Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
6 Posts

Bridge» Forums » Strategy

Subject: What are the odds on this card combination? rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
David Williams
United States
Tennessee
flag msg tools
mbmbmbmbmb
J98 (dummy) opposite Q7x (hand)

This is a side suit in a trump contract. You have enough trumps to lead from either side as many times as you want to, but there are not enough trumps to strip the hand for an ironclad endplay.

Statistically, is it superior to lead low to an honor, winning if you have luckily led past AK in the same hand? If your honor is overtaken, it appears you still have a 50/50 finesse for the 10 on your way back.

I led low toward the J, but neglected to factor in that my left hand opponent didn't lead a high club on the go, therefore NOT likely having both AK. The hook of the 10 lost as well, and I didn't take a trick in the suit. Had I thought about the opening lead, and led low towards my hand, the hook of the 10 would then have fortunately worked (just good luck), but I think I would have also catered to a possible AK on my right.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Romain Jacques
Canada
Gatineau
Québec
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
As you probably know, before the hands are played, the odds are 25% for AK at your left, 25% at your right and 50% of the time they are split. The 10 at your left or at your right is a fifty fifty proposition. However you could get more information when you are playing the other suits.

Were you able to you count the hand of your opponents? Does the side suit split 3-4, 5-2 or 6-1? If during the play both opponents had a chance to lead and they've never lead the suit, it is almost sure the honnors are split. Did one of them discard the suit? If yes, I would play his partner for the ten unless the suit split 5-2 or 6-1.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Brian Bankler
United States
San Antonio
Texas
flag msg tools
badge
"Keep Summer Safe!"
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Sergo wrote:
J98 (dummy) opposite Q7x (hand)

This is a side suit in a trump contract. You have enough trumps to lead from either side as many times as you want to, but there are not enough trumps to strip the hand for an ironclad endplay.

Statistically, is it superior to lead low to an honor, winning if you have luckily led past AK in the same hand? If your honor is overtaken, it appears you still have a 50/50 finesse for the 10 on your way back.


The best way is to indeed lead towards an honor and then (assuming it lost) finesse against the ten on the way back. Since you have the spots for it, you can lead low towards the jack or queen. (Playing for AK to be in the same hand goes against Restricted Choice).

(Playing weak players, I'd lead the 9 from dummy. Sure, they shouldn't cover ...)

Suitplay (www.suitplay.com) says you have a 63% chance of taking a trick if you have to break the suit. (Which makes sense ... finessing against the T is 50/50, and leading low towards an honor and low back lets you deal with a stiff or doubleton honor in some cases).
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Michael Clark
United Kingdom
Bucks
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Leading the Jack off table should also be considered. It's not the technically best play but I'd wager it's better than 63% against most opponents. This is assuming there's no chance of a stiff honour on either side, which you should be able to rule out by that stage of the hand.
 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Thibault Bloch
France
Unspecified
Unspecified
flag msg tools
designer
mbmbmbmbmb
I don't know the slightest thing about bridge so I took a peek out of curiosity. Well, this thread makes no sense whatsoever.
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Martins Livens
Latvia
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
taurus wrote:
I don't know the slightest thing about bridge so I took a peek out of curiosity. Well, this thread makes no sense whatsoever.


This post neither.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Front Page | Welcome | Contact | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertise | Support BGG | Feeds RSS
Geekdo, BoardGameGeek, the Geekdo logo, and the BoardGameGeek logo are trademarks of BoardGameGeek, LLC.