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Subject: Some stats rss

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Stephen Tavener
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There have been over 100 games started on pbmserv now, so it's time for some duvet stuffing. I don't have figures for all the games, but for those that I do have:

7 out of 66 completed games ended in a draw (11%).

Winning scores:

4: 11
5:
6: 1
7: 1111
8: 11111 11111 11
9: 11111 1
10: 11111 11111 11111 1111
11: 1111
12: 11111 1111
13: 1111
14: 11111 111
15: 1
16: 1


All scores:

4: 11
5:
6: 1
7: 1111
8: 11111 11111 111
9: 11111 111
10: 11111 11111 11111 11111 11111 11
11: 1111
12: 11111 11111 1111
13: 11111 11111 1
14: 11111 11111 11111 11111 1
15: 11111 1
16; 11111 1111
17: 111
18: 1111
19:
20: 1
21: 11
22: 11111 111


Note 1: 22 is the score if the farmer goes berserk, and gets it wrong - all the sheep are eaten while the farmer reloads.

Note 2: One of the 4's could have been less. I was foolish enough to choose 'WOLF' in one of my games against Cameron, and he proceeded to pick off the wolves in order

Note 3: Odd numbers are only possible if the farmer passes, or goes berserk; so are much less frequent than even numbers.
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Dave Dyer
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This suggests an alternate balancing mechanism. After placing
his sheep, the farmer declares his score, and the wolf has to
choose to play against that score, or swap and be the farmer.

Based on your stats, a reasonable bid score would be 9 1/2
to 10 1/2 (no ties!)

Another thought - perhaps with this "one game at a time" rule,
some previously unavailable strategies would become possible.
With the pair-of-games rule, arrangements where the wolf can be
expected to score high are pretty much excluded (because they would
be matched by a game where the wolf should score lower.)


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Stephen Tavener
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I had considered something along these lines; that was one of the main reasons for gathering the statistics.

I was thinking of a short 1-round game where 12 or more is a loss for the farmer, anything less is a win. The nomination-and-swap rule works better when both players know the game, though.
 
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Néstor Romeral Andrés
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Why not just playing twice changing roles? Maybe with a fixed setup?

Néstor
 
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Stephen Tavener
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Playing twice changing sides is the best way to play; but if folks are in a hurry, or playing by email, then playing just one round would be good sometimes.
 
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