Rob Neuhaus
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I've started analyzing games from the unofficial online race implementation. The first juicy statistic, the winning rate of various homeworlds. Most of these games are for 2 player, and many were played without goals. The data..

[('Alpha Centauri', 1.1071149335418293, 213.16666666666671),
('Ancient Race', 1.0268292682926825, 205.00000000000009),
('Damaged Alien Factory', 1.0236024844720495, 201.25000000000003),
("Earth's Lost Colony", 1.0112630732099754, 207.16666666666677),
('Epsilon Eridani', 0.99999999999999978, 214.50000000000006),
('Separatist Colony', 0.98619824341279838, 132.83333333333329),
('New Sparta', 0.97605473204104853, 219.25000000000011),
('Doomed world', 0.93160259610584117, 166.91666666666669),
('Old Earth', 0.91863727454909749, 207.91666666666683)]

Alpha crushes the competition, having a winning rate of 1.1. If this were only games from 2 player games, it would mean it wins about 55% of its games.

You can grab the code here. There are many other interesting things that could be computed quite easily, I'll probably have some followup posts.

svn checkout http://rftgstats.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/genie_analysis rftgstats-read-only

Edit from 2 months after this was posted: There is a whole lot more data, and its better presented at http://rftgstats.com
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Benoît Delcorps
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I allways tought Alpha Centauri was the best homeworld to start with, and that Old Earth was probably the worst.

Nice the stats confirm my feelings were right !

BTW, thank you for your inputs... which are very interesting ! And also thnaks again to the designer of the genie game server, whose database will soon become a gem mine for significant statistics and analysis
 
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Simon Harris
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Benwa wrote:
And also thanks again to the designer of the genie game server, whose database will soon become a gem mine for significant statistics and analysis

... and whose inbox full of feedback will provide a valuable resource for the designers of the eventual 'official' RftG Online implementation.
cool

Simon
 
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Benwa wrote:
I allways tought Alpha Centauri was the best homeworld to start with, and that Old Earth was probably the worst.

Nice the stats confirm my feelings were right !


In my 211 plays with recorded homeworld, ACe has my highest winrate (81%), and OE has my 2nd worst (64%).
 
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Serge Levert
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Also, OE is not necessarily the worst, but it's certainly one of the hardest to play well.
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entranced wrote:
Also, OE is not necessarily the worst, but it's certainly one of the hardest to play well.


This is likely one of the reasons it has the lowest win rate. It really isn't that bad, it just is a little bit harder to figure out how to use it properly at first, unlike AC, which is somewhat straightforward.
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I'm surprised to see Old Earth at the bottom. It's slower, but you actually have a sustainable empire instead of 4 production worlds and two consume powers.

Don't get why Epsilon Eridani is in the middle of the pack. That's a trashy world and it should be fighting Doomed World for the bottom of the barrel. Does particularly bad against the two windfalls.

Still, that's pretty good balance. 46% win rate for the "worst" world and 55% win rate for the best is okay with me. It all evens out in the long run and the starting world variety is one of the reasons why I still love this game.
 
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Everett Scheer
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hmm, this is different from my experiences, but I guess that's a good thing. I abhor Ancient Race, yet it seems to be second best. DAF gets chosen a lot by my group yet from the stats I've colected it does quite poorly. OE does a lot better ranking wise, ELC is king (followed by SC)and NS wins the fewest.
 
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Brian Preston
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How did this data analysis come about? Did you just work with the author of the genie site for access to the database? I thought he said it was written in some form of c, and this analysis is written in Java, isn't it? I just took a quick look at the svn src. I realize the same person could write both, I just figured they wouldn't do it in different languages.
 
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Rob Neuhaus
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The analysis is actually in python. A lot of the java there was a frontend my friend was writting for inputting games by hand, but I don't know if I am actually going to finish that part up, because I doubt I could get the same quality and quantity of data from random people submitting forms on the web.

I contacted the author of the site and asked him for permission to scrape the HTML pages. From there, I just parse the game state into a nice little data structure included in the subversion server.
 
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Fascinating analysis, nice to see how well balanced the homeworlds are.

I would be very interested to see the winrates of tableaus that include 'overpowered' cards such as Alien Toy Shop and Terraforming Guild.
 
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1700 games? Jesus.
 
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SanguinousRex wrote:
1700 games?
These are from the online implementation as stated above. rrenaud has merely played 1000 games.

SanguinousRex wrote:
Jesus.
Has probably played many more times as I'm sure they have R4tG in heaven.
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Here is a ranking for all cards, based on 2600 games, all of which are two player. Note that Doomed World, New Military Tactics and Colony Ship are penalized unfairly by this metric (since it only counts surviving cards, if you have DW left, you probably screwed something up..).

The rightmost number is the expected number of wins. The actual number of wins / Expected number of wins is the number in the second column.

[('Terraforming Guild', 1.3990536277602523, 317.0),
('New Economy', 1.296875, 128.0),
('Imperium Lords', 1.2441860465116279, 129.0),
('Smuggling Lair', 1.2261029411764706, 272.0),
('Galactic Federation', 1.2255489021956087, 250.5),
('Refugee World', 1.2125984251968505, 127.0),
('Alien Toy Shop', 1.2010471204188482, 477.5),
('Galactic Survey SETI', 1.1782477341389728, 165.5),
('Galactic Renaissance', 1.1781609195402298, 87.0),
('Runaway Robots', 1.1673306772908367, 251.0),
('Mining League', 1.1671469740634006, 173.5),
('Free Trade Association', 1.165644171779141, 163.0),
('Galactic Studios', 1.1481481481481481, 256.5),
('Reptilian Uplift Race', 1.1470588235294117, 221.0),
('Deserted Alien Library', 1.1461794019933556, 150.5),
('Improved Logistics', 1.1447368421052631, 380.0),
('Rebel Warrior Race', 1.1417004048582995, 247.0),
('Alien Tech Institute', 1.1284916201117319, 179.0),
('Galactic Imperium', 1.1278195488721805, 133.0),
('Rebel Colony', 1.1274131274131274, 129.5),
('New Earth', 1.125, 276.0),
('Rebel Homeworld', 1.1229235880398671, 150.5),
('Rebel Outpost', 1.1213720316622691, 189.5),
('Rebel Base', 1.1204013377926421, 149.5),
('Avian Uplift Race', 1.1200000000000001, 225.0),
('Prosperous World', 1.1193415637860082, 243.0),
('Pilgrimage World', 1.1189189189189188, 92.5),
('Lost Species Ark World', 1.1181988742964353, 266.5),
('Deficit Spending', 1.1168032786885247, 244.0),
('Aquatic Uplift Race', 1.1166666666666667, 210.0),
('Diversified Economy', 1.1154529307282415, 281.5),
('Pirate world', 1.1088235294117648, 170.0),
('Rebel Sympathizers', 1.1027777777777779, 180.0),
('Star Nomad Lair', 1.1008583690987124, 233.0),
('Rebel Fuel Cache', 1.094758064516129, 248.0),
('Gem World', 1.0926573426573427, 286.0),
('Clandestine Uplift Lab', 1.0904255319148937, 94.0),
('Pan-galactic League', 1.0892857142857142, 112.0),
('Galactic Trendsetters', 1.084070796460177, 339.0),
('Merchant Guild', 1.0837696335078535, 191.0),
('Consumer Markets', 1.0766045548654244, 241.5),
('Mining Conglomerate', 1.0753768844221105, 298.5),
('Export Duties', 1.0743362831858407, 282.5),
('The Last Of The Uplift Gnarssh', 1.0740740740740742, 189.0),
('Spice World', 1.0735586481113319, 251.5),
('Galactic Resort', 1.0689655172413792, 203.0),
('Terraforming Robots', 1.0677749360613811, 391.0),
('Merchant World', 1.058139534883721, 129.0),
('Mining World', 1.0578231292517006, 294.0),
('Empath World', 1.0572289156626506, 166.0),
('Alien Robot Sentry', 1.0541516245487366, 277.0),
('Deserted Alien Outpost', 1.0532212885154062, 178.5),
('Comet Zone', 1.0522765598650927, 296.5),
('Rebel Underground', 1.0508849557522124, 226.0),
('Bio-hazard Mining World', 1.0505050505050506, 198.0),
('New Survivalists', 1.0486257928118394, 236.5),
('Secluded World', 1.0458333333333334, 240.0),
("Earth's Lost Colony", 1.0438675022381378, 558.5),
('Deserted Alien Colony', 1.0406249999999999, 160.0),
('Destroyed World', 1.0388692579505301, 141.5),
('Galactic Bazaar', 1.0265151515151516, 132.0),
('Galactic Genome Project', 1.0245901639344261, 122.0),
('Trade League', 1.023076923076923, 130.0),
('Interstellar Bank', 1.0229226361031518, 349.0),
('Alien Rosetta Stone World', 1.0228310502283104, 219.0),
('Alpha Centauri', 1.0184782608695653, 460.0),
('Artist Colony', 1.0167714884696017, 238.5),
('Damaged Alien Factory', 1.0120967741935485, 372.0),
('Ancient Race', 1.0097919216646267, 408.5),
('Rebel Miners', 1.0062500000000001, 240.0),
('Lost Alien Warship', 1.0049751243781095, 201.0),
('Public Works', 1.0048076923076923, 416.0),
('Blaster Gem mines', 1.0025706940874035, 194.5),
('Alien Robot Scout Ship', 1.0, 218.5),
('Former Penal Colony', 0.99775280898876406, 222.5),
('Alien Robotic Factory', 0.99704142011834318, 169.0),
('Epsilon Eridani', 0.9936775553213909, 474.5),
('Malevolent Lifeforms', 0.9910714285714286, 168.0),
('Asteroid Belt', 0.98951048951048948, 143.0),
('Pre-sentient Race', 0.97900262467191601, 190.5),
('Tourist World', 0.97743055555555558, 288.0),
('Investment Credits', 0.97504990019960081, 501.0),
('Lost Alien Battle Fleet', 0.97198879551820727, 178.5),
('Contact Specialist', 0.97126436781609193, 261.0),
('Space Mercenaries', 0.96823204419889508, 362.0),
('Radioactive World', 0.96219931271477666, 145.5),
('Space Port', 0.96017699115044253, 226.0),
('New Galactic Order', 0.95871559633027525, 218.0),
('Mining Robots', 0.95759717314487636, 283.0),
('Volcanic World', 0.95331695331695332, 203.5),
('New Sparta', 0.95281124497991965, 498.0),
('Genetics Lab', 0.9526627218934911, 253.5),
('Replicant Robots', 0.94035087719298249, 427.5),
('Old Earth', 0.9393592677345538, 437.0),
('Galactic Engineers', 0.93269230769230771, 208.0),
('Space Marines', 0.92500000000000004, 440.0),
('New Vinland', 0.92479674796747968, 246.0),
('Imperium Armaments World', 0.92428198433420361, 191.5),
('Hive World', 0.92387543252595161, 144.5),
('Expedition Force', 0.91535671100362759, 413.5),
('Outlaw world', 0.90236686390532539, 169.0),
('Drop Ships', 0.8927097661623109, 363.5),
('Separatist Colony', 0.88928571428571423, 280.0),
('Research Labs', 0.8848920863309353, 139.0),
('Deserted Alien World', 0.8476394849785408, 233.0),
('Black Market Trading World', 0.84455958549222798, 96.5),
('New Military Tactics', 0.83636363636363631, 55.0),
('Plague World', 0.83510638297872342, 188.0),
('Expanding Colony', 0.82730923694779113, 124.5),
('Doomed World', 0.8125, 16.0),
('Distant World', 0.81081081081081086, 148.0),
('Terraformed World', 0.7990196078431373, 102.0),
('Colony Ship', 0.78504672897196259, 53.5)]
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Cards that stood out to me, that i may undervalue/overvalue:

rrenaud wrote:
4th ('Smuggling Lair', 1.2261029411764706, 272.0),
6th ('Refugee World', 1.2125984251968505, 127.0),
15th ('Deserted Alien Library', 1.1461794019933556, 150.5),
27th ('Pilgrimage World', 1.1189189189189188, 92.5),
37th ('Clandestine Uplift Lab', 1.0904255319148937, 94.0),
43rd ('Export Duties', 1.0743362831858407, 282.5),
81st ('Tourist World', 0.97743055555555558, 288.0),
82nd ('Investment Credits', 0.97504990019960081, 501.0),
84th ('Contact Specialist', 0.97126436781609193, 261.0),
88th ('New Galactic Order', 0.95871559633027525, 218.0),
93rd ('Replicant Robots', 0.94035087719298249, 427.5),
96th ('Space Marines', 0.92500000000000004, 440.0),
101st ('Drop Ships', 0.8927097661623109, 363.5),
104th ('Deserted Alien World', 0.8476394849785408, 233.0),

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rrenaud wrote:
6th ('Refugee World', 1.2125984251968505, 127.0)
[sarcasm]Yeah, I always said that Refugee World is so overpowered it's broken.[/sarcasm]

Refugee World!! Seriously? I know it's free, worth 1 point, 2 with Free Trade Association/Galactic Survey: SETI, 3 with Terraforming Guild, and it offers a Novelty Windfall good, but really?

Edit: to note that I'm not saying it's a bad card, just commenting on it being ranked 6th out of all the cards in R4tG+tGS.
 
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TheMadVulcan wrote:
rrenaud wrote:
6th ('Refugee World', 1.2125984251968505, 127.0)
[sarcasm]Yeah, I always said that Refugee World is so overpowered it's broken.[/sarcasm]

Refugee World!! Seriously? I know it's free, worth 1 point, 2 with Free Trade Association/Galactic Survey: SETI, 3 with Terraforming Guild, and it offers a Novelty Windfall good, but really?

Edit: to note that I'm not saying it's a bad card, just commenting on it being ranked 6th out of all the cards in R4tG+tGS.


I imagine it may feature a lot as one of the cards used to settle out the game in Terraforming Guild or Improved Logistics wins, but yes, it's odd to see it up there. The main one that shocks me is how low New Vinland is.

What kind of use is this as a metric? You can use identical worlds (the Uplift Races, Mining World/Comet Zone) as a kind of control to see that it's at least measuring something useful, but the odd placing of a few cards does make me wonder.

There are a couple of things I'd be interested in if it's not an imposition on Robert. First, a breakdown of which cards are present with a certain card when it wins (if this is possible); Refugee World would be a nice one to look at, seeing as it's already being discussed. Hopefully this should show up big combos: Terraforming Guild and Improved Logistics featuring heavily would help prove my idea, for example. Second, it'd be nice to see a breakdown of 2-player vs multi-player and whether the value of cards changes all that much.
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Edit: Kester says basically the same thing 10 minutes ago. Awesome!

I think the metric is a little bad. Things like refugee world don't win the game, but they can co-occur with winning tableaus (due to say, improved logistics or terraforming guild), but aren't really that responsible for the win.

It's not all that easy to dis-entangle the effects, however. I could compute a 'would lose if this card was dropped from tableau, but game ended as if it were there' metric, which I think could compensate for the settle spam factor a bit.

I could also compute a histogram of when the card was played on the tableau, presumably cards which are placed late and also don't score much (settle spam) aren't all that important.

However, I am very open to new ideas.

Also, the redundancy in the cards are nice (the 2 cost uplifts) and comet zone/mining world provide a nice sanity check and feel for the variance in the data. After many, many games you'd expect them to be adjacent to their identical twin/triplet (unless say, the art on the card is a factor.. ).
 
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Agree with both of you guys, but the fact that it ranks up there with Gal Fed and ATS (by a significant margin above the rest) pushes this into the realm of Wouldn't Have Guessed in a Thousand Years.
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I like the statistics.

I don't like how they were collected.
 
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What don't you like about how they were collected?
 
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rrenaud wrote:
Here is a ranking for all cards, based on 2600 games, all of which are two player. Note that Doomed World, New Military Tactics and Colony Ship are penalized unfairly by this metric (since it only counts surviving cards, if you have DW left, you probably screwed something up..).

I think this also unfairly favors cheap worlds you take on the last turn to end the game (Refugee World). A far more interesting metric would be to correlate wins to first card played, second card played, etc.
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rrenaud wrote:
What don't you like about how they were collected?


The 'genie' site is unofficial and unsanctioned.

The creators and publishers of the game have received no compensation for its existence and Tom has indicated that he does not support any non-official online implementation.

So I guess it is more correct to say that I'm glad for the stats, but I am not happy that the stats were available to be harvested.
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This metric is not how much more likely you are to win if you play a given card. Explicitly (AFAICT) it is the number of times a winning tableau contained a given card divided by (half of) the number of tableaus which contained that card. It is f(c) = P(W & c | X) / (0.5*P(c | X)), where X is the background assumptions, including (very important!) the assumption that in every examined match, players were equally skilled and that we know nothing besides our priors about the absolute skill level in a match.

What can we learn from this metric? f(c) = 2*P(W|c,X), which, being monotonic in P(W|c,X) might lead you to do something silly like decide which of two cards c and d to play based on the difference between f(c) and f(d) or something. But...

One thing we explicitly cannot learn is P(W|do(c),X), which is the probability of winning given that we set c rather than observe c. In other words, playing a card to make probability of winning increase is not covered by the metric. I would guess the metric correlates decently with setting c, but not enough to legitimately be surprised by Refugee World.

What's really going on with e.g. Refugee World, to account for its high rank despite our intuition that it does not greatly contribute to winning? Here are the two factors I believe are most at play:

a) Good players are more likely to keep it in hand, since it has fantastic leeching (play it for free on someone's Settle) and tempo capabilities, but it isn't at all impressive (players with lower skill might disregard it)
b) As previously mentioned, Terraforming and Improved Logistics tableaus

Perhaps a) is also responsible in part for the surprisingly high ranking of Pilgrimage World.
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byronczimmer wrote:
rrenaud wrote:
What don't you like about how they were collected?


The 'genie' site is unofficial and unsanctioned.

The creators and publishers of the game have received no compensation for its existence and Tom has indicated that he does not support any non-official online implementation.

So I guess it is more correct to say that I'm glad for the stats, but I am not happy that the stats were available to be harvested.

It will be interesting to see the difference in stats between people who will play on Genie and people who will play on the theoretical magical who-knows-whether-it-will-really-ever-exist online implementation. Definitely some selection bias going on.
 
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