled down all manager's games (up to that point), I had to go the step further and gather all the final rosters, too.
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Dominic Crapuchettes
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Wow, the first real GeekBall commentary episode! I like it.


Randy Cox wrote:
So, my strategy is shot and it's looking like I'll go down to the Ugly Americans in the very first round. The humanity of it all. But enough of that.


Time: 10:43am EST
Score: LotR 130, Formula D 131

All is not yet lost for you...
 
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Jonathan Morton
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Evidently some strange swings are possible. Earlier this morning Puerto Rico was losing to Galaxy Trucker 58 - 63. 10 votes later it is winning 67 - 64.
 
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Dominic Crapuchettes
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Jonny5 wrote:
Evidently some strange swings are possible. Earlier this morning Puerto Rico was losing to Galaxy Trucker 58 - 63. 10 votes later it is winning 67 - 64.


I hereby motion that Killer Whale Tank is disqualified from the first season of Fantasy GeekBall for rigging the voting (and for most possibly being a witch). All in favor, say "Aye!"
 
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Randy Cox
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Update (Thursday morning):

More votes are coming in, so I retallied everything and here are some interesting factiods:

- 84% is the highest score of any pairing at this time (In the Year of the Dragon over Fat Sam)

- Other 80%+ games are Carcassonne (over Between the Sheets), Hey That's My Fish (over Feeley Meeley), 1960 (over Axiom)

- 13 matches are currently in a state where the "winning" game has less than 51% of the vote; 8 are runaways with more than 75% going to the leader

- The average pairing has a score of 60%-40%

- I'm now 16-8 with matches and 126-42 with pairings

- Contests separated by 1 vote or less: Wizard Kings vs. Manoeuvre, Wilderness War vs. Kings & Things (and two others in that match with a difference of 2), High Society vs. Android, Crusader Rex vs Battletech (tie), Poison vs Time's Up and in the same match TTR: Nordic vs Kinsburg (tied), Lord of the Rings vs Formula D, Age of Steam vs. TI3, Puerto Rico vs Galaxy Trucker, Bohnanza vs. TTR: Europe and in the same match Magic vs. Hive, Star Wars Epic Duels vs. Betrayal at House on the Hill.

- That's 11 games separated by 1 or 0 votes (and 11 more decided by 2, 3, or 4 votes). I think the matchup-based-on-bid seems to be making for some tight battles.
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Randy Cox
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domcrap wrote:
Wow, the first real GeekBall commentary episode! I like it. :D


Randy Cox wrote:
So, my strategy is shot and it's looking like I'll go down to the Ugly Americans in the very first round. The humanity of it all. But enough of that.


Time: 10:43am EST
Score: LotR 130, Formula D 131

All is not yet lost for you...
Update: 11:07 am EDT...

LotR 132, Formula D 130 (yep, it lost a vote).

Maybe the education campaign has shown some voters that they are NOT voting for the beloved Formula De but instead have been duped into voting for an imposture.

Boy, I'll be glad when we do this again and Tony institutes the rule for no similarly named games (or reprints or gravy trainers etc). But until then, all you LotR fans...VOTE ON!
 
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Jonathan Morton
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domcrap wrote:
Jonny5 wrote:
Evidently some strange swings are possible. Earlier this morning Puerto Rico was losing to Galaxy Trucker 58 - 63. 10 votes later it is winning 67 - 64.


I hereby motion that Killer Whale Tank is disqualified from the first season of Fantasy GeekBall for rigging the voting (and for most possibly being a witch). All in favor, say "Aye!"


Argh! How foolish of me to have drawn attention to my own vote rigging!
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Jonathan Morton
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Quote:
Boy, I'll be glad when we do this again and Tony institutes the rule for no similarly named games (or reprints or gravy trainers etc).


Dude, that's a big part of the fun of the game - finding the sneaky games for cheap.

Quote:
I think the matchup-based-on-bid seems to be making for some tight battles.


Probably helps. There are definitely some quirks, tho - my lineup goes something like 1 2 5 3 6 4 7 in terms of how strong I think my games are for this competition.
 
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Randy Cox
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Randy Cox wrote:
domcrap wrote:
Wow, the first real GeekBall commentary episode! I like it. :D


Randy Cox wrote:
So, my strategy is shot and it's looking like I'll go down to the Ugly Americans in the very first round. The humanity of it all. But enough of that.


Time: 10:43am EST
Score: LotR 130, Formula D 131

All is not yet lost for you...
Update: 11:07 am EDT...

LotR 132, Formula D 130 (yep, it lost a vote).

Uh oh, 2:00 pm and were down 135-145. An education campaign by my opponent? :)
 
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Patrick Korner
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The Ugly Americans were able to mobilize the Thrift Vote...

pk
 
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