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Subject: Statistical breakdown of 99 non-starting cards cards rss

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Piotr Konieczny
Poland
Katowice
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Note: because there are 99 cards, I am not giving you chances for drawing - they are almost the same as with 100 cards, so figure them out

11 events
* 5 demand cards, 1 for each: dyes, salt, spices, tobacco, cacao
** note: no demands cards for pearls, silver, cotton, horses or sugar
* 4 war cards: 1 for each France, Britain, Netherlands and Spain. No war card for Courland.
* 2 specials: Comet and TYW (again, will not affect Courland).

17 fleets that break down as follows
* 7 Dutch
* 6 British
* 3 French
* 1 Protestant (note: this is the only fleet with a religious affiliation AND with no national affiliation)
Quality distribution seems relatively balanced, with the best fleet being British (A), second best Dutch (B) and third best, French (C), However, places 4-6 are occupied by more Dutch Fleets (E, H, J). Then French (L), the Protestant fleet (M) and only then the British fleet (N). Then some relatively mixed trailers follow, with the French (X) fleet being the worst.

29 mordida cards that break down as follows:
* notes: highest number, 98, lowest, 1
* 4 mordidas are ranked with a crown number of 10 or lower
* 6 mordidas are ranked as 20 or lower
* 14 mordidas are ranked as 50 or lower
* 15 mordidas are ranked as 51 or higher
* 7 mordidas are ranked as 80 or higher
* 4 mordidas are ranked as 90 or higher
The distribution seems roughly normal.
There are 2 French, 2 British, 2 Dutch and 3 Spanish mordidas. 20 mordidas have no national affiliation.
There are 11 Catholic, 4 Protestant and 2 Heathen mordidas. 12 mordidas have no religious affiliation,
7 mordidas have both a national and religious affiliation.

16 heathen colonies

27 colonies, that break down as follows:
by size:
* 6 size 1
* 6 size 2
* 15 size 3
by nationality:
* 5 French
* 5 British
* 5 Netherlands
* 1 Courland
* 11 Spanish
by religion
* 5 Protestant
* 7 Catholic
* 15 no religious affiliation (please note from errata: From errata: The Courlander player, who has no religious affinities, has no religious advantage when bidding upon cards that also have no religious affinities.)
by years to mature:
* 2 1y (salt, pearl)
* 22 2y
* 5 3y (3 x silver, 2 x cacao)
by goods produced
* 8 tobacco**
* 4 dyes
* 3 spices**
* 3 silver
* 2 cotton**
* 2 pearls (note: affected by the 5% peal bed exhaustion event)
* 2 horses
* 2 cacao
* 1 salt
** note: only spices, tobacco and cotton can be upgraded to sugar (7% chance of being affected by locusts)

Some thoughts on colonies:
* max size is not that important, considering how long it takes for a colony to grow
* dyes, salt, spices, tobacco, cacao can be affected by increased demand (but the chance of that are very small - 1%)
* tobacco and spices and be both affected by double demand and later doubled as sugar with mills
* pearls, silver, cotton, horses can neither be affected by increase demand nor converted to sugar
Overall, demand & conversion (tobacco and spices) plantations seem to be the best, followed by plantation only (cotton), than demand only (dyes, salt and cacao). Silver and horses have no advantages, and the worst of the worst are pearlbeds (which are affected by a dedicated bad event).

There are, total:
by nationality
* 12 British cards (5 fleets, 5 colonies, 2 mordidas)
* 1 Courland card (1 colony)
* 14 Dutch cards (7 fleets, 5 colonies, 2 mordidas)
* 10 French cards (3 fleets, 5 colonies, 2 mordidas)
* 14 Spanish cards (11 colonies, 3 mordidas)

by religion
* 18 Catholic cards (11 mordidas, 7 colonies)
* 10 Protestant cards (4 mordidas, 5 colonies and 1 fleet)

* 18 Heathen cards (16 colonies, 2 mordidas)
** note: heathen cards never have a nationality
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Gary Pressler
United States
West Lafayette
Indiana
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Nice analysis. I need to get this to the table, and being able to give players some expectation on what can happen should be helpful.
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Nicolai Broen Thorning
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Ebeltoft
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Very nice... thank you.
 
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