David Molnar
United States
Ridgewood
New Jersey
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If you're playing Race for the Galaxy solo, and the bot has two credit, so you figure it's OK to choose Develop, what is the probability that the bot will roll Explore, thus allowing it to buy the 6-cost Development anyway?
 
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Todd McCorkle
United States
Anderson
Indiana
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*dusts off probability calculations area of brain*

Looking at the dice, there is only 1 side that has the explore icon, so the chance would be 1/6 (16.6%)

If the robot is playing Separatist colony (? world 5), where the robot icon is also explore (2 robots on the non-explore die), the chance increases to 1 - (4/6 * 5/6) = 16/36 = 4/9 = 44.4% (ie, 1 - the chance both dice don't roll explore).

I feel compelled to point out, that you better also take an action after develop, otherwise a wild roll will match your develop which will only require 2 credits for the robot. Looking at the explore die again, 2 sides are develop, 2 sides are wild, and 1 is explore, so the robot would have a 5/6 chance of getting the 6 dev chit with this die alone, although you really couldn't do anything about the 1/3 chance of a natural develop anyway.
 
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Shameless plug for my own creation:

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/filepage/41808
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Daniel Cristofani
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Portland
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kusinohki wrote:
I feel compelled to point out, that you better also take an action after develop, otherwise a wild roll will match your develop which will only require 2 credits for the robot.


Even if you do choose an action after develop, there's a chance that the robot will either roll wild on both dice (1/18 or 5.6% chance) or independently roll your second action so that the wild will match your develop anyway (another 1/18 for consume or produce, or 1/36 for Settle; and more if your second action is whatever the robot action is, so don't do that.)

Edit: grammar.
 
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