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Subject: Gulf War 3 rss

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David Dockter
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Thought it would be interesting to get a few wargamers prognosis on the current Iranian situation...
1# Without a significant change in the current situation (change in Iranian government, war with USA or Israel, etc) , Iran will develop nuclear weapons within:
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
1 year
6.7% 3
2 years
26.7% 12
3 to 5 years
53.3% 24
6 to 10 years
8.9% 4
11+ years
2.2% 1
Never
2.2% 1
Voters 45
#2A: Serious (gasoline supply significantly restricted, etc) sanctions will be imposed on Iran by the UN to attempt to stop development of Iranian nuclear weapons:
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
By end of 2009
8.9% 4
By end of 2010
42.2% 19
By end of 2011
4.4% 2
Never
44.4% 20
Voters 45
2B# Serious (gasoline supply significantly restricted, etc) sanctions will be imposed on Iran by the UN and the effect will be:
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Cripling and results in Iran not developing nuclear weapons (2020 or +)
4.4% 2
Significant and results in Iran significantly delaying development
13.3% 6
A joke
82.2% 37
Voters 45
#3B Israel will launches a military strike against Iran nuclear facilities when...
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
By end of 2009, after lack of agreement on sanctions
2.2% 1
By end of 2009, regardless of agreement on sanctions
4.4% 2
By end of 2010, after lack of agreement on sanctions
17.8% 8
By end of 2010, regardless of agreement on sanctions
33.3% 15
2011 - 2015
24.4% 11
Later or never
17.8% 8
Voters 45
4# The USA launches a military strike against Iran nuclear facilities
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
By 2009
0.0% 0
By 2010
6.8% 3
By 2011
20.5% 9
By 2020
15.9% 7
Never or after 2020
56.8% 25
Voters 44
#5 A military strike on Iran nuclear facilities has what impact on Iran's capability to develop nuclear weapons:
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Significant - delays by at least 10 years
40.0% 18
Marginal - delays 5 to 9 years
24.4% 11
Mininal - delays by 2 to 4 years
20.0% 9
Negligible - noise
15.6% 7
Voters 45
#6A What is the likelihood that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would lead to a significant disruption of oil supplies shipped thru the Persian Gulf?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Near Certain (80%+)
35.6% 16
Probable (50-80%)
37.8% 17
Likely (20-50%)
13.3% 6
Maybe (5-20%)
8.9% 4
Unlikely (less than 5%)
4.4% 2
Voters 45
6B A significant disruption of oil supplies resulting from a military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities impact on oil prices:
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Catastrophic ($300+...for an extended period to time)
7.0% 3
Brutal (100-$300...for an extended period to time)
67.4% 29
Marginal (short term price spike)
27.9% 12
Voters 43
#7 What is the likelihood that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel would lead to a war between the USA and Iran?
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Near Certain (80%+)
7.0% 3
Probable (50-80%)
20.9% 9
Likely (20-50%)
23.3% 10
Maybe (5-20%)
30.2% 13
Unlikely (less than 5%)
20.9% 9
Voters 43
8# What is the likelihood that a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would lead to the following change in an Iranian government:
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Becomes more isolated and more aggressive
64.3% 27
No significant changes
26.2% 11
Becomes less isolated and less aggressive
9.5% 4
Voters 42
9# A military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities leads to...
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Basically, world war three
7.0% 3
A regional war
30.2% 13
A short war involving Iran, USA, Israel
14.0% 6
A short war involving only Iran and the country conducting the strike
14.0% 6
A short dust-up (over quickly)
34.9% 15
Voters 43
10# In November of 2012...
  Your Answer   Vote Percent Vote Count
Iran will be a mainstream, somewhat democratic state without nuc's
4.7% 2
Iran will be a mainstream, somewhat democratic state with nuc's
2.3% 1
Iran will continue with its current government without nuc's
32.6% 14
Iran will continue with its current government with nuc's
37.2% 16
Iran will have a more aggressive government without nuc's
18.6% 8
Iran will have a more aggressive government with nuc's
9.3% 4
Voters 43
This poll is now closed.   45 answers
Poll created by Herr Dr
Closes: Sun Nov 1, 2009 5:00 am


So, how is this Iranian situation likely to game out?

Good related article from the smart blokes at stratfor:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090915_misreading_iranian_n...
 
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Robert Outlaw
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I think the warming up of Russian/American diplomacy as of late (the missile shield scrapping helped there) makes a peaceful solution via inspections and sanctions much more likely than before. Russia and Beijing were really (as the article points out) happy to leave the Iran question up to Western Europe and the US, but recent statements leave me to believe that they aren't going to do so at the expense of looking like they are "standing up" for Iran.


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Jack
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ftarzanin wrote:
I despise Iran. However, for those who think a military strike will make a big difference on the program you should take a look at the second site pictures ... I'm no expert but they appear to be hardened bunkers ... there does not appear to be much above ground except the road and SAM sites.

IMHO: If the US can make bunkers that can survive nuclear strikes, then I think it's highly conceivable that Iran could make bunkers that are very difficult to severely damage by air strikes.


The new Massive Ordnance Penetrator is due to be available next year, and is supposed to be able to penetrate bunkers up to 200 ft, and packs 5,300 lbs of explosives (10 times the amount of its predecessor). surprise
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Jack
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Fragamemnon wrote:
I think the warming up of Russian/American diplomacy as of late (the missile shield scrapping helped there) makes a peaceful solution via inspections and sanctions much more likely than before. Russia and Beijing were really (as the article points out) happy to leave the Iran question up to Western Europe and the US, but recent statements leave me to believe that they aren't going to do so at the expense of looking like they are "standing up" for Iran.


I wish I could agree with you, but as I read elsewhere today (paraphrasing), "Iran is a thorn in America's side that the Russians are happy to see stay there" (barring more concessions).
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Richard Maurer
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jackolantern wrote:
Fragamemnon wrote:
I think the warming up of Russian/American diplomacy as of late (the missile shield scrapping helped there) makes a peaceful solution via inspections and sanctions much more likely than before. Russia and Beijing were really (as the article points out) happy to leave the Iran question up to Western Europe and the US, but recent statements leave me to believe that they aren't going to do so at the expense of looking like they are "standing up" for Iran.


I wish I could agree with you, but as I read elsewhere today (paraphrasing), "Iran is a thorn in America's side that the Russians are happy to see stay there" (barring more concessions).


Very true, it is interesting how game play tends to follow reality.
 
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David Dockter
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Sort of a Russian & Chinese dream scenario playing out; USA nation building in Afghanistan with a corrupt and ineffective local partner (I think Alexander the Great started that particular project...still not close to finished) and Iraq with a corrupt and ineffective local partner....Russia the world's leading oil exporter...and Communist Chinese buying our bonds as we head towards financial ruin. Sort of ironic.

Can't see either one wanting to make our life easier with Iran.
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David Dockter
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Agree - and a number of other spins on that scenario.
 
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