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Subject: How can the US lose the war? - in Europe!! rss

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Greg Schmittgens
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Just finished a game (as the US). The Japanese player got the right War in Europe cards to get WIE up to Level 4 (the worst) by the end of turn 3.

80% chance of troops getting sent to Europe. No APs. Political Will bleeding away every turn.

I didn't see a War in Europe card until turn 7. That one was a Minor Allied Victory.

Needless to say, I didn't get too close to the Home Islands. shake
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Jeff Grossman
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Ouch... I don't want to even try to calculate how bad the odds are of that happening. soblue
 
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Pawel Koziorowski
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The odds of this situation are greater than you can expect. I experienced this situation three times. It's especially annoying for me because there is nothing you can do about it and you just waste your time playing this game. What I can say is that every time WiE drop to Level 4 (or even 3) just stop the game and start anew. There is no point in loosing time and prolonging agony, also you can try a variant proposed by Joel Tamburo http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/511252/a-couple-of-variants-... (but I never try it). I wish Mark incorporate some official rule diminishing effects of WiE in the rules.
 
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Greg Schmittgens
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Well, maybe one turn at level 4 wouldn't be a terminal situation. Perhaps if the US player can't raise it to level 3 by the end of the next turn, pack it in. (in my game, I was dealt a hand on turn 6. No War in Europe cards, but one 'Draw One Strategy Card'. Played the event, drew the card. . .still no War in Europe. I'd had enough.)
 
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Greig Goodfellow
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Yes it is a frustrating event, not only are you getting less cards but the drop on the pow every turn is just when you do not want it. Good thing Hitler made a few mistakes early in the war
 
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Mark Herman
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pawelk wrote:
The odds of this situation are greater than you can expect. I experienced this situation three times. It's especially annoying for me because there is nothing you can do about it and you just waste your time playing this game. What I can say is that every time WiE drop to Level 4 (or even 3) just stop the game and start anew. There is no point in loosing time and prolonging agony, also you can try a variant proposed by Joel Tamburo http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/511252/a-couple-of-variants-... (but I never try it). I wish Mark incorporate some official rule diminishing effects of WiE in the rules.
This has been analyzed extensively and independently confirmed. There are spreadsheets over on CSW if anyone is interested. Here is an independent calculation summary.

Bottom line - One in every 27 games that Allies will face a Level 4 on GT4 and can't do anything about it.

This assumes that the JP ALWAYS play any WiE card as an event, which is a recipe for defeat. To have it happen three times is enormously bad luck.

Regrets on the bad luck,

Mark
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Pawel Koziorowski
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Mark, I know how to calculate probability but probability is a one thing and reality is the other. You can call it bad luck, karma, godsend or whatever.
My point was that if WiE drops to a Level 4 then just stop a game cause today is evidently not you day and start anew. That way you can only waste 3-4 turns and probably have time to finish another EotS game. Yes, of course, you can wait for the card, but I see no point.
WiE mechanism and Progress of War are two aspects of this fantastic game which I don't like but as I see no better pacific war game I wave all my objections aside and always return to EotS.

Pawel K
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Mark Herman
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No criticism was implied or intended. I would offer that the only time this occurred during the CSW staff games about 5 years ago I not only survived but won the game as the Allies. It happens, but for me it is a challenge to overcome.

I appreciate your support for the game.

Mark
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R Ogaki
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pawelk wrote:

My point was that if WiE drops to a Level 4 then just stop a game cause today is evidently not you day and start anew. That way you can only waste 3-4 turns and probably have time to finish another EotS game. Yes, of course, you can wait for the card, but I see no point.
I see that as an exaggeration. First (as Mark mentioned) the situation only comes up a little less than 4% (1/27) of the time (in all other cases, the allied player can influence whether or not WiE hits lvl 4). Second, the consequences of WiE level 4 aren't as dire as you make them out to be. The main problem is the PW hit--but with the Japanese expending most likely 4 cards getting to LvL 4, Burma or the DEI is likely to be unconquered at the end of T4. This saves you a PW that you might otherwise lose.

Furthermore, with the Japanese expansion severely curtailed, IF the allies can survive the temporary PW reduction, they have a much shorter path to Tokyo than they otherwise would. Furthermore, the path to the Philippines and a PW recovery should be much shorter as well.
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Mark Herman
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Very well stated.

Mark
 
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Greg Schmittgens
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The only thing I would take issue with is:

remosu37 wrote:
The main problem is the PW hit
I feel like the main problem is the lack of APs, which contributes to difficulty maintaining the Progress of the War, which, in turn, impacts PW.

To be clear, all I was saying is I got hit by a small but valid statistical sample. And it hurt!!
 
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