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Subject: Some numbers about the decks. rss

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Chris Kessel
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Some things from looking at the card distributions:

Fate - Every base type has 20% of the cards as orbs, except circles who have 40%. In looking at the units, circle types are all "magic users" of some sort so that make thematic sense.

Diplomacy - 4 success, 8 even, 18 failure. So, 60% failures. Spend 2 influence and odds are roughly 75% you'd not draw 2 failures. So, taking over a neutral territory is generally inexpensive.

Rewards - 20% (5/25)are shards. The designer apparently likes multiples of 20% . 9/25 are weapons, 4/25 are armor. Only 4 of 25 give the hero something that interacts with the board and/or army units.

Seasons:
Spring - 25% are the full recruit cards. Zero wizard council cards.
Summer - 5/8ths are "Wizards's Council".
Fall - 50% are famine or harvest, plus 1 more is frozen crops. So 5/8ths muck with the dials. Zero wizard council cards
Winter - 75% are "Wizard's Council" cards

Note that all Wizard Council cards involve an influence bid.

Tactics - 3/50 are Scorched Earth. What a crappy card
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Philip Moerenhout
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Hello Chris,
Could you give us the exact percentages of each result per unit type please ?

Back in november I figured out the following distribution on the FFG forum and it seems the Orb odds were mostly correct.

From ffg forum :
Quote.

Triangle Units Miss 40% of the time ( confirmed in the previews) which leaves 60% for the other three results

which will break down IMO like : Rout 10% - Orb 20% - Hit 30% ( for 1 confirmed damage, no more )



Circle units are described as being as fragile as Triangle Units - meaning they'll usually have just 1 HP as well

but " their special abilities are triggered twice as often".

Circle units also seem to be more of the wizard - priest - hero type units, so my guess is they'll break down like this

Rout 10% - Hit 20% - Miss 30% - Orb 40%



"Rectangle Units successfully attack more often than Triangle Units" which leads me to

Rout 10% - Miss 20% - Orb 30% - Hit 40%

There are quite a few Routing effects among different units' special abilities that's why I figure the "base" routing percentage will be low.



" Hexagon units succesfully attack more often than rectangle units " leads to

Miss 10% - Orb 20% - Rout 30% - Hit 40%

end quote.
 
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Chris Kessel
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Like I said, the orbs are 20% for all except circles are 40%. I'm really not into counting hits and routs per base type, sorry. Orbs were pretty important and I wanted to have an idea how often they occurred. For example, orbs are HUGE for Flesh Rippers so knowing 20% is important.
 
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Scott Lewis
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Triangles:
12 Misses
6 Orbs
8 Damage (all 1)
4 Rout (all 1)

Rectangles:
9 Misses
6 Orbs
10 Damage (6@1, 4@2)
5 Rout (3@1, 2@2)

Hexagon:
6 Misses
6 Orbs
12 Damage (5@1, 4@2, 3@2)
6 Rout (1@1, 5@2)

Circle:
12 Misses
12 Orbs
4 Damage (all 1)
2 Rout (all 1)
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Raviv Nagel
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Thank you for that! I was waiting for this info to start thinking about my dice variant.

Two lines look suspicious:
Hexagon:
12 Damage (5@1, 4@2, 3@2)
6 Rout (1@1, 5@2)

I assume the first should say 3@3
The second line is just weird, but could be correct.


sigmazero13 wrote:
Triangles:
12 Misses
6 Orbs
8 Damage (all 1)
4 Rout (all 1)

Rectangles:
9 Misses
6 Orbs
10 Damage (6@1, 4@2)
5 Rout (3@1, 2@2)

Hexagon:
6 Misses
6 Orbs
12 Damage (5@1, 4@2, 3@2)
6 Rout (1@1, 5@2)

Circle:
12 Misses
12 Orbs
4 Damage (all 1)
2 Rout (all 1)
 
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Scott Lewis
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raviv wrote:
Thank you for that! I was waiting for this info to start thinking about my dice variant.

Two lines look suspicious:
Hexagon:
12 Damage (5@1, 4@2, 3@2)
6 Rout (1@1, 5@2)

I assume the first should say 3@3

Ooops, yes, me typing too fast. 3@3.

Quote:
The second line is just weird, but could be correct.

I can double check when I get home, but I'm fairly sure it's correct - the Hexagon figures are pretty powerful, and most of their routs were the 2's, if I recall.
 
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Andrew
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Any chance someone with a copy of the game could either:

a) Attach card numbers and diplomacy results to hits/misses/orbs/routs

or

b) Upload a picture of all 30 Fate Cards laid out so that I can compile that information

I'm not sure when I will be able to get this information on my own, and it would be helpful for me in making player aids.
 
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Scott Lewis
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I'm not going to go there. FFG usually is usually pretty strict about not having EXACT card details posted online. I think general statistics is one thing, but when the exact details of each card is up, I think it may cross that line.
 
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Chris Kessel
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BTW, I'm just going to buy a 30-sided die to replace diplomacy and hero questing "rolls". 1-4 success, 5-16 = average, 17+ = fail. Watching every flipped up fate card from combat to try and remember how many successes are left was annoying.
 
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Scott Lewis
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ckessel wrote:
BTW, I'm just going to buy a 30-sided die to replace diplomacy and hero questing "rolls". 1-4 success, 5-16 = average, 17+ = fail. Watching every flipped up fate card from combat to try and remember how many successes are left was annoying.

Um, you don't have to "remember" it - you are allowed to look at the discard pile any time you want to.

Memorizing all the combat stuff would be a chore, but looking and knowing how many successes, middles, and "bads" are left wouldn't be very hard with just a cursory look. "Oh, 3 of the successes are gone already, and there are about 2 cards left. I think I'll pass".
 
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Andrew
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That's fair, though there are a great number of pictures of cards posted for Starcraft, TI3, etc. already.
 
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Scott Lewis
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wardac wrote:
That's fair, though there are a great number of pictures of cards posted for Starcraft, TI3, etc. already.

Some of them, yes, but I think FFG would probably ask for tighter control if EVERY card was posted, either in picture form or text form.

For instance, I play TI3 online on another site a lot. FFG is ok with it as long as the card texts are not posted on the pages; only the titles.
 
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Ryan Hanson
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Thanks for finally posting the numbers on the decks, Scott.

Running through all 30 results for each type you get:

Triangle: 8 damage, 4 routs
Circle: 4 damage, 2 routs (but 6 extra orbs)
Rectangle: 14 damage, 7 routs
Hexagon: 22 damage, 11 routs

So it looks like damage results to rout results is a 2:1 ratio across the board.

To summarize for newer players, it looks like the easy thing to tell them is that Rectangles hit about twice as hard as Triangles, and Hexagons hit about three times as hard as Triangles. The Circles hit only half as hard but have twice the chance of firing off a special ability.

Or, to put it in more of wargame terms:

Circle: 1 combat factor, 2 special power factors
Triangle: 2 combat factor, 1 special power factor
Rectangle: 4 combat factors, 1 special power factor
Hexagon: 6 combat factors, 1 special power factor
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Robb Minneman
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Hansolo88 wrote:
Circle: 1 combat factor, 2 special power factors
Triangle: 2 combat factor, 1 special power factor
Rectangle: 4 combat factors, 1 special power factor
Hexagon: 6 combat factors, 1 special power factor


That's a terrific way to think about that. Thanks!
 
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Chris Kessel
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sigmazero13 wrote:
ckessel wrote:
BTW, I'm just going to buy a 30-sided die to replace diplomacy and hero questing "rolls". 1-4 success, 5-16 = average, 17+ = fail. Watching every flipped up fate card from combat to try and remember how many successes are left was annoying.

Um, you don't have to "remember" it - you are allowed to look at the discard pile any time you want to.

Memorizing all the combat stuff would be a chore, but looking and knowing how many successes, middles, and "bads" are left wouldn't be very hard with just a cursory look. "Oh, 3 of the successes are gone already, and there are about 2 cards left. I think I'll pass".


Yes, exactly. Digging through the deck constantly to see how many successes had been used was a nuisance. We started just putting the successes in a different pile, but then checking every fate card used in combat so we could dump it in the right discard pile was annoying.

Not hugely annoying, but enough of a thorn I'd rather just not deal with it.
 
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Scott Lewis
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There are 30 cards. The discard deck will usually be much smaller than that. You'll maybe want to do one or two diplomacy's or quests a year - and it probably takes all of about 20 seconds to look through it.

By going to the dice, you are taking something that is controllable (ie, risk management) to something completely random. If that floats your boat, so be it, but I don't think it would make the game better overall.


Yes, I can see how it would be obnoxious if someone was trying to "count cards" for combat results, as those are a lot less straightforward, but it won't take more than a few seconds to see that there are 0 or 2 or whatever Success results in the deck.
 
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Chris Kessel
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sigmazero13 wrote:
There are 30 cards. The discard deck will usually be much smaller than that. You'll maybe want to do one or two diplomacy's or quests a year - and it probably takes all of about 20 seconds to look through it.

You can't just count the successes pulled. You have to know it in relation to how many cards are left. So, every single quest or diplomacy you have to count how many cards are remaining. We generally had, in a give year of gameplay, 4-5 diplomacies and 2-3 quests.

Also, I personally think it's lame that diplomacy chances vary based on something like whether or not a quest was recently completed or what combat cards got pulled. I strongly believe that's simply an accident of using the fate deck for both rather than an intentional design point.

Like I said, it's not a big deal, but any annoyance I can remove improves the game for me.
 
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Scott Lewis
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Well, if it makes it more fun to you to make it 100% random with no way of working the odds, then that's the way to do it for your group.

Whatever makes it more fun is the goal. For me, reducing it to a dice roll would take away much of the strategy of the diplomacy and questing aspects of the game.
 
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Chris Kessel
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sigmazero13 wrote:

Whatever makes it more fun is the goal. For me, reducing it to a dice roll would take away much of the strategy of the diplomacy and questing aspects of the game.

Counting cards is strategy?
 
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Scott Lewis
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ckessel wrote:
sigmazero13 wrote:

Whatever makes it more fun is the goal. For me, reducing it to a dice roll would take away much of the strategy of the diplomacy and questing aspects of the game.

Counting cards is strategy?

Risk assessment is a strategy, especially since the rulebook expressly says "This allows the players to judge which destiny icons have been used before deciding to attempt diplomacy or a Quest."

IE, it seems that it was INTENDED that knowing what is in the discard for destiny checks was part of the strategy of knowing when to quest and when not to quest, or when to attempt or not attempt diplomacy.


But again, if the hassle of that is not worth the benefit, and rolling a die makes it more fun, then go ahead. I think it makes things less interesting, because all of a sudden, you have no way to play the odds, you are stuck with a 4/30 chance each time.
 
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Robb Minneman
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It's the difference between playing blackjack and playing craps. That is, you have dependent and independent events. If you think that prior events should influence future ones, then the card deck makes sense. If you think that they should be independent events on every roll, then dice make more sense.

That's more a matter of taste rather than good/bad game design. One more point: The card deck makes it so the game can have a series of events handled by one mechanism, rather than a series of different dice. The combat system, at least, works better that way.
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Chris Kessel
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sigmazero13 wrote:
I think it makes things less interesting, because all of a sudden, you have no way to play the odds, you are stuck with a 4/30 chance each time.

See, I find it makes things more tedious because the strategic decisions related to the shifting percentages seem obvious to me. There's no real depth or planning. It's just "the percentage is X this turn".

I'll have to think about it. Once thing I DO like about the cards is that if you draw 2 cards you're more than twice as likely to succeed and drawing 4 cards is a different percentage result than rolling 4 dice. I don't want to screw that up and rolling dice would muck with that.

I might opt for chits in a bag. Draw X chits, throw them back in the bag afterwards so the next guy has the full 30 chits to draw from. I've got plenty of colored glass beads that would work for that.
 
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Scott Lewis
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I agree if abused, it could get tedious. I guess just based on my games, looking at the deck to see "oh, there are about 6 cards used so far, and none of them have the good symbol", makes me know that my chances are better. Or, if the other heroes have had success, I know I'm much less likely to. (Each "bad" result only un-dilutes the pool a lot, but each "good" result lowers the chances of another one quite a bit).

I think it just depends on how much time is being spent/wasted on checking. I don't really "count" the cards, just look for the number of good results, and estimate from there.
 
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Chris Kessel
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sigmazero13 wrote:

I think it just depends on how much time is being spent/wasted on checking. I don't really "count" the cards, just look for the number of good results, and estimate from there.


Yea, in our game, the cards were counted after almost every single action that flipped a fate card. "Ok, we're at 2 in 17 now left in the deck." Depends on the types of players you've got I guess.
 
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Scott Lewis
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Yeah, that would be a bit excessive. An occasional browse when making a decision is one thing, checking EVERY TIME would be a pain.

I can really only see myself doing that prior to a Diplomacy or Quest draw; trying to figure out the odds for combat wouldn't be worth it.
 
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