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Subject: ...must stop... must not... post this.... stop me before I post again!!! rss

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Crap. Sorry folks... I can't help myself. After I took my boy to school I changed to news on the cable and learned that we are having a record-shattering winter. Same in Europe. Probably other places as well but since Russia and China aren't exactly on the daily radar... weather or climate wise... it's not on my radar.

Friends... the winter is barely 1/3 done and NYC area has over twice the normal snow. Same in New England, Pennsylvania and all the way down to Georgia and into Florida. Please... don't tell me I'm confused between "weather" and "climate"... I'm not. Oh what the hell, if it makes you feel superior (and I know it does), go ahead and tell me I'm dumb... again. If your power is back on, I mean. Weather being what it is and all.

And yes, I know the claims that 2010 was "the warmest on record". Which is meaningless considering how long records have been kept and how unreliable the records are for the bulk of that brief period. Still, December 2010 was the 2nd coldest on record dating back to 1659, when record keeping was good if it proves your beliefs and bad if it appears to dispute your beliefs. Weird huh?

Anyway... I thought I'd entertain you with something I was entertained with. Here are some predictions made by the some of the same people who are leading advocates of man-made global/climate/warming/change.

Quote:
1. Within a few years "children just aren't going to know what snow is." Snowfall will be "a very rare and exciting event." Dr. David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, interviewed by the UK Independent, March 20, 2000.


Quote:
2. "[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…[By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers." Michael Oppenheimer, published in "Dead Heat," St. Martin's Press, 1990.


Quote:
3. "Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000." Christian Science Monitor, June 8, 1972.


About that one... while arctic ice has shrunk.. to just under 4 million sq miles, antarctic ice coverage has increased a similar amount. So we lament a few drowning polar bears and ignore thousands of penguins dying because they have to trundle across an additional 1 million sq miles of ice to reach food.

Quote:

4. "Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010." Associated Press, May 15, 1989.


We did "record" a 0.7 degree increase and that Oppenheimer dude said "Hey, that's within the margin of error!". Really? Since when does missing the mark by more than 60% mean you were right?

Quote:
5. "By 1985, air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half." Life magazine, January 1970.


Quote:
6. "If present trends continue, the world will be ... eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age." Kenneth E.F. Watt, in "Earth Day," 1970.


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7. "By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people ... If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000." Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971.


Okay... I admit, I haven't actually been to England since 1982. But I lived and traveled there for well over a decade and it seems to me Ehrlich was pretty much describing England in the 70's anyway. That's not exactly a prediction now, is it?

Quote:
8. "In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish." Ehrlich, speech during Earth Day, 1970


There really is something to be said for having lived through more than one or two decades of dire predictions. Earth Day is a favorite target for my ridicule... and not just because it's celebrated primarily by morons who have no idea that they have been conditioned to believe rather than actually educated. Quotes from one of the founders are always helpful in understanding how idiotic things can get when mob mentality (coupled with excessive dope smoking) replace clear-headed thinking.

Anyway, I feel for my friends in the midwest, east, north east, south and hell, pretty much everywhere but LA who are suffering through the ravages of man-caused global/climate/change/warming. Bundle up and don't drive anywhere if you can. It's pretty fucking cold out there.
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Ben R
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DWTripp wrote:
There really is something to be said for having lived through more than one or two decades of dire predictions. Earth Day is a favorite target for my ridicule... and not just because it's celebrated primarily by morons who have no idea that they have been conditioned to believe rather than actually educated. Quotes from one of the founders are always helpful in understanding how idiotic things can get when mob mentality (coupled with excessive dope smoking) replace clear-headed thinking.


Dope smoking? You realize the Reagan era ended over 30 years ago. And a dope smoking mob mentality? There's an oxymoron.

Also what's wrong with Earth Day? Teaching kids not to litter, admire nature, and be good and thoughtful stewards of the environment is hardly ridiculous. In fact I say the natural theme is in a classical American vein in the spirit of Emerson, Thoreau, Teddy Roosevelt, and Muir.

And yes, I think you do not understand the difference between climate and weather.

Quote:

And yes, I know the claims that 2010 was "the warmest on record". Which is meaningless considering how long records have been kept and how unreliable the records are for the bulk of that brief period.


And how is that meaningless? You think your one month observation is more definitive than years of collected data that is compared? Come on now.
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Clinton Smith
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Ehrlich is an entomologist who specializes in butterflies. That means his opinions about whether England or sea life will exist in the near future are irrelevant. Why do you disagree, DW? Why do you think his opinions on those subjects are relevant?
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You guys are just proving DW's point for him! See, when you disagree with him it's because you want to feel superior, but when he disagrees with you it's because he is a humble servant of Truth.
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we did have a record winter here. Also, one of the warmest years on record. Same year, go figure.
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Venga2 wrote:
we did have a record winter here. Also, one of the warmest years on record. Same year, go figure.


It's pretty simple why it's the same year; 2010 was the warmest year on record, but it was also the wettest year on record. Which means more water vapour in the air. Which means more snow when it gets cold, since the temperature change wasn't enough to eradicate winter.
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True Blue Jon
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We're having the mildest winter ever here in Vancouver, WA.
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Clinton Smith
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DWTripp wrote:
"If present trends continue, the world will be ... eleven degrees colder by the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us in an ice age." Kenneth E.F. Watt, in "Earth Day," 1970.


Watt is a zoologist and an advisor to a group (The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change) that maintains that increased greenhouse emissions are beneficial. A group that received funding from Exxon-Mobil, naturally.

If your point, DW, is that we shouldn't put much stock in the pronouncements of people who venture outside their field of expertise, or in those of people who may profit from funding from mega-polluters, then I'm going to have to agree with you.
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Ed Bradley
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Since being snowed in last month we've had a ludicrously warm January here in SE England. Barely one frosty morning and it's generally been 3-5 degrees above the average.

So I guess warming is back on again!
 
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mightygodking wrote:
Venga2 wrote:
we did have a record winter here. Also, one of the warmest years on record. Same year, go figure.


It's pretty simple why it's the same year; 2010 was the warmest year on record, but it was also the wettest year on record. Which means more water vapour in the air. Which means more snow when it gets cold, since the temperature change wasn't enough to eradicate winter.
Why thank you for the snazzy yet redundant explanation.
 
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mightygodking wrote:


It's pretty simple why it's the same year; 2010 was the warmest year on record, but it was also the wettest year on record. Which means more water vapour in the air. Which means more snow when it gets cold, since the temperature change wasn't enough to eradicate winter.


Kind of like that meteor I saw the other night huh? It wasn't big enough to eradicate Earth. Phew!

Oh, by the way guys... this thread is actually about predictions... not global/climate/warming/change. But global/climate/warming/change is a subject that just begs for predictions...usually dire ones.
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OK, here's a prediction...

In playing Yahtzee, someone will roll a Yahtzee on the first roll over the course of the next 10 years or so. Could even happen a few times.

But that doesn't make it a pattern to refute the laws of science.
 
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More Tripp shite.

I can see why he needs the toilet roll badge.
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Mac Mcleod
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Having lived through dire predictions and rosy predictions, I have to say they are unreliable... a lot.

In both directions.

And there is usually a *small* contingent who has it right and everyone else is ignoring them.

---
As for Watt in 1970... do you think he was already corrupted by the oil industry 42 years ago or that he already held a certain world view on his own so they funded him?
 
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Clinton Smith
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DWTripp wrote:
Oh, by the way guys... this thread is actually about predictions... not global/climate/warming/change. But global/climate/warming/change is a subject that just begs for predictions...usually dire ones.


And AGW deniers love the fact that the plumb craziest and absolute direst of the dire predictions exist. An intriguing phenomenon.
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Clinton Smith
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maxo-texas wrote:

As for Watt in 1970... do you think he was already corrupted by the oil industry 42 years ago or that he already held a certain world view on his own so they funded him?


Not sure that we should really care about the answer. He's a zoologist.
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Stirlingmoomoo wrote:
More Tripp shite.

I can see why he needs the toilet roll badge.


Right. Which, I suspect, makes me the only RSP regular who is honest about what I post.
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Chad Ellis
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Let me see if I have the formula right. (Tripp, you'll have to confirm.)

1. Tripp makes a post about AGW. It includes one or more of the following:

A. A comment about how much snow we're having or how cold it is in some specific location, followed immediately by a comment that he knows the difference between weather.
B. Wildly inaccurate predictions by people about the consequences of AGW -- preferably people who are not or were not experts in the field.
C. Insults about people who believe in AGW combined with statements about how they insult anyone who doesn't.

2. A wide range of folks spring into action to rebut his post.

3. Tripp calls his current wife/girlfriend (I forget which, but she's hot IIRC) over and says, "Check it out, these guys are easier than those pigeons that got drugs whenever they pushed a button!" She gives him a beer and says, "You're so mean."
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Now Chad... remember, the computer-controlled moderation unit that was surgically implanted into Octavian's forehead is programmed to ferret out and severely punish any user who accuses another user of trolling.

Thankfully the software that has now replaced Octavian's brain still needs some tweaking before it is able to recognize inference and abstract concepts.

Oh, and what I said to her was, "Check it out, these guys are exactly like those pigeons that got drugs whenever they pushed a button!"
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DWTripp wrote:
Now Chad... remember, the computer-controlled moderation unit that was surgically implanted into Octavian's forehead is programmed to ferret out and severely punish any user who accuses another user of trolling.


The site rules prohibit publicly accusing others of violating site rules. Are you accusing Chad of violating that rule?

-MMM
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Octavian wrote:
DWTripp wrote:
Now Chad... remember, the computer-controlled moderation unit that was surgically implanted into Octavian's forehead is programmed to ferret out and severely punish any user who accuses another user of trolling.


The site rules prohibit publicly accusing others of violating site rules. Are you accusing Chad of violating that rule?

-MMM


Not at all. I think I was actually accusing you of having a mechanical device implanted in your forehead and mind control software running in your brain.
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DWTripp wrote:
Not at all. I think I was actually accusing you of having a mechanical device implanted in your forehead and mind control software running in your brain.


I think most of us could agree that Tripp has calmed down a bit lately, and has been playing by the rules. We could possibly agree that it just isn't as fun, or dangerous, as when he is on his game.

Can we give him a freebie so that he can let'er rip?

BTW, it was not too cold today in Ohio, and it is snowing a bit right now. I expect it to be cloudy tomorrow, and we're all doomed.
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Quote:
Friends... the winter is barely 1/3 done and NYC area has over twice the normal snow. Same in New England, Pennsylvania and all the way down to Georgia and into Florida. Please... don't tell me I'm confused between "weather" and "climate"... I'm not. Oh what the hell, if it makes you feel superior (and I know it does), go ahead and tell me I'm dumb... again. If your power is back on, I mean. Weather being what it is and all.
In other words, the weather is changing.

What's your point?

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while we are having more rain during this summer than the past 75+ years IIRC. Breaking the records from last year. It is hotter where I am and raining so much that on Rio de Janeiro almost 1000 died because of tHe rains. So yes, things are screwed.
 
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Chad Ellis
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DWTripp wrote:
Now Chad... remember, the computer-controlled moderation unit that was surgically implanted into Octavian's forehead is programmed to ferret out and severely punish any user who accuses another user of trolling.


It might interest you to know that the following analogy almost made it into this year's SAT verbal exam:

Trolling : DWTripp post as California Girls : _________

The correct answer was something by Mozart, IIRC.
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