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Subject: What is the probability of each possible pig roll? rss

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Dmitry Goretsky
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There are many possible combinations in this game. But what are their probabilities?!
 
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David Bush
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That may depend on a variety of external factors: the surface you roll them on, the means you use to roll them (for example, what height you drop them from or how greasy your hands are), the temperature, the relative humidity, the ambient vibration level (are people walking around), which precise set you use (manufacturers use different injection mold templates and different materials), and who knows what else. If you really want to know the probabilities for the set you use, you could roll them 1000 times with the same conditions you are likely to play under, and record the results for a rough approximation.
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david landes
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Double leaning jowler = 0
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Fraser
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Back in the days when there were less maps we played every map back to back
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Ooh a little higher, now a bit to the left, a little more, a little more, just a bit more. Oooh yes, that's the spot!
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What David said.

Some are quite common and some are really rare.

To quote from the play Serious Money "As I live and breathe, a double leaning jowler!"
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Nick Case
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I neither know, nor care.
 
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Seth Owen
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Given that the pigs are irregular shaped and made of a flexible material I don't believe a probability can be determined.
 
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david landes
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Having played a fair # of games over the years, here is a VERY thumb in the wind estimate:
- Pig out - 30%
- Sider - 30%
- Razorback/Trotter 20%
- Snouter 5%
- Jowler 1%
- Combo of scorers 14%

This is VERY notional, but probably not horribly wrong. If you feel driven, keep a running tab over a few hundred rolls.

Also, it turns out that rolls are extremely influenced by a player's emotions. Kids who just KNOW they will roll something good have better odds of doing so and adults with fear in their hearts have a higher percentage of pig outs.
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Lexi Strider
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I am a mathmatician and enjoy analysing games for the best outcomes and can assure you that this is absolute rubbish.
Emotions do not come into odds whatsoever. Yes in tennis or football or any sport of skill. But saying that I can influence the roll of a dice with emotion - or the outcome of a pass the pigs throw with emotion is complete trash.

The surface arguably has little also to do with the outcome of a roll as it will affect every throw not just the potential double jowler throws.

the only way to come to a conclusion here is to throw the pigs alot of times and record the outcome. With no knowledge of how you are holding them or how hard you throw them this is a fair test. However to get a good idea, possibly 20000 throws would have to be recorded. The closer to infinite throws the more accurate your prediction.



I have played many games, far over 100 throws and have never seen a double leaning jowler. I very much doubt the odds are as high as 1%
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Jason Krozel
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I found the following numbers at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pass_the_Pigs:
The approximate relative frequencies of the various positions (for a single pig), using a standardized surface and trap-door rolling device and a sample size of 11,954, are:
Position___________Percentage______Variable
Right Side (no dot).....34.9%...........R
Left Side (dot).........30.2%...........L
Razorback...............22.4%...........Z
Trotter..................8.8%...........T
Snouter..................3.0%...........S
Leaning Jowler...........0.61%..........J
Reference: Kern, JC (2006). "Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities". Journal of Statistics Education 14 (3).

I assigned the variables and using what I know about probability and rolling dice, constructed the following set of formulae:
Above adds to 99.91%; it’s not the full 100 due to rounding. This will creep into our computations. So the probabilities of rolling the following are…
A “pig out,” which is (LxR) + (RxL) = (34.9*30.2)+(30.2*34.9)= 21.1%
A sider is (RxR)+(LxL)= 21.3%
A razorback is (L+R)xZ + Zx(L+R) = 29.2%
A double razorback is ZxZ = 5.0%
A trotter is (L+R)xT + Tx(L+R) = 11.5%
A double trotter is TxT = .8%
A snouter is (L+R)xS + Sx(L+R) = 3.9%
A double snouter is SxS = .1%
A leaning jowler is (L+R)xJ + Jx(L+R) =.8%
A double leaning jowler is JxJ = .004%, or 1 in 25,000
Mixed combos:
ZxH = 3.9%
ZxS = 1.3%
ZxJ = 2.7%
HxS = .5%
HxJ = .1%
SxJ = .04%
The above adds to 102.244%, which should be attributable to the earlier uncertainty being compounded by computation (someone else can check my math, if you like).

Note you cannot roll an oinker on a single pig, as these combinations have more to do with how the pigs relate to each other instead of their individual positions, so it is really a metaposition, as the pigs could (in theory) be in any of the above positions (as well as positions not otherwise possible because of leaning effects) and an oinker. Piggyback is just a special case of oinker.

This data would indicate that you would have the best chances on hog calling razorbacks, as the gain would be 10 points (a twenty-point swing) on the most likely roll in the game.
Any given roll has a slightly better than 50% chance to be a razorback or a pig out, either of which is a good outcome for the hog-caller and a bad one for the roller. Throw in the sider which is the other most likely outcome, and the caller’s risk is 2 points (a four-point swing). The chances of one of these three rolls coming up are about 72%, which point-wise makes hog-calling a razorback a rather low-risk move. Just don’t blame me when you mis-call a 60 point roll!
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Flying Arrow
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board_game_analyst wrote:
I am a mathmatician and enjoy analysing games for the best outcomes and can assure you that this is absolute rubbish.
Emotions do not come into odds whatsoever.


If you're using a dice tower or something like that, sure. But with the oddly shaped pigs, a high velocity roll is probably less likely to end up with a jowler or snouter than a low velocity roll. That probably doesn't actually affect the probabilities very much, and also probably isn't what's happening in dxlk3's case, but the pigs make it not as simple as other odds analysis problems.
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Was George Orwell an Optimist?
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You guys are going to laugh when you hear this, but not only did I play a bazillion games of Pigmania back in the day with my kids, but I also wrote a windows program for it. Basically just screwing around, never fancied it up, but the results felt pretty close to the real thing. I'm tempted to dig up the old source files and see what numbers I was using.
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