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Subject: Influence of the Southern Oscillation on Tropospheric Temperature rss

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Interesting news from Down Under:



Three Australasian researchers have shown that natural forces are the dominant influence on climate, in a study just published in the highly-regarded Journal of Geophysical Research. According to this study little or none of the late 20th century global warming and cooling can be attributed to human activity.

The research, by Chris de Freitas, a climate scientist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand, John McLean (Melbourne) and Bob Carter (James Cook University), finds that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key indicator of global atmospheric temperatures seven months later. As an additional influence, intermittent volcanic activity injects cooling aerosols into the atmosphere and produces significant cooling.

“The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely” says corresponding author de Freitas.

“We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century. It may even be more if the period of influence of major volcanoes can be more clearly identified and the corresponding data excluded from the analysis.”

Climate researchers have long been aware that ENSO events influence global temperature, for example causing a high temperature spike in 1998 and a subsequent fall as conditions moved to La Niña. It is also well known that volcanic activity has a cooling influence, and as is well documented by the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption.

The new paper draws these two strands of climate control together and shows, by demonstrating a strong relationship between the Southern Oscillation and lower-atmospheric temperature, that ENSO has been a major temperature influence since continuous measurement of lower-atmospheric temperature first began in 1958.

According to the three researchers, ENSO-related warming during El Niño conditions is caused by a stronger Hadley Cell circulation moving warm tropical air into the mid-latitudes. During La Niña conditions the Pacific Ocean is cooler and the Walker circulation, west to east in the upper atmosphere along the equator, dominates.

“When climate models failed to retrospectively produce the temperatures since 1950 the modellers added some estimated influences of carbon dioxide to make up the shortfall,” says McLean.

“The IPCC acknowledges in its 4th Assessment Report that ENSO conditions cannot be predicted more than about 12 months ahead, so the output of climate models that could not predict ENSO conditions were being compared to temperatures during a period that was dominated by those influences. It’s no wonder that model outputs have been so inaccurate, and it is clear that future modelling must incorporate the ENSO effect if it is to be meaningful.”

Bob Carter, one of four scientists who has recently questioned the justification for the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, says that this paper has significant consequences for public climate policy.

“The close relationship between ENSO and global temperature, as described in the paper, leaves little room for any warming driven by human carbon dioxide emissions. The available data indicate that future global temperatures will continue to change primarily in response to ENSO cycling, volcanic activity and solar changes.”

“Our paper confirms what many scientists already know: which is that no scientific justification exists for emissions regulation, and that, irrespective of the severity of the cuts proposed, ETS will exert no measurable effect on future climate.”

McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009), Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.
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According to the three researchers, ENSO-related warming during El Niño conditions is caused by a stronger Hadley Cell circulation moving warm tropical air into the mid-latitudes. During La Niña conditions the Pacific Ocean is cooler and the Walker circulation, west to east in the upper atmosphere along the equator, dominates.

“When climate models failed to retrospectively produce the temperatures since 1950 the modellers added some estimated influences of carbon dioxide to make up the shortfall,” says McLean.

“The IPCC acknowledges in its 4th Assessment Report that ENSO conditions cannot be predicted more than about 12 months ahead, so the output of climate models that could not predict ENSO conditions were being compared to temperatures during a period that was dominated by those influences. It’s no wonder that model outputs have been so inaccurate, and it is clear that future modelling must incorporate the ENSO effect if it is to be meaningful.”


This is basically why we should be very skeptical of all climate models -- the process is too complex to be able to make any kind of accurate conclusions or predictions.
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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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eknauer wrote:
Interesting news from Down Under:



Three Australasian researchers have shown that natural forces are the dominant influence on climate, in a study just published in the highly-regarded Journal of Geophysical Research. According to this study little or none of the late 20th century global warming and cooling can be attributed to human activity.

The research, by Chris de Freitas, a climate scientist at the University of Auckland in New Zealand, John McLean (Melbourne) and Bob Carter (James Cook University), finds that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key indicator of global atmospheric temperatures seven months later. As an additional influence, intermittent volcanic activity injects cooling aerosols into the atmosphere and produces significant cooling.

“The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely” says corresponding author de Freitas.

“We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century. It may even be more if the period of influence of major volcanoes can be more clearly identified and the corresponding data excluded from the analysis.”

Climate researchers have long been aware that ENSO events influence global temperature, for example causing a high temperature spike in 1998 and a subsequent fall as conditions moved to La Niña. It is also well known that volcanic activity has a cooling influence, and as is well documented by the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption.

The new paper draws these two strands of climate control together and shows, by demonstrating a strong relationship between the Southern Oscillation and lower-atmospheric temperature, that ENSO has been a major temperature influence since continuous measurement of lower-atmospheric temperature first began in 1958.

According to the three researchers, ENSO-related warming during El Niño conditions is caused by a stronger Hadley Cell circulation moving warm tropical air into the mid-latitudes. During La Niña conditions the Pacific Ocean is cooler and the Walker circulation, west to east in the upper atmosphere along the equator, dominates.

“When climate models failed to retrospectively produce the temperatures since 1950 the modellers added some estimated influences of carbon dioxide to make up the shortfall,” says McLean.

“The IPCC acknowledges in its 4th Assessment Report that ENSO conditions cannot be predicted more than about 12 months ahead, so the output of climate models that could not predict ENSO conditions were being compared to temperatures during a period that was dominated by those influences. It’s no wonder that model outputs have been so inaccurate, and it is clear that future modelling must incorporate the ENSO effect if it is to be meaningful.”

Bob Carter, one of four scientists who has recently questioned the justification for the proposed Australian emissions trading scheme, says that this paper has significant consequences for public climate policy.

“The close relationship between ENSO and global temperature, as described in the paper, leaves little room for any warming driven by human carbon dioxide emissions. The available data indicate that future global temperatures will continue to change primarily in response to ENSO cycling, volcanic activity and solar changes.”

“Our paper confirms what many scientists already know: which is that no scientific justification exists for emissions regulation, and that, irrespective of the severity of the cuts proposed, ETS will exert no measurable effect on future climate.”

McLean, J. D., C. R. de Freitas, and R. M. Carter (2009), Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D14104, doi:10.1029/2008JD011637.


WHAT A BUNCH OF LYING LIARS, YOU LIAR RE-LYING LIES THAT OTHER LIARS HAVE LIED!
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eknauer wrote:
attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely


Until anyone can figure out what caused THAT climate shift, its all pointless.
 
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Geosphere wrote:
eknauer wrote:
attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely


Until anyone can figure out what caused THAT climate shift, its all pointless.


I'm pretty sure it must be Al Gore's fault.
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DaviddesJ wrote:
Geosphere wrote:
eknauer wrote:
attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely


Until anyone can figure out what caused THAT climate shift, its all pointless.


I'm pretty sure it must be Al Gore's fault.


That would be an inconvenient truth.
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OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM
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Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


If that was the case, the right solution would be to file a class action suit against nature. I'm sure that we'd get a nice settlement for that, like a $5 voucher towards the purchase of a Christmas tree.
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Quote:
Our paper confirms what many scientists already know: which is that no scientific justification exists for emissions regulation, and that, irrespective of the severity of the cuts proposed, ETS will exert no measurable effect on future climate.”



Excellent! That'll keep the corporate revenue flowing!
 
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I stay out of GW arguements. I just hope environmentalists will never be able to say "I told you so." I would much rather error on the side of caution.
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Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we should continue to focus on policy and regulation to fund the fight against human caused global warming?
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Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


I think the idea isn't that we do nothing. It's just that if humans aren't the dominant cause of global warming / climate change, then reducing our effect on the climate isn't going to make a big difference; we weren't causing the problem in the first place.

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bigbc79 wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


I think the idea isn't that we do nothing. It's just that if humans aren't the dominant cause of global warming / climate change, then reducing our effect on the climate isn't going to make a big difference; we weren't causing the problem in the first place.



So if a million children are starving, why bother to feed one.
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Geosphere wrote:
bigbc79 wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


I think the idea isn't that we do nothing. It's just that if humans aren't the dominant cause of global warming / climate change, then reducing our effect on the climate isn't going to make a big difference; we weren't causing the problem in the first place.



So if a million children are starving, why bother to feed one.


But isn't that a key consideration. We have actual people starving and dying now. Is it a proper use of our resources to try to stem the tide of GW when we have better opportunities for utilizing our limited resources to help with actual problems we have right now, like feeding starving people?

I grant that if the worst of the scenarios are true, not addressing the problem now will be bad, but I have to be honest and say that I find many of these claims to be fear mongering little better than the scare tactics used against terrorism.
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Geosphere wrote:
bigbc79 wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


I think the idea isn't that we do nothing. It's just that if humans aren't the dominant cause of global warming / climate change, then reducing our effect on the climate isn't going to make a big difference; we weren't causing the problem in the first place.



So if a million children are starving, why bother to feed one.


I'm hardly on the side of GW skeptics, but I don't understand your point here.

The paper is arguing that recent GW isn't man-caused but rather accounted for by a natural phenomena. Its authors argue furthermore that efforts to reduce our impact on GW are unlikely to help because we aren't the cause in the first place.

If that's true, then this isn't anything like saying we shouldn't feed any children because a million are starving. It's more like saying, "If children are dying because of a disease instead of due to the use of no.2 pencils, there's no point to getting rid of no.2 pencils." Moreover, my impression is that the authors of the paper would argue that recent global warming trends -- being caused by a cyclical natural event -- are likely to reverse themselves rather than continue to cause a problem. So it's more like, "Don't get rid of no.2 pencils and by the way the disease has nearly run its course and the sick kids aren't going to die after all."
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Chad_Ellis wrote:
Geosphere wrote:
bigbc79 wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


I think the idea isn't that we do nothing. It's just that if humans aren't the dominant cause of global warming / climate change, then reducing our effect on the climate isn't going to make a big difference; we weren't causing the problem in the first place.



So if a million children are starving, why bother to feed one.


I'm hardly on the side of GW skeptics, but I don't understand your point here.

The paper is arguing that recent GW isn't man-caused but rather accounted for by a natural phenomena. Its authors argue furthermore that efforts to reduce our impact on GW are unlikely to help because we aren't the cause in the first place.

If that's true, then this isn't anything like saying we shouldn't feed any children because a million are starving. It's more like saying, "If children are dying because of a disease instead of due to the use of no.2 pencils, there's no point to getting rid of no.2 pencils." Moreover, my impression is that the authors of the paper would argue that recent global warming trends -- being caused by a cyclical natural event -- are likely to reverse themselves rather than continue to cause a problem. So it's more like, "Don't get rid of no.2 pencils and by the way the disease has nearly run its course and the sick kids aren't going to die after all."


Wow. Talk about weird role reversal because, well, here goes:

I've stated before that the current scientific understanding of GW/AGW is that we do not definitely know humans are causing Global Warming but by the same token we don't know that humans aren't either. The earth-shattering scientific consensus as I understand it is that we just don't know.

This study brings some evidence to bear but this is still developing science in the sense that one such study doesn't prove anything conclusively.

Global Warming may be Anthropogenic and so we need continue looking into whether we are causing it, if so how, and if how can and should we do anything about it.
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Geosphere wrote:
bigbc79 wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


I think the idea isn't that we do nothing. It's just that if humans aren't the dominant cause of global warming / climate change, then reducing our effect on the climate isn't going to make a big difference; we weren't causing the problem in the first place.



So if a million children are starving, why bother to feed one.


Well, you feed the child because it would make a profound difference in that child's life. From what I understand with climate change, the idea is that it's kind of an all-or-nothing thing. If the whole world is spiraling toward an irreversible increase in temperature that kills everybody, then there is no "feeding one child".

If we reduce our CO2 emissions to zero ("feed one child"), and then find out that it was never in our control anyway, everyone still loses. The only difference is that we've made energy cost more. And that wouldn't be a huge problem except that global warming isn't the only issue out there, and raising energy costs during a recession could make it harder for people to afford, so they have a hard time heating their homes, etc.

And if the climate change trends we're seeing are cyclical and natural, then we've just crippled our economy for nothing. That's why the debate is out there.

(And yes, it's also because politicians want to keep their constituents happy. No doubt there's some political shenaniganery, but I'm talking about people who actually want to address an actual issue.)

The point is that it is important to really know what the source of the problem is, because the cost of being wrong is very high either way.
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Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


If humans did not cause GW it is because we can not cause GW. If we can't even cause GW, then what makes you think we can stop GW?

BTW, phrases like "destroying human civilization" makes the Libs sound like whacked-out Chicken Littles and raving fear mongers. Don't expect people to take your concerns seriously when you couch it in such extremist terms.
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tada wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


If humans did not cause GW it is because we can not cause GW. If we can't even cause GW, then what makes you think we can stop GW?


Right...because if there is one thing the human race has proven thus far, it is that it has absolutely zero penchant for shaping aspects of the planet.

It never ceases to amaze me that the exceptionalism of the human race suddenly hits a brick wall when it is politically convenient.


Quote:
BTW, phrases like "destroying human civilization" makes the Libs sound like whacked-out Chicken Littles and raving fear mongers. Don't expect people to take your concerns seriously when you couch it in such extremist terms.


But...but...that is the non-extremist version!

-MMM
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tada wrote:
Octavian wrote:
OHHHHH....so if global warming is natural and not caused by humans then we shouldn't try to do anything to prevent it from destroying human civilization. I get it now.

-MMM


If humans did not cause GW it is because we can not cause GW. If we can't even cause GW, then what makes you think we can stop GW?


Just following your "if" lead, dude.

 
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tada wrote:

If humans did not cause GW it is because we can not cause GW. If we can't even cause GW, then what makes you think we can stop GW?


You are saying that if we aren't doing something that we're not trying to do, then we wouldn't be capable of doing something if we did try?

And that makes sense to you?

-MMM

[COLOR=#F4F4FF]
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Octavian wrote:
tada wrote:
BTW, phrases like "destroying human civilization" makes the Libs sound like whacked-out Chicken Littles and raving fear mongers. Don't expect people to take your concerns seriously when you couch it in such extremist terms.


But...but...that is the non-extremist version!

-MMM


The claim of the impending destruction of human civilization is the most extreme fear tactic that the Left uses to try to gain control of this country. But maybe this would qualify as an extremist version of CC for you. Maybe?
 
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Octavian wrote:
tada wrote:

If humans did not cause GW it is because we can not cause GW. If we can't even cause GW, then what makes you think we can stop GW?


You are saying that if we aren't doing something that we're not trying to do, then we wouldn't be capable of doing something if we did try?

And that makes sense to you?

-MMM


Wow! Can a non-GW/CC alarmist please interpret Octavian's incoherent response for me? I'm to tired to translate it this late. Good night and good grief!
 
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I didn't think it was that complicated.

You are suggesting that if GW isn't caused by human activity, then we aren't capable of doing anything to stop it.

However we haven't really been TRYING to cause GW, have we?

Yet we WOULD be TRYING to prevent GW.

See the difference there? I know it's subtle, but it kinda makes your whole argument fall apart.

-MMM
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