Kenny Jenkins
Switzerland
Bern
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Bojan Ramadanovic
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Kenny, you owe me 9 minutes of my life back

This is not even the Pascal's wager. It is even worse than that. Because it asks us to trade certainty of global economic depression (which is his "column A" default scenario - because depression happens even if global warming ends up being true, it will not bounce economy magically) for eliminating potentially small risk of huge catastrophe.

If one buys the basic premise of this guy - i.e. economic costs would be catastrophically huge then exactly contrary to his argument *only* responsible decision would be to do nothing and hope for the best. Any risk manager can tell you that certain catastrophic loss is less bad then smaller likelihood of even more catastrophic loss.

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Eric "Shippy McShipperson" Mowrer
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Lapppi wrote:


OMG, he's right! I just did the same decision chart about being invaded by giant aliens that will destroy 70% of the population of the earth. We need to start building the grand cannon in Alaska IMMEDIATELY!
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Chad Ellis
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Eric beat me to it. I want to sell this guy some very specific insurance policies.

Me, talking to this guy wrote:
Let me draw you a matrix of the four possibilities surrounding this "protection from meteors striking all of the restaurants and entertainment places within 100 miles of where you live" policy...
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Chad Ellis
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bramadan wrote:
If one buys the basic premise of this guy - i.e. economic costs would be catastrophically huge then exactly contrary to his argument *only* responsible decision would be to do nothing and hope for the best. Any risk manager can tell you that certain catastrophic loss is less bad then smaller likelihood of even more catastrophic loss.


That's not true at all, unless the "catastrophic" is really so bad that nothing is functionally worse.

If the choices were "100% economic depression" and "10% nothing, 90% entire population of the Earth tortured to death" I don't think many of us would choose to roll the d10.

Any matrix-based analysis like this requires valuations of both the percentages of the non-choice axis and the utility of all outcomes.
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This "global depression" myth must go. It all depends on how you do it. Some countries have taken drastic measures already. You see any depression? I don't.
 
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Scott Russell
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Clarkston
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Mondainai wrote:
This "global depression" myth must go. It all depends on how you do it. Some countries have taken drastic measures already. You see any depression? I don't.


Hey, you're right. I've not read about any countries having any economic problems since......

the last time I read something?

I do agree that economic issues probably aren't directly tied to global warming prevention economic policies.
 
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