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Subject: Diplomacy commentary - BGG05-2 rss

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Rod Spade
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Spring 1911 move:

http://www.floc.net/observer.py?judge=DEDO&game=bgg052&page=...

Why did A/I pull back from Mun? Germany can now retake it, though this risks Ber. But I think that's a good tradeoff.

Italy can force Lvp with English help. Germany needs to protect both Nth and Nwg, but has insufficient fleets to do it - unless he wants to risk letting Italy walk into Lon.

Russia should do Pru S War, War S StP-Mos, and ask Germany to tap Sil. That will buy him a little time, but the situation is dire regardless....

Of course, the best thing to do would be to split up the A/I alliance - but that depends on the relationships between the players, on which I am not able to comment....
 
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Michael @mgouker
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I don't think Warsaw is in danger because Russia can forward retreat into Ukraine and then be behind Austrian lines. Austria can afford to wait for the Russian disband and then play against a weaker opponent who can only cover one center effectively. My guess is that Russia will make its stand in St Pete. England is in the worst possible situation - at the mercy of Italy and essentially an adopted unit of the Italian navy.

It seems to me given this that Russia should not defend Warsaw, but instead use the Prussian army to support Berlin and let Germany retake Munich. If Warsaw falls, either Galicia or Silesia have to occupy it and that will leave a hole in the Austrian line. If Austria moves from Budapest to Galicia or covers Rumania with Sevastopol than Moscow could be attacked from Warsaw with St Pete support. This might work out better for Russia than trying to play a static defense.

For Germany to have a chance it must divide Austria and Italy. I think the tendency is for this to happen. If Austria is kicked from Munich it is nicely set up against Venice. Austria is better situated to stab Italy than vice versa and this has never been so true in the game. Italy really seems unbeatable though. With Germany curling back, it looks like the major Italian force will fall first upon Britannia and then upon Scandinavia. That's already the 6 SCs needed. With the builds, Italy can protect itself well enough against Austrian duplicity. Austria's road is much harder and a 17/17 seems very hard to pull off with Italy's work almost done.

Germany should be making every possible overture to Austria, but it should be pretty obvious that there are layers of other than Diplomacy stuff going on. Germany has apparently upset Austria beyond reason and Austria is not playing only to win but to prove a point. We shall see how far they are willing to go before they reach an amiable resolution or whip out bigger knives.

 
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