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Twilight Struggle» Forums » Strategy

Subject: Probability of success for realignments and coups rss

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Jerome Chan
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I just got the game a few days ago. I did a precursory search of the forums and didn't find any discussion on probabilities so I wrote a python script to generate them.

Coup probabilities.

Stability 1, Max gain 8 influence
Offset Success
1 83.3
2 100.0
3 100.0
4 100.0

Stability 2, Max gain 6 influence
Offset Success
1 50.0
2 66.6
3 83.3
4 100.0

Stability 3, Max gain 4 influence
Offset Success
1 16.6
2 33.3
3 50.0
4 66.6

Stability 4, Max gain 2 influence
Offset Success
1 0.0
2 0.0
3 16.6
4 33.3

Realignment Probabilities

Offset Success Max_Gain
0 41.6 5
1 58.3 6
2 72.2 7
3 83.3 8
4 91.6 9
5 97.2 10
6 100.0 11
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That's nice, but can you explain what the numbers actually mean? What's the "offset"? Is that the amount of influence held by the opponent, or the net modifier, or the value of the ops card?

And what about the mitigating factors for realignments such as control of adjacent countries, not to mention the factor of multiple consecutive attempts?
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I spent a few minutes looking over this earlier this morning, and it looks like the "offset" column is OPS value, and the percentage chance represents the odds of removing/adding at least one IP. For one thing, I don't need a computer program to tell me those odds. If I coup a 3-stability country with a 4OPs card, it is obvious that I have a 66% chance of "success," if success is defined as, "not a complete waste of OPs." However, if I'm couping the Soviets in Iraq in the early game, and they have a single IP, then I actually do have a 66% chance of success, as my goal is simply to remove an entry point in the MidEast. Which is just to say that "success" is entirely situational. OPs and Stability are only two factors. How many IPs are already present, and what the coup is meant to accomplish are the other, vastly more important factors.

I do want to know what the numbers for realignments mean, as it's not immediately obvious (to me) what the chances of success are with a +X modifier. I can figure out for myself how those odds stack up over multiple rolls.
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Richard Sampson
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I think with the realignment it is:

offset - + modifiers for various things
success - chances of having a higher roll with modifiers applied
max_gain - maximum amount of influence you can remove, for example, with a +6 mod, you could 'roll' an 12 and your opponent a '1' so you would win by 11 and the opponent could lose 11 influence (heh) if they had it there.

This is very nice. If you want to make it a little more complete you should add 5 ops to coups since these are very possible (China card and at least 1 other). Also while it is perfectly simple to gain realign info for negative modifiers, it's probably worth while to include that information as well.
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Gordon Stewart
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ras2124 wrote:
for example, with a +6 mod, you could 'roll' an 12 and your opponent a '1'

At first blush I thought you were using two dice;
since a +6 realignment roll would be hard to achieve.
Good point though.

More useful would be adding columns for
chances of removing 2 or more and
chance of a "backfire" removing yours (if any).

ras2124 wrote:
This is very nice.

Whole-heartedly agree.
 
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Jerome Chan
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leroy43 wrote:
That's nice, but can you explain what the numbers actually mean? What's the "offset"? Is that the amount of influence held by the opponent, or the net modifier, or the value of the ops card?

And what about the mitigating factors for realignments such as control of adjacent countries, not to mention the factor of multiple consecutive attempts?


In coups, the offset is the value of the ops card you played for the coup. In realiangments, that's the value of the total modifiers for you. I will put in the negative offsets later.
 
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Riku Riekkinen
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There has been this thread before: http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/300743/realignment-rolls

I would like to see that one enlargened to have also your IPs 1-3 (= 4 times the table) and -1 modifier . Too lazy to do that myself
 
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