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Subject: How much of a problem is this going to be for Republicans? rss

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Matthew M
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And before people jump in saying all 18-29 year olds are loony lefties - for comparison purposes:

Percentage of 18-29 vote by party in Presidential elections:


1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Democrat 46 51 44 40 47 43 53 48 54 66

Republican 52 47 43 59 52 34 34 46 45 32

Independent - - 11 - - 22 10 5 - -




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Trey Stone
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I think such revelations are also reflected in the majority of the audiences of your right wing gasbags. Mostly white old farts.
 
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Tony Allen
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So you've proved that adults under 30 are more loony than ever before. What a great post, MMM. Congrats.
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Do you have any data on the rate that people become more conservative as they age? Without that, I'd say the map in an interesting statistic but little more than that, since elections are not in fact decided by 18-29 year-olds.
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Are you implying that these people will maintain party affiliation even into the next presidential election?

Those numbers look extremely volatile so I really doubt they mean much of anything in the long run to either party.
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Matthew M
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Benjro wrote:
Are you implying that these people will maintain party affiliation even into the next presidential election?


Certainly not all of them, but I also wouldn't expect massive swings.

Look at the group in the 1980s and early 1990s - pretty conservative (when you take into account that the Indpenendent in 92 was Perot). Those are the current voters who are in their 40s, 50s, and 60s. Also pretty conservative.

Quote:
Those numbers look extremely volatile


They should be...they every third number is a completely different set of people. If it consistently showed leaning towards Democrats then it would actually support the notion that the age bracket is simply more liberal and that those tendencies change as people age.

-MMM
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Benny
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Octavian wrote:
They should be...they every third number is a completely different set of people. If it consistently showed leaning towards Democrats then it would actually support the notion that the age bracket is simply more liberal and that those tendencies change as people age.

-MMM


I just don't think presidential elections reflect general political leanings because they involve personality so much. While there are some exceptions, the results you give generally pair up with the overall election results which is what I would expect.

My point is that no group of people is so beholden to an ideology that they won't vote out a person they don't like or vote for a person they like.

I think it would be much more interesting to see how 18-29 year olds vote in other elections.
 
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Trey Stone
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And most people do change their perspectives as time moves on. At no point does any open minded individual just go, "Well, that's it, I've figured it all out."

I'm kind of the opposite of the trend, btw. I started conservative, and have gotten more liberal as I've grown older. Again, due to new information I assimilated.

I'm no bleeding heart bedwetter, I've got some issues I'm definitely conservative on. But some I'm DEFINITELY not. Like most things, I like to think of myself as fairly balanced and open minded.
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Trey Stone
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Drew1365 wrote:
tstone wrote:
I like to think of myself as fairly balanced and open minded.


Everybody does. cool


No, I've actually met people who consider open mindedness a detriment. Who lock themselves in an "ism" of some sort, and have no problem admitting it.

They'll tell you this, and usually give you the line about being "so open minded, your brain falls out" and what not.
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An open mind is a fortress with its gates unbarred and unguarded.

Hey, consider myself open minded, but fairly unbalanced.
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It's not a problem at all. They just have to move towards the middle, just like every hunter has to follow its prey. Just for fun, I went to look what Swedish kids voted for this summer:



24% of 18-21 year-olds went for the Pirate Party, which primarily is concerned with the fact that you're not allowed to download movies from www.thepiratebay.org

21% of them went for the Green Party, which also want to legalise filesharing.

Add to that a 7% support for the Communists, and the 18-21-year-olds would give us a majority in favor of Internet piracy. arrrh

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my opinion

most of the numbers are reflective of the change in the age at which young adults go from being supported by their parents vs supporting themselves

I am 62 and live in liberal Massachusetts
I tend to be conservative
I am not a right wing nut
I hate all GASBAGS from the right and left
I think the country will change a lot over the next 10 years
.... the majority of the population is not going to like the changes
.... the majority will not be form the left or right, they will be the people that suffer and pay the most because of the changes

my three kids are in their 30's
they support themselves
I think they have a high probability of being screwed by the changes that are coming soblue



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The red in Iraq was is probably because they asked everyone whose phone was working.
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The thing that's hard for me to assess is how meaningful this is as applied to different policy alignments of political parties in the future.

For instance, I suspect that today's 18-29 year olds are far more socially "liberal" than today's 65+ year olds -- so, for instance, I think that full legalization of same-sex marriage is really a demographic waiting game. I also think that the focus of the Republican Party of recent years on "Hi! I'm here, monitoring your bedroom!" kinds of approaches to social issues is likely to form a substantial part of why the whippersnappers don't find it appealing.

If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.
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Trey Stone
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corross wrote:
The thing that's hard for me to assess is how meaningful this is as applied to different policy alignments of political parties in the future.

For instance, I suspect that today's 18-29 year olds are far more socially "liberal" than today's 65+ year olds -- so, for instance, I think that full legalization of same-sex marriage is really a demographic waiting game. I also think that the focus of the Republican Party of recent years on "Hi! I'm here, monitoring your bedroom!" kinds of approaches to social issues is likely to form a substantial part of why the whippersnappers don't find it appealing.

If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.


This.
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DCAnderson wrote:
As such, there will likely be two parties to handle this.

One will be more to the left politically, and one will be more to the right.


Nah man, one will be to the up, and the other will be to the down.

As for me, I am down man. I am so down.
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corross wrote:
If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.


Only problem is, that's a fantasy. The Republicans have never been fiscally conservative or socially laissez-faire, at least not in the past half-century.

I'd say the last one like that might have been Eisenhower (when assuming Republican presidents reflect the direction of the party as a whole) but I can't — nowadays he'd be excoriated by Republicans for his 90% top marginal tax rate and for introducing huge government spending programs like the interstate highway system.

Not to mention he was kind of against the military-industrial complex, which modern Republican politicians worship.

So realistically, Republicans have never been fiscally conservative. They just like us to think that in some halcyon past they were.
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tstone wrote:
corross wrote:
The thing that's hard for me to assess is how meaningful this is as applied to different policy alignments of political parties in the future.

For instance, I suspect that today's 18-29 year olds are far more socially "liberal" than today's 65+ year olds -- so, for instance, I think that full legalization of same-sex marriage is really a demographic waiting game. I also think that the focus of the Republican Party of recent years on "Hi! I'm here, monitoring your bedroom!" kinds of approaches to social issues is likely to form a substantial part of why the whippersnappers don't find it appealing.

If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.


This.

Why don't you just save time and thumb it?
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jarredscott78 wrote:
tstone wrote:
corross wrote:
The thing that's hard for me to assess is how meaningful this is as applied to different policy alignments of political parties in the future.

For instance, I suspect that today's 18-29 year olds are far more socially "liberal" than today's 65+ year olds -- so, for instance, I think that full legalization of same-sex marriage is really a demographic waiting game. I also think that the focus of the Republican Party of recent years on "Hi! I'm here, monitoring your bedroom!" kinds of approaches to social issues is likely to form a substantial part of why the whippersnappers don't find it appealing.

If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.


This.

Why don't you just save time and thumb it?


This.
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Trey Stone
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jarredscott78 wrote:
tstone wrote:
corross wrote:
The thing that's hard for me to assess is how meaningful this is as applied to different policy alignments of political parties in the future.

For instance, I suspect that today's 18-29 year olds are far more socially "liberal" than today's 65+ year olds -- so, for instance, I think that full legalization of same-sex marriage is really a demographic waiting game. I also think that the focus of the Republican Party of recent years on "Hi! I'm here, monitoring your bedroom!" kinds of approaches to social issues is likely to form a substantial part of why the whippersnappers don't find it appealing.

If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.


This.

Why don't you just save time and thumb it?


Quote:

Fair question...

1. It's my time to save or not as I wish.

2. I usually use the thumbs. However, if I REALLY like a point, I like to do....


This.

Efficiency is vastly overrated.
 
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Paul Sauberer
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That map actually looks like a huge looming problem for the Democrats in the 2010 congressional elections.

Even with such a huge margin in that demographic, Obama only ended up with a 53-46 overall majority.

That particular demographic was arguably motivated in large part by the personal allure of Obama.

Without him on the ballot this fall, are the Democrats going to be able to prevent a huge backlash on the congressional level? The sheer number of voters from this demographic as well as African Americans are likely to be far less than 2008 on a percentage basis. They aren't going to have the same motivation as they did with Obama on the ballot.

Put a lower percentage of your most reliable base into the mix and your chances in the election are diminished greatly.
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Trey Stone
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The big variable in play will be how the year progresses. What will the picture look like between now and November?

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Luminous wrote:
corross wrote:
If the Republican Party were to come to its senses, though, and return to a fiscally-conservative, socially laissez-faire kind of place, I think that people's political party alignments would change quite a bit.


Only problem is, that's a fantasy. The Republicans have never been fiscally conservative or socially laissez-faire, at least not in the past half-century.

I'd say the last one like that might have been Eisenhower (when assuming Republican presidents reflect the direction of the party as a whole) but I can't — nowadays he'd be excoriated by Republicans for his 90% top marginal tax rate and for introducing huge government spending programs like the interstate highway system.

Not to mention he was kind of against the military-industrial complex, which modern Republican politicians worship.

So realistically, Republicans have never been fiscally conservative. They just like us to think that in some halcyon past they were.


Well, my baseline for "Republicans" here is hugely based on my parents, who have always identified with that party and who are, in fact, fiscally conservative and socially moderate-to-liberal. From what I can tell, the epitome of their preference was Goldwater -- and his candidacy was 40+ years ago, so your half-century remark is a reasonable one.

They have supported Republican candidates, with various degrees of enthusiasm, until 2008, when they decided that the party had strayed so far from their principles that they couldn't support the Republican presidential candidate.

At any rate, my sense has been that the Republican party has been moving away from fiscal conservatism and towards "culture war" right-wing social positions for quite some time now, with the major shift happening from the 1980s through the present. For people like my parents -- and, perhaps, like others -- that's what's behind a push away from the Republican Party, and it would take a shift of the Republican Party to bring them back.
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dysjunct wrote:
Do you have any data on the rate that people become more conservative as they age?


I don't have the study in front of me, but I've read that 20-35 cements voting preference for a lot of people for their entire lives; it's a bit to do with tribalism and a bit to do with the fact that it's when you get a sense of yourself. If you track the voting preferences of 18-29 year olds in 1980 with 30-41 year olds in 1992, 38-49 year olds in 2000 and 46-57 year olds in 2008, for example, that generation swings conservative in most elections.

All of this is part of the reason wedge-issue campaigning took precedence a while back; if you can peel off a "wedge" of voters, you can take a whole election.
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I'm not sure it's relevant. I think there are large blocs of moderately conservative to moderately liberal voters looking for a party that represents them. Lacking that, they will either vote for a personality or just stay home and grumble.
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