Today I had a fairly standard game of Liar's Dice (meaning Big Fun) up until the end, but the end was particularly exciting. I had struggled through a terrible dice deficit for most of the game, but finally made it to heads-up play against only 1 other opponent. We each had only a single die remaining.
I rolled a star. I think having a star in this situation is a difficult hand to deal with if you have to bid first. And I was first to bid.
If I bid one star, and she believed I had a star, I was sunk, as she could just bid two of whatever she had and it would be all over. Maybe she'd challenge it though, giving me the win. It would all depend on whether I could make her think I was bluffing the star.
Bidding 1 of a number was a possibility, with 6 being the best bet. But she would probably assume that I had that number, leaving her nothing to do but bid 2 of whatever she had. In this case, that would be the correct move and I would lose. If she challenged my single die call, I would win. The needed move would be to bid 6 then make her think I was bluffing.
The only way I could see to go straight for the win would be to bid 2 of whatever she had. Since there were only 2 dice in the game, she would have no choice but to challenge this bid. If my math's right, that gave me a 1/3 chance of hitting on a pure guess.
I decided on the last option, as I had not been doing a good job of sneaking bluffs (or bluffing a bluff) by her, but I thought I could get her to crack. I began to interrogate her. "You have a star? A 2? A 4? Is it a 4?" This was no game of chance. This was a purely psychological battle. "I'll bet you have a 6. Or is it a 5?" I thought I saw a flicker in her eyes. "It's a 5 isn't it? You've got a 5, don't you?" I thought I perceived a slight shadow cross her ostensibly open and unconcerned face. I had made my decision to go for it.
"Two 5's". Challenge. Bingo, she had a 5. I had the star.
Going on the offense turned out to be the right decision. A very satisfying win!