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A Game of Thrones (first edition)» Forums » General

Subject: the dread pirate quinn (AGOT greyjoy opener) rss

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Tagore Nakornchai
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No sensible Lannister player would leave Lannisport vulnerable with that amount of Greyjoy march flying around. It would be clear to Lannister that you're gunning for an attack either on Riverrun or Lannisport.

A standard Lannister opening is Raid in the Golden Sound, Raid in Lannisport (Jaime), Support +1 in stoney sept, and hold territory as a first flip - hold territory is by far the most obvious Lannister flip, because Lannister needs to hold Lannisport, Riverrun AND the Golden Sound. The problem with your plan is that Lannister can see what you're doing and then react accordingly. A movement order on te fleet in Ironman's Bay would prompt Lannister to swap to a Defence +2 order in the Golden Sound. That, combined with Hold Westeros becomes a base strength of 4 - and there's no way you can crush that fleet AND still be able to convoy your men across. If you decide to go for Riverrun, Lannister would get there first (second in the turn order track)- Lannister can count 9 strength in riverrun (3 from the armies, 2 from support, 2 from leaders and 2 from hold territory) - and there's no way you can overcome that with your force of 5 strength at greywater watch.

You are also completely ignoring Stark - the Stark player would be rubbing his hands in glee at this kind of opening - you're gearing up for a fight with Lannister and leaving your entire northern flank undefended. Even if your attack does succeed (which is doubtful), you've basically left Stark unmolested at Moat Cailin, which is right next to seagard. Since you're busy fighting Lannister (and Stark has nothing better to do), Stark will most likely come after you, and even with the ships in Ironman's Bay supporting you, you'll be very hard-pressed to beat both Stark and Lannister.
 
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Tagore Nakornchai
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Once Lannister is nice and safe in Riverrun, Lannister can support from Lannisport and start accumulating power in Stoney Sept and possibly Harrenhal. Once a muster comes up, Lannister will have plenty of forces to fend you off, and you'll now have Stark to contend with.
 
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