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Subject: Fantasy Geekball: Week 5 RESULTS: Group Stage is COMPLETE rss

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Tony Ackroyd
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Here are the results for Week 5 of Fantasy Geekball.
Thanks to all of those who voted. This was the final week of the group stage and the importance of some of the matches was marked by another increase in votes. Also likely that the focus on commentary brought in more voters, so thanks to all who added commentary!
The hottest group was Group C, as it has been for the whole competition, with 112 voters contributing. Overall 14,474 votes were cast.
If you have somehow missed out on hearing about Fantasy Geekball there are a load of lists and threads around. Start -> here

Group A
Love Boat 0 - 7 The Pyongyang Floppy Missiles
Axis of Evil 4 - 3 Abstract Strategy Stars (ASS)
AbStrat Hotspurs 2 - 5 Team Rocket

Team Rocket secure qualification with this win and Pyongyang make it 5/5 wins
Disappointingly few people wanted to Do the Urkel or get their Gigglepants on so this is the last we will see of Love Boat...or is it....?
Axis of Evil get a consolation win, kicking ASS

Group B
The Randy Dandies 0 - 7 Daniel's Shelf
Isafjordur GC 2 - 5 Killer Whale Tank
Arkham Asylum Inmates 5 - 2 Wrede's of the Lost Ark

Isafjordur GC were holding off Killer Whale Tank for a significant part of the match and were even winning after 24 hours, but quality (or pure brutal power) told in the end and Killer Whale Tank win the group with a clean sweep
So Daniel's Shelf take 2nd, not bad considering they were bottom of the group after week 1 (when they played KWT)!
Inmates finish strongly, while Randy Dandies enjoy their last week of punishment...

Group C
Star Force 5 - 2 The Clemson Vagrants
Grandma's Tsar Bomba 3 - 2 Agonizing Gems
Alpha Strike 0 - 7 Ugly Americans

Clemson Vagrants had to win to ensure 2nd, but they failed to do so despite a convincing early lead
Fortunately for The Vagrants, Agonizing Gems did not take advantage of this weakness and where a win for them would have stolen 2nd they snatched a defeat at the last minute
Two more votes would have been enough to take the Gems through as 2 boards were drawn in their match. Agonizing is the word.
Ugly Americans are the 3rd table-topping team to have won all their matches

Group D
The Troublemakers 2 - 4 The Rebellion
The Calm Fluffy Bunnies 3 - 4 Team MENSA
Jigglypuffs 2 - 4 The Bullseyes

This final week was astonishing. Going into it 3 teams were tied on points for 2nd, Troublemakers, Rebellion and Team MENSA.
It was going to come down to who won the Troublemakers vs Rebellion match, with Team MENSA able to steal it on goal difference if they demolished Fluffy Bunnies.
As the matches went on the lead changed many times, with most of the time The Troublemakers being in line for qualification, with Team MENSA taking it the rest of the time. But in the closing hours The Rebellion stormed the Troublemaker stronghold and took 2nd place in the group with some style.
Bullseyes found Jigglypuffs a tough opponent, but eventually emerged victorious to seal 5/5 wins and the group

Group E
Team Cobra Kai 3 - 3 Sheepbeaters
RubberNips 1 - 6 The Cult of the Mostly New
OneAndAQuarter 4 - 3 The Fellowship

Sheepbeaters had already won the group so maybe they didn't take Team Cobra Kai seriously, a few roundhouse kicks later and Sheepbeaters 100% record was history
It was either RubberNips or The Cult who would take 2nd, with The Cult needing to win, while a draw would be enough for RubberNips
In the end it was never close. The Cult took an early grip on the match and held it till the end.
OneAndAQuarter's last week win keeps them off the bottom of the table

Group F
The Montreal Basements 2 - 5 Elmhurst (Ends in) A's.
Rock'em Sock'em Geekbots 4 - 3 Out of Print Masters
Powersquid 4 - 3 Team Mate

Going in to this final week 4 teams could qualify: Team Mate, Geekbots, Masters & Powersquid. They were to battle for it for the whole of the match
In the end Powersquid beat the odds and the unbeaten Team Mate, which they needed to do to have a chance
Geekbots defeated Masters just barely, but with not enough goals to take 2nd
In the final tally Powersquid snuck by Out Of Print Masters with a 2 point superior goal difference.

Group G
The TOP 10 4 - 3 The Business
Team Brazil 6 - 1 Dustin's Team
Flirting With Disaster 3 - 4 The Pawn Stars

The winner of Top 10 vs The Business would qualify and if Pawn Stars lost then could snatch top spot.
It was an incredible battle with the lead changing several times. In the end The TOP 10 won by a single vote!
It seemed like Pawn Stars were treating the Flirts like a training match. They were to regret this and it was close until the final votes were counted.
Team Brazil won their final match to lift themselves off the bottom of the table and regain some pride for their nation. Stick to soccer...!

Group H
Kitty Tilly's Ninja Kittens 5 - 2 Wars and Rumors of War
Fantasy Flight Flyer 6 - 1 Superfluous Supercilious Seven
Backwoods Sheep Screwers 6 - 1 The Wargamer's Heaven

Wargamers Heaven could have qualified if they could defeat the group leader, Screwers, but that was not to be
This meant any of Heaven, The Flyers or Ninja Kittens could qualify on goal difference
In the early stages Kittens were slicing up Rumors of War, while FFF were making tought going of seeing off SSS, but this didn't last....
Both FFF and Ninja Kittens won, with FFF stealing qualification by a single goal!

'A' Home Advantage?
'B' teams got slightly more votes than 'A's this week 52%-48%.
Overall I'd say there probably is a very slight home advantage of maybe 1%, but many other factors are much more important.

The playoff stage will probably begin on Monday. Here are the tables after Week 5 and the completion of the group stage:



Since several of the groups were extremely close and I know some of you are running your own stats on the competition I would appreciate my results being checked. If any errors are detected after the playoffs begin then it will be too late.....
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Tony Ackroyd
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Benchwarmer Big Brother

The final 'group elimination' evictions took place this week and the following games were evicted. The number is the number of votes they got:

42 Scripts and Scribes
36 In the Shadow of the Emperor
34 Flat Top
34 Luftwaffe
31 Octopus
31 Quarto
30 Conquest of the Empire
25 Automobile

The games had all their components mixed up with all the other losers, the resulting mix was shared evenly between the boxes, which were given to thrift stores and marked 'complete'.

Automobile was unlucky, not only did it get the least votes of the losers, but it tied with another of its group, "A Castle for All Seasons". I checked the previous week where Automobile had got more votes, so out it goes....
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Randy Cox
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Hmmm. Of my predictions before we started, I got only 8 of the 16 playoff teams right. But...

Of the 8 "wrong" picks, four of the surprise teams were pumped up by the Ancient and Loyal Order of Thrifters. That's quite a show of power by that guild. Of course, it has 372 members. Who could have known?
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Tony Ackroyd
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Here are the remaining BBB games by group and their proud owning team:

A Pueblo - Abstract Strategy Stars (ASS)
A Pikemen - AbStrat Hotspurs
B Colossal Arena - Arkham Asylum Inmates
B Saboteur - Killer Whale Tank
C Airships - Agonizing Gems
C Powerboats - Agonizing Gems
D Capitol - Jigglypuffs
D The Red Dragon Inn - The Calm Fluffy Bunnies
E Omega Virus - Team Cobra Kai
E A Castle For All Seasons - The Cult of the Mostly New
F Mexica - Elmhurst (Ends in) A's.
F Odin's Ravens - Powersquid
G Machiavelli - Team Brazil
G Kingdoms - The TOP 10
H Scotland Yard - Kitty Tilly's Ninja Kittens
H Perikles - The Wargamer's Heaven

Congratulations to Agonizing Gems, some consolation for their near-qualification, getting 2 games through BBB.
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myles
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I would think the same things, however I really have no idea how many of them are voting. Personally I heavily toned down the campainging with them myself, because I was getting some negative feeback.

Also, one of their most popular members "Pmboos" of the Abstract Strategy Stars was also the most vocal of campaigners, even giving away real games to spark interest in voting. His team fell flat despite having good games and supposed block voting. If anyone would have ridden such a tide, I'd have thought Paul would. I certainly expected him to go past qualification.
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And now the match-up we were all dying to see, the battle of the two lowest scoring teams, but certainly not the lowest fun:

Poll
A: Love Boat vs. B: The Randy Dandies
  A B Vote Count
A: Do the Urkel vs. B: Between The Sheets 57.1% (20) 42.9% (15) 35
A: Monkey Auto Races vs. B: Booze, Boobs and Boners 66.7% (24) 33.3% (12) 36
A: Pig Tickler vs. B: Busen Memo 44.4% (16) 55.6% (20) 36
A: Gigglepants vs. B: Dirty Minds - The Game of Naughty Clues 58.8% (20) 41.2% (14) 34
A: Feeley Meeley vs. B: Erotic Adventure 55.9% (19) 44.1% (15) 34
A: Snifty Snakes vs. B: Mongolian Goat Rodeo 42.9% (15) 57.1% (20) 35
A: Turtle Butt vs. B: Project Pornstar 52.9% (18) 47.1% (16) 34
Total Voters 36
This poll is now closed.   36 answers
Poll created by 1000rpm
Closes: Mon Jun 8, 2009 6:00 am
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Marc Bosch
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Tony, I'm the owner and manager of the great and mythical "Out of Print Masters" but I have to say that if I'm not wrong, we did not get the second place in group F. There is a tie in points between OOP Masters and Powersquid, but they have better goal average.

Out of Print Masters has 19 goals for and 16 against
Powersquid has 20 for and 15 against.

So yes, we beat Powersquid, but at the end we have the same number of points and they have better Average difference.

It's a pitty but we are no there.

Anyway, we will be back for the next edition of the cup. Maybe by then, some of our best players will not be in the team anymore (they will be again on the shelves) but we hope to recruit new games and we are sure that they will fight until dead (or until being reprinted again).

Thanks any way Tony for the effort.

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Erik D
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True to my promise before the regular season started, Mongolean Goat Rodeo got my vote every time.
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Mike Jones
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Well, that was an nail biting game last week, I almost didn't even look Thursday morning.

So, are you seeding by wins and then by difference?

And doing 1v16 etc?
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Tony Ackroyd
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mboschbo wrote:

Tony, I'm the owner and manager of the great and mythical "Out of Print Masters" but I have to say that if I'm not wrong, we did not get the second place in group F. There is a tie in points between OOP Masters and Powersquid, but they have better goal average.

Out of Print Masters has 19 goals for and 16 against
Powersquid has 20 for and 15 against.

So yes, we beat Powersquid, but at the end we have the same number of points and they have better Average difference.

It's a pitty but we are no there.

Anyway, we will be back for the next edition of the cup. Maybe by then, some of our best players will not be in the team anymore (they will be again on the shelves) but we hope to recruit new games and we are sure that they will fight until dead (or until being reprinted again).

Thanks any way Tony for the effort.


I've checked and you are completely correct. blush
I'd transposed the goals on your last game.
Sorry guys! I'll update the above table and commentary.
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Tony Ackroyd
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So what if we combined all the results into one big table? Who were the teams who suffered by the group they ended up in?



Axis of Evil and The Business look to have been most unlucky. Clemson Vagrants sneak in by the skin of their teeth.
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Tony Ackroyd
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Lets give these teams a send-off match they deserve:

Poll
A: Axis of Evil vs. B: The Business
  A B Vote Count
A: Betrayal at House on the Hill vs. B: Brass 54.1% (20) 45.9% (17) 37
A: Witch's Brew vs. B: 1856 53.1% (17) 46.9% (15) 32
A: Fury of Dracula vs. B: Zooloretto 53.8% (21) 46.2% (18) 39
A: Fearsome Floors vs. B: Winner's Circle 41.2% (14) 58.8% (20) 34
A: A Touch of Evil Supernatural Game vs. B: Aquaretto 45.9% (17) 54.1% (20) 37
A: Ghost Stories vs. B: Colosseum 34.3% (12) 65.7% (23) 35
A: Werewolves of Miller's Hollow vs. B: Steel Driver 52.6% (20) 47.4% (18) 38
Total Voters 41
This poll is now closed.   41 answers
Poll created by 1000rpm
Closes: Mon Jun 8, 2009 6:00 am


Also Out of Print Masters and Ninja Kittens were the closest to qualifying but missed out at the last minute:

Poll
A: Out of Print Masters vs. B: Kitty Tilly's Ninja Kittens
  A B Vote Count
A: Paths of Glory vs. B: Modern Art 52.6% (20) 47.4% (18) 38
A: Here I Stand vs. B: Vinci 35.1% (13) 64.9% (24) 37
A: Antiquity vs. B: Battle Cry 26.5% (9) 73.5% (25) 34
A: The Republic of Rome vs. B: Railway Rivals 65.6% (21) 34.4% (11) 32
A: Web of Power vs. B: DungeonQuest 47.1% (16) 52.9% (18) 34
A: History of the world vs. B: Gulo Gulo 55.6% (20) 44.4% (16) 36
A: Pax Romana vs. B: High Society 50.0% (17) 50.0% (17) 34
Total Voters 40
This poll is now closed.   40 answers
Poll created by 1000rpm
Closes: Mon Jun 8, 2009 6:00 am
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1000rpm wrote:
So what if we combined all the results into one big table? Who were the teams who suffered by the group they ended up in?


On the combined table, the Geekbots are ahead of a team who got in (Vagrants), but we still wouldn't have made the top 16.
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Tony Ackroyd
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Seeding analysis

Q: So, of the Top 16 seeds how many made it through to the last 16?
A: 12, which included all 8 of the Top 8 seeds.

Wars and Rumors of War was the highest seeded team not to make it, seeded #9.

Powersquid at #27 (out of 48) was the lowest seeded team to qualify.

So the seeding seemed to be a fairly accurate predictor of quality.

Backwoods Sheep Screwers was the 'poor boy done good', seeded #25 and won all 5 matches, topping their group.
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Marc Bosch
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Group F claims the "Group of the death" Tittle! Four teams above 6 points and a triple tai in the second place.

Besides, First of the group was defeated by the second, the second was defeated by the third, the third was defeated by the fourth. and guess what, the fourth was defeated by the fifth (Elmursth, ends in A)!
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Best managers so far, winning 5/5 matches and topping their groups, sorted by goal difference:

myles
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Ugly Americans

Jonathan Morton
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Vällingby
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Killer Whale Tank

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Amity
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Backwoods Sheep Screwers

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The Pyongyang Floppy Missiles

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The Bullseyes

Murray Grelis
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The Pawn Stars
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Other qualifying managers, sorted by points and then goal difference

Daniel Smith
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Sheepbeaters

Tom Janiszewski
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Team Mate

Benjamine Allen
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Grand Ledge
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Team Rocket

Mike Jones
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The TOP 10

Daniel Smith
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Daniel's Shelf

Leif Steiestol
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The Cult of the Mostly New

Max Pips
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Fantasy Flight Flyers

John Squires
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Powersquid

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The Rebellion

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The Clemson Vagrants
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Did Randomness Help?

8 randomized teams got through to the last 16. 9 randomized teams did not. Considering with 16/48 getting through we'd have expected 5 or 6 random teams to get through so it looks like randomness may have helped.

This is probably nowhere near statistically valid though as I put a lot of the random teams together in 2 groups, so 4/12 of those got through and we are only left with a sample of 5 other teams, of which 4 made it through to the qualifying stage.
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Did Themed Teams Fare Worse?

I count 22 themed teams, with varying levels of theme. Of those 6 qualified where we would have expected 7 or 8 (a third) to make it. So initially it looks at first like themes hurt your chances.

But if we exclude the extreme themed teams (The Fellowship, Love Boat and Randy Dandies) which didn't seem to appeal to the BGG voting community, we are down to 6 qualifying out of 19, which is pretty much a 1 in 3 success rate, which is what we'd expect from a random sample (as a third of teams make it to the playoffs).
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Guantanamo wrote:
Well, that was an nail biting game last week, I almost didn't even look Thursday morning.

So, are you seeding by wins and then by difference?

And doing 1v16 etc?

No, there is no seeding for the knockout stage. The who-plays-who was set out before the group stage started:

The group winners will play a runner up from another group, and then play each other like this:

wA v rB \
wH v rG / winner \

wE v rF \
wD v rC / winner / winner \ Champion

wC v rD \
wF v rH / winner \ winner /

wG v rE \
wB v rA / winner /

The way this draw is set up the original top 2 seeds (assuming they win all the way through) won't meet until the final. The original top 4 seeds are in different quarters of the draw, so can't meet until the semis. Finally the 2 teams who qualify from each group go into different halves of the draw, so you won't play them again - unless you both get to the final!

It won't work exactly like that as some of the top seeds didn't win their groups.

Heres the pretty picture which I'll populate once I'm sure I haven't made any other mistakes....



There will be one of these for BBB, too.
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Well, it appears that the Clemson Vagrants have *earned* nothing more than the very last seed in the playoffs. By pre-arrangement, that means I take on the Bullseyes.

It appears this will be a difficult task.

The Bullseyes have two games which have yet to suffer a defeat (Race for the Galaxy and Steam). In fact, the "worst" game on Team Bullseye is Mykerinos, having won only 2 of 5 contests, yet it still earned 52.1% of all votes cast in those 5 matches.

On the other side, the Vagrants have two games which haven't sniffed victory (Louis XIV and ShowManager). Also, four of the seven games didn't even get half of all votes cast in the five matches (Hannibal and Taj Mahal are the extras).

It's a sobering analysis I'm looking at. If you give equal credit to each game's W/L record and their vote ratio over all five weeks, here's the percentage chances of winning, roughly.

Imperial (51.5%) over Power Grid (I trust this to be an abberation)
Race for the Galaxy (59.6) over Hannibal
Through the Desert (55.1) over Taj Mahal
Mykerinos (79.8) over Louis XIV
Funkenschlag loses to Wits & Wagers (52.3)
Struggle of Empires loses to Lord of the Rings (44.2)
Steam (80.2) over ShowManager

Now, I think that giving equal credit to each game's W/L record (of which I have two 0/5) might be a bit of overkill. But even ignoring W/L altogether, I gain only one more victory (Power Grid).

It will take a considerable turnout from Thrift Nation to carry me to victory. Did I mention that I joined that guild this week? :)
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Randy Cox wrote:

It will take a considerable turnout from Thrift Nation to carry me to victory. Did I mention that I joined that guild this week?


So did I. Nobody is more thrifty than Pyongyang!

Actually I have scored a few excellent games at unusual (ie not FLGS) places, including Pax Brittanica and James Clavell's Tai-Pan.

And I enjoyed pmboos trashtalking immensely!
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Thanks to everyone for such a fun season. I really had a good time with this. When I get home from vacation on Monday, I will see who wins the free game. Cheers!
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erak wrote:
True to my promise before the regular season started, Mongolean Goat Rodeo got my vote every time.

Thanks for your support!
I need to pick up a copy of that game, as they were one of the only somewhat-strong games on my team.
 
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