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Subject: M'44 hit % charts rss

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John O'Haver
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I'm going to insert this thread in the middle of my Battle of Jutland narrative since it'll be several days before I can get back to that.

Three things prompted this entry tonight...stress induced insomia, I'll write myself to sleep, and the next two...

Just in case you haven't noticed, a mysterious mathematician graciously fleshed out my simple best guess hit probabilty tables for M'44 and Battle Cry on the M'44 game page. Some of you may have already done the calcs yourself. If not, print them out and look 'em over!

I am grateful he did this because I could only calculate the chances of a complete miss and conversely, the "at least one hit" hit percentages but that doesn't really tell you enough to win more games.

The other thread that got me thinking is the "Risk in Conflict" Journal entry. I really suspect some gamers who are new to war gaming aren't making good risk and target assessments. I remember reading many months ago a request for tactical advice from the beginning Battle Cry player who wrote that every time he leads the charge with his artillery it gets blown away. This is not to poke fun at him. I'm history buff and long time wargamer but I did smile. He may have never played any type of war game. BC has been described by some as Euro/war cross over. I've never played a Euro-game. Not one! At some point I may write an article asking for advice about what to do with sheep. I digress...

"Luck" is certainly a factor in most wargames. In these two games cards determine how many units may have a fire opportunity that turn. Since one's control over that is limited by hand size and card distribution (luck), it is even more important that a player maximize the effectiveness of his shots when he gets them.

Battle Cry games, since victory is soley dependent on eliminating entire units, often hinge on the "which of 2 available targets should I shoot at decision." Is it better to roll 4 dice against the full strength cavalry (less hit icons) or 3 dice against the 3 figure Infantry unit (less dice). Do you know?

Sometimes the % differences are small but I feel better knowing that I took my best shot.

Check out the chart. Do not consult it before every shot...it's a quick playing game...but do get a clue. I think you might win more games.
 
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Mary Weisbeck
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M44
Could a female Euro gamer enjoy M44? Is it too big, too many rules, too much calculation?

And I'd be very leary of seeking advice from *this* crowd on "what to do with sheep"! laugh
 
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Gary Webster
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Sheep, and Battle Cry!
scrib,

I'd definitely shoot at the infantry, with two for one on the hit probability; even though it's only a 1/3 chance per die, the odds of a hit are better.

About the sheep, never get caught in a game of Settlers suggesting "wood for sheep," or you'll never hear the end of it! laugh
 
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Kevin Felker
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This is not a game with a lot of calculation. The only calculating you do is your range - any modifiers

For Infantry you have 3 range, so you can use 3 dice max...If your opponent is hiding in woods or behind sandags, you substract one, so 3-1 = 2.

Simple right?

I think so.

Regarding the second comment, hitting infantry is actually a 3:6 ratio when you include a grenade, versus a 2:6 ratio for tanks and a 1:6 ratio (grenade only) for artillery.

Also, if you flank the target, as in move between the opponent and their side of the board, and a Retreat Flag rolls up and they can't move towards their side of the board, that's another hit.

So if you're flanking an infantry, that would a 4:6 hit ratio...etc.
 
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John O'Haver
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Just trying to help...
"This is not a game with a lot of calculation. The only calculating you do is your range - any modifiers"

For that I'm grafeful but..

Kevin,

I really just wanted to make sure the BC/M'44 community at large was aware of this player aid.

I'm familiar with the game system through BC and I like it alot. Perhaps everything in my late night thread was not well phrased but to answer my own question...

Per the mystery mathematician,
Infantry rolling 4 dice versus a 3 figure cavalry unit has an 11% chance of killing the Cav in one shot. Same Infantry unit rolling only 3 dice at a 3 figure Infantry unit has a 13% chance of killing the Infantry target. Ok, let me think... 2 divided by 11 could be an 18% increase in the probability of winning the last victory Flag in BC or medal in M'44.

I'll take any advantage I can get no matter how small. I have to think this way to be competitive...my primary opponent does it intuitively! The which is better, more dice or fewer dice and more hit icons, answer was not obvious to me.

The one thing I did not get into last night was the risk assessment of what happens if I don't get the game winning flag kill with my shot. The Command card deck is slightly weighted toward the Center section and units that are bi-hexual can be activated by a Center or correct Flank card.

(Oh yeah, I used to card count the Black sixes and the Red Fives and Sixes in Up Front).


I guess the vague point of combining this thread with Risk in Conflict is there may be players complaining about luck being overwhelmingly the deciding factor in these great games when poor tactical choices are turning average luck into "bad luck."

I love this game engine for a lot of reasons so...Come to Louisville and bring your M'44. We'll go to The Patton Armor Museum and see all the WW II tanks including the cutaway King Tiger Tank for inspiration and then I'll kick your ass in M'44.

laugh
 
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Kevin Felker
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Probably so, I've only played the intro scenario cool

And this is my first wargame too
 
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