Tim Korchnoi
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Just saw this on yahoo news so I thought I would share:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100211/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_arg...
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James Fung
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Re: Round Two Anyone?
Reasons why the last war escalated from international crisis to shooting war:

1) Argentina's junta was near collapse due to a poor economy, and they wanted a patriotic war to distract the populace.

2) The British majority party was facing losing the next election also because of the economy and Cold War events.

2b) ... which is why they were forced to cut back on support for a far flung dependency like the Falklands, signaling to Argentina they wouldn't fight for them.

2c) ... yet they couldn't risk the political backlash of not fighting for them.

3) Both sides expected the other to back down, but neither could without losing national control.

Given the world's present economic environment, how's the checklist matching up?
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Tim Korchnoi
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Re: Round Two Anyone?
fusag wrote:
Reasons why the last war escalated from international crisis to shooting war:

1) Argentina's junta was near collapse due to a poor economy, and they wanted a patriotic war to distract the populace.

2) The British majority party was facing losing the next election also because of the economy and Cold War events.

2b) ... which is why they were forced to cut back on support for a far flung dependency like the Falklands, signaling to Argentina they wouldn't fight for them.

2c) ... yet they couldn't risk the political backlash of not fighting for them.

3) Both sides expected the other to back down, but neither could without losing national control.

Given the world's present economic environment, how's the checklist matching up?


Is that a rhetorical question?
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Dan Hodges
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Re: Round Two Anyone?
...playtesting of Where There Is Discord - The 2010 Oil War commences next week...
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Dan Hodges
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Re: Round Two Anyone?

...here we go...

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/2858607/Falklands-...
 
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James Fung
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Re: Round Two Anyone?
Well, hopefully that snips point (2b) above in the bud.
 
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Tim Korchnoi
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Re: Round Two Anyone?
The plot thickens

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100223/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_lat...
 
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Paul Osborne
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Re: Round Two Anyone? Update: 2/23 The Plot Thickens
In the news last week:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8547639.stm

 
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James Fung
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Re: Round Two Anyone? Update: 2/23 The Plot Thickens
What is US foreign policy regarding a conflict between a long-time ally and a nation in the Americas? Or are pan-American ties (like the Organization of American States) waning in favor of groups like the Rio Group, Union of South American Nations, and Organization of Ibero-American States?
 
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Tim Korchnoi
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Re: Round Two Anyone? Update: 2/23 The Plot Thickens
fusag wrote:
What is US foreign policy regarding a conflict between a long-time ally and a nation in the Americas? Or are pan-American ties (like the Organization of American States) waning in favor of groups like the Rio Group, Union of South American Nations, and Organization of Ibero-American States?


Our South American policy has been murky as of late, and by late I mean both with Obama as well as W. Clinton did visit with the leader of Argentina in an unscheduled visit last month, but it does not appear as if we are clearly on one side or the other.
The latest issue of The Economist noted that the British drilling that took place in the Falklands recently found an unappreciable commerical oil deposits, but it also noted that they are going to drill again this month. I figure this will blow over.....unless the Brits find oil. Then, we may see some, ah, shall we say "movement" whistle
 
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James Fung
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Oil: it's not just for the middle east anymore.
 
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James Fung
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Probably preaching to the choir, but here's a quick history concerning the Falklands up to now.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/political-comebacks-c...
 
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Dave Langdon
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You never know but lets hope not.

From a generalised military viewpoint the UK could still put up a very good fight, the current Royal Navy is less than half the size of 1982 but its ships have been modernised including its biggest ship HMS Ocean and better amphibious capability with the Bay class and Albion class. The new Type 45 destroyer has been declared as effective as five Type 42's put together. If the 2 new Elisabeth aircraft carriers do enter service again the UKS force is pushed on another military generation. And not forgetting the UK has been fighting almost constantly since 1991, so there is a much higher level of combat experience than 1982.

As far as I know Argentina has not spent much on defence to move on from losses in 1982 or modernisation.

A big plus if they did take the Falklands would be the use of the current runway which is a full capability military runway...that said the Falklands is much better defended than 1982, so in itself it would require a much higher level of military prowess to take it than previously demonstrated.

Argentinas chance of winning the football world cup this year is massively higher than Englands though.
 
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James Fung
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I just hope fewer ships doesn't mean the Royal Navy has put all its eggs in one basket. There's perennial muttering on the naval warfare folder in CSW about how about between present-day ships with aluminum superstructures and modern weapons with large payloads, ships are effectively one-hit-one-mission-kill.
 
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Dave Langdon
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Well if its any basket its a Falklands one, the new frigates and destroyers are designed with sea skimming missiles in mind. Alround the Navy is more capable by far than it was and it is modern and undergoing further upgrades.

The Argentine fleet is based around the latest exocet but with a very limited number of ships. The new Astute class submarine with latest Tomahawk capability would be the foil to these.

I agree though modern warfare could be very one hit one kill, but being at the cutting edge is important for any conflict...and i think the majority of countries around the world struggle with that budgetwise, and the UK is no exception.
 
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