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Subject: To Hit Frequency and Concealed cards rss

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Pascal TOUPY
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Hi
I don't understand how the concealed cards work against the To Hit frequency according to 25.6.

If a mortar has a THF of 3 and i play a -2 Concealed card, its THF is downed to 1?

Another mortar has a THF of 1 and I play -3 concealed card, what will be the new THF?

Thanks

pascal
 
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Cosmic Charlie
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When you say THF of 3, do you mean 0-3? If that's the case, than the to hit range drops to 0-1.

A THF of 0-1 which has a -3 concealment played on it would go as so:

0-1 unmodified
0 -1 concealment
1 -2 concealment
2 -3 concealment

You would need to than draw a 2 to get a hit, or a black 2 against a moving target.

Concealment first decreases the range of numbers you need to draw down to one number (0, the most common single random number in the deck) and each successive concealment makes it more difficult to hit, so you "raise" the number needed to hit to numbers less common in the deck.
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Richard Irving
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bonzillou wrote:
Hi
I don't understand how the concealed cards work against the To Hit frequency according to 25.6.

If a mortar has a THF of 3 and i play a -2 Concealed card, its THF is downed to 1?

Another mortar has a THF of 1 and I play -3 concealed card, what will be the new THF?


To Hit #'s work on spectrum like this:

Easier 0-5, 0-4, 0-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Harder

A Concealment card moves the To Hit# that many steps to the right in this spectrum: So in your example: To Hit 3 become To Hit of 5 when an Conceal -2 is played.

If the To Hit 0-1, a -2 Conceal would make it To Hit 1.

Two other important Ordnance rules:
- Malfunctions are ONLY checked on the To Hit Draw. These are marked with a lower case x. Once a hit is obtained, any red 6 that comes up does not malfunction the weapon.
- For non AT ordnance weapons (i.e. unboxed effect #'s), the RNC # of the To Hit draw is added (color does not matter) is added to the Effect # of the weapon, ONLY if a 0 would have been a hit. (i.e. The To Hit # is 0-N.)

So if you had a 0-2 To hit with mortar and draw a red 1 to get a hit, the Effect number is 2 + 1 = 3.

However if your opponent played a -3 concealment, making your To Hit # 1, the same 1 would still cause a hit, but it is no longer added, so the effect remains 2.

This accounts for the increased chance of a direct hit at closer ranges. It also means you see most conceal cards played vs. ordnance when the To Hit # is 0-1 or higher, it decreases the chance and possibly the final effect. Whereas in your examples, concealing only makes a low chance of hit even lower. (And it's very annoying when you play a concealment card to turn a miss into a hit!)
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Pascal TOUPY
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I really thank you Richard and wacky for clarifying the situation.
I know how to dig in now and avoid the MTRs
 
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Craig Tenhoff
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And remember, avoid the woods if their are mortars....
 
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William Garramone
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rri1 wrote:
bonzillou wrote:
Hi
I don't understand how the concealed cards work against the To Hit frequency according to 25.6.

If a mortar has a THF of 3 and i play a -2 Concealed card, its THF is downed to 1?

Another mortar has a THF of 1 and I play -3 concealed card, what will be the new THF?


To Hit #'s work on spectrum like this:

Easier 0-5, 0-4, 0-3, 0-2, 0-1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Harder

A Concealment card moves the To Hit# that many steps to the right in this spectrum: So in your example: To Hit 3 become To Hit of 5 when an Conceal -2 is played.

If the To Hit 0-1, a -2 Conceal would make it To Hit 1.

Two other important Ordnance rules:
- Malfunctions are ONLY checked on the To Hit Draw. These are marked with a lower case x. Once a hit is obtained, any red 6 that comes up does not malfunction the weapon.
- For non AT ordnance weapons (i.e. unboxed effect #'s), the RNC # of the To Hit draw is added (color does not matter) is added to the Effect # of the weapon, ONLY if a 0 would have been a hit. (i.e. The To Hit # is 0-N.)

So if you had a 0-2 To hit with mortar and draw a red 1 to get a hit, the Effect number is 2 + 1 = 3.

However if your opponent played a -3 concealment, making your To Hit # 1, the same 1 would still cause a hit, but it is no longer added, so the effect remains 2.

This accounts for the increased chance of a direct hit at closer ranges. It also means you see most conceal cards played vs. ordnance when the To Hit # is 0-1 or higher, it decreases the chance and possibly the final effect. Whereas in your examples, concealing only makes a low chance of hit even lower. (And it's very annoying when you play a concealment card to turn a miss into a hit!)
Yes, Richard is probably one of the best Up Front experts on the Geek. One thing that helped me understand your conundrum was to look at all the RNC's like it was an integer line with RED 0 through RED 6 starting in the middle and going to the left and BLACK 0 through BLACK 6 going to the right. Effectively, that makes 14 possible placements (or pips on a die if you prefer that analogy) for RNC's. Once you realize that the RNC number distribution is NOT evenly dispersed but that zero (both colors) is the most common RNC and that 6 (both colors) is the least common RNC, the integer line visualization makes more sense. If I'm not mistaken, the closer to the center of the integer line you get (zero), the more likely the RNC. I believe Banzai has a section in the rules that breaks down the exact frequency of all the possible RNC's, among other statistical analysis.

Welcome to the confusion that can be Up Front, but an otherwise awesome game!!
 
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Richard Irving
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Keesvanloomacklin wrote:

Yes, Richard is probably one of the best Up Front experts on the Geek. One thing that helped me understand your conundrum was to look at all the RNC's like it was an integer line with RED 0 through RED 6 starting in the middle and going to the left and BLACK 0 through BLACK 6 going to the right. Effectively, that makes 14 possible placements (or pips on a die if you prefer that analogy) for RNC's. Once you realize that the RNC number distribution is NOT evenly dispersed but that zero (both colors) is the most common RNC and that 6 (both colors) is the least common RNC, the integer line visualization makes more sense. If I'm not mistaken, the closer to the center of the integer line you get (zero), the more likely the RNC.


The RNC distribution is (This is the number of Black and the number of Red RNC's of each number):
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
22 18 14 11 8 5 3


The full distribution of RNC's, seeing red values as negative numbers is mostly bell shaped curve centered on 0, with too many 0's (adding - and subtracting 0 have the same effect.)

So for To hit #'s (when color doesn't matter--when a Black To Hit number is required, halve these numbers):
0-5 0-4 0-3 0-2 0-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
156 146 130 108 80 44 36 28 22 16 10 6


Quote:
I believe Banzai has a section in the rules that breaks down the exact frequency of all the possible RNC's, among other statistical analysis.


A longer version of the article originally appeared in the General 21-1,
 
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